Future of the Evora in the USA

[Julian73]

4 hours ago, name_bran said:

And I read we were getting an Evora Roadster and a full-on GT430. You just never know until it happens right? 😂

Oh I read that Jeffery Epstein was considered a Saint in some circles.

[Simon Bateman]

15 hours ago, C8RKH said:

I read today that Lotus will be an electric only brand within 10 years. So sad. 🤮🤢😓

Hate to say it, but I think this may prove to be the case.

I've noticed an ever increasing acceptance of electric vehicles, even in Petrol head circles such as this.  I think the car industry has reached a tipping point and I've been saying for some time that our next daily will be petrol and maybe the one after than.....thereafter, I'm not sure.

Much as I'm happy to 'sensibly' do my bit to save Johnny polar bear and all that, but some of the stuff at the moment is just plain bonkers.....no burgers at that University, paper/plastic straws at MD.  Royals having an ECO sized family only.

Can't help that think whatever we do in this country/Europe, it will have little consequence in the overall scheme of things once the 2.75 billion people in China and India have done their worst.

[C8RKH]

30 minutes ago, Simon Bateman said:

Hate to say it, but I think this may prove to be the case.

I've noticed an ever increasing acceptance of electric vehicles, even in Petrol head circles such as this.  I think the car industry has reached a tipping point and I've been saying for some time that our next daily will be petrol and maybe the one after than.....thereafter, I'm not sure.

Much as I'm happy to 'sensibly' do my bit to save Johnny polar bear and all that, but some of the stuff at the moment is just plain bonkers.....no burgers at that University, paper/plastic straws at MD.  Royals having an ECO sized family only.

Can't help that think whatever we do in this country/Europe, it will have little consequence in the overall scheme of things once the 2.75 billion people in China and India have done their worst.

I think the light at the end of the tunnel will come on when the environmental impact of mining etc the minerals and elements needed gets some focus. We've had dirty oil for a 100years and the impact of extraction is understood. Once people see the destruction and human suffering of things like Cobalt mining in the DRC maybe attitudes will change!

[Simon Bateman]

I think many people are sceptical already about the ethics involved with the procurement of materials required, such as the cobalt you mention and of the course the general infrastructure required to enable re-charging in a workable and acceptable time frame.

I wonder if it will be too late to change course before the full story and issues are common place and fully transparent.

I for one will probably not be flipping cars quite so quickly in the future, if and when the end of the ICE becomes likely.

 

[Loquacious Lew]

My future with Lotus in the USA anticipates keeping the car I have.  Anything new will be an addition.  I don't know what they are planning to replace the current line with.  Does anybody?     I expect that whatever ink has already been expended predicting that the company will maintain its focus on lightweight traditionally featured IC sports cars is based on an era that is soon to die, if it's not dead already.  Prepare for the sea change to a company that is focused on different values.  

The Evija proves that since it is being touted as a harbinger.    Happy to be wrong and well could be as my prediction is based simply on gut feel.  But I think I'm right.

[PeterM]

Interesting discussion.  I owned one of the first Evoras sold in the US in 2010, and now own an E400, both manuals, and have owned and driven manual cars for over 40 years, both for sports cars and daily drivers. (My current daily driver is a Volvo Polestar V60, which is only available in auto, unfortunately.)  Obviously, I love the Evora and the involvement that comes with the manual and I hope that Evora MTs  hold their value over time as I plan to keep this car for a long time.  I’ll play “devils advocate”, however, and say that maybe they won’t because so few members of the next generation of car enthusiasts know, or even care to learn, how to drive a manual, at least in the US. Who is going to buy our cars (and drive up demand for manuals over autos) when we no longer want or are able to drive them?  Or will traffic be so clogged that autos are simply the better choice?  That is, of course, not a problem unique to Lotus Evoras, but is something I have been thinking about for a while now.

[Likuid]

Always hard to predict. I mean its possible that if Lotus is able to rebuild their brand into something close to the big boys then older (at that point in time) Toyota-powered Lotus may become more desirable partly or mainly for the LOTUS badge. If that's the case you may see Evoras become more in demand and more desirable to people who maybe can't afford a new Lotus, but still want to own one. In that case you may be right, those people may be less inclined towards a manual.

[name_bran]

Just look at used Ferraris and Lamborghinis from the mid 2000s and older. Look at the 90s era Japanese sports car giants. The manuals command a big premium. And that premium will only increase over time as enthusiasts who prefer autos will continue to look past cars with dated rough/slow-shifting single clutch, early dual clutch, and torque converter automatics in favor of the fastest shifting dual clutches available. As time marches on, older automatics such as the Aisin units used in the Evora will continue to be looked upon as the weak link in an otherwise perfectly analog sports car. Manual transmission technology has peaked and it will always be desirable similar to how a hand crafted analog watch will be desirable long after your Apple Watch Series 4. And I never did get the traffic argument either. Traffic sucks no matter what transmission, engine, or even car you’re in. If you’re buying a sports car and your highest priority is how well it does in traffic either get a second car or consider something different if you can’t afford more than one. 

[Bruss]

"such as the Aisin units used in the Evora will continue to be looked upon as the weak link in an otherwise perfectly analog sports car. "

This applies to both the manual and auto units though. Neither were designed for sports car use, and they both do a job, but no more than that. 

 

 

[Ccd]

Name_bran:

What you are saying is certainly true today, but I’m not sure it will be true in the future.  The people who can afford to buy exotic used cars are generally an older generation who remember and perhaps drove manuals in their youth.  Most in the generation behind them have never owned a manual and probably can’t operate one.  That will only become increasingly true over time.  Will that impact the value of manuals?  I honestly don’t know, but it could.

[C8RKH]

In the US maybe, but here in the UK and indeed many parts of Europe the manual is king, and auto's are a lot less common.  Auto's generally tend to be bought by the older generation who can't be arsed using the gear stick, or, by German sports car buyers who prefer the bragging rights about how fast their flappy paddles will change gear.

Just my opinion of course.

[Loquacious Lew]

I went to Nashville's Cars and Coffee yesterday.  I've only attended a handful of times and those were all shortly after I first bought the car so it had been a while.  The car always attracts attention and that was no less true two years ago but the response it got yesterday was, if anything, greater than it received when it was brand new and the only Evora in town.  People knew exactly what it was,  that it had become a darling of many reviewers and enthusiasts and that it had a reputation as being great fun to drive. The reputation of the Evora is more widely acknowledged and better understood now than it was when the 400 series were first introduced.  

The Evora is being elevated as a potential future collectible even as the last ones are being manufactured and delivered.  The days of cheap Evoras will eventually  come to an end when production ceases and the last cars are finally scooped up.  Our cars are not cheap even when fully discounted by resellers.  They will remain an aspirational object going forward, if not at the elevated level of a Pista or a Performante.  It will take a bit of patience, but I believe we can count on it.  The manuals will command a premium, just as they do now. Nobody cares if the Aisin was  built for a truck. If you own one, you understand why.  The tranny works fine and is suited to purpose. The Evora was never going to be a 450 lb.ft. 500 HP car.  It is a vehicle whose appeal is based on balance.  That won't change in the future. 

[Julian73]

3 hours ago, Ccd said:

Name_bran:

What you are saying is certainly true today, but I’m not sure it will be true in the future.  The people who can afford to buy exotic used cars are generally an older generation who remember and perhaps drove manuals in their youth.  Most in the generation behind them have never owned a manual and probably can’t operate one.  That will only become increasingly true over time.  Will that impact the value of manuals?  I honestly don’t know, but it could.

This is my feelings that the next generation of buyers of cars of their youth will not want a manual because they never encountered such.

3 hours ago, C8RKH said:

In the US maybe, but here in the UK and indeed many parts of Europe the manual is king, and auto's are a lot less common.  Auto's generally tend to be bought by the older generation who can't be arsed using the gear stick, or, by German sports car buyers who prefer the bragging rights about how fast their flappy paddles will change gear.

Just my opinion of course.

You say that however sales figures disagree, thus the reason so few sports cars are even available with manuals now.  Once you move up from the econo car, Autos outsell manuals even in Europe.

[Ccd]

Loquatious Lew:

I follow used Evora prices in the US and there is presently little indication that the Evora is going to be a future classic, at least in the US market.  Now that may change.  My feeling for sometime has been that the last great analogue cars will command a high price.  And we have seen evidence of that in other brands.  A manual Audi R8 commands a premium and you can typically add $50,000 or more for a Ferrari manual.  But the value of the manual might not be the manual, but the fact that fewer of them were made and thus they are more valuable simply because they are more rare.

 I have not seen this apply to Lotus in manual or otherwise.  What I have seen is that an Evora will depreciate rather rapidly to some price point and then not move down much from there.  The first generation Evora appear to have depreciated to the $40-$50k range and then don’t drop much from there.  Hard to say what the 400 will do as it is too new to see any concrete trends.  I can say that picking up a 2017 Evora 400 in the $70-$80k range is easily done.  How much it will drop from there is hard to say.

 

[21gg]

One point regarding autos and dct gearboxes. I read an intetesting article related to emmisions. Manual gearboxes would be tested to a set criteria, automatics by test definition were left to work automatically, therefore gave better c02 figures. The dct gave you an auto which gave a lower c02 but also manual control when required. With the new c02 assessment i dont know if that's still the case but believe this is one of the leading reasons behind development. 

[name_bran]

A couple other points to be made here as well:

1) Evoras aren’t for posers. When you’re looking into buying one, you’ve done your research. You know exactly what you’re getting. And you don’t want a Ferrari, Lamborghini, or McLaren. You also don’t want a Corvette or a Cayman or other more common sports cars. You know there are cheaper cars out there that are quicker/faster. And you know there are similarly priced cars that are way more well-known and carry way more brand presence/easier to service/maintain. You’re not buying an Evora because you couldn’t get a good deal that other sports car you wanted. You’ve got to be committed as hell to get into Evora ownership. And that includes second hand owners as well-maybe even moreso because they’ll be the ones who have to do all the upkeep as the cars get into the higher miles. When you’re buying an Evora you’re most likely looking for a super analog sports car that still has up-to-date tech inside. And that’s why the analog transmission will be more sought after versus the automatic.

2) the manual has a limited slip diff lets not forget. That means something to those planning to track their cars. And it just looks good on paper.

Those old first generation F1 transmissions and early dual clutches have not been kind to the resale values of any other exotic. The Evora will be no different. Auto reviewers already talk down on the automatic in the Evora today, imagine how it’s going to feel in another 5 years when shifts get even quicker. Imagine 10 years. The Evora is a brilliant driving machine regardless of transmission and there’s nothing else like it on the road, but there’s no doubt in my mind which one will hold its value better or which will be more fun to drive in 20 years long after the manual is dead and DCTs are shifting in .00001s. 

[Julian73]

2 hours ago, name_bran said:

A couple other points to be made here as well:

1) Evoras aren’t for posers. When you’re looking into buying one, you’ve done your research. You know exactly what you’re getting. And you don’t want a Ferrari, Lamborghini, or McLaren. You also don’t want a Corvette or a Cayman or other more common sports cars. You know there are cheaper cars out there that are quicker/faster. And you know there are similarly priced cars that are way more well-known and carry way more brand presence/easier to service/maintain. You’re not buying an Evora because you couldn’t get a good deal that other sports car you wanted. You’ve got to be committed as hell to get into Evora ownership. And that includes second hand owners as well-maybe even moreso because they’ll be the ones who have to do all the upkeep as the cars get into the higher miles. When you’re buying an Evora you’re most likely looking for a super analog sports car that still has up-to-date tech inside. And that’s why the analog transmission will be more sought after versus the automatic.

2) the manual has a limited slip diff lets not forget. That means something to those planning to track their cars. And it just looks good on paper.

Those old first generation F1 transmissions and early dual clutches have not been kind to the resale values of any other exotic. The Evora will be no different. Auto reviewers already talk down on the automatic in the Evora today, imagine how it’s going to feel in another 5 years when shifts get even quicker. Imagine 10 years. The Evora is a brilliant driving machine regardless of transmission and there’s nothing else like it on the road, but there’s no doubt in my mind which one will hold its value better or which will be more fun to drive in 20 years long after the manual is dead and DCTs are shifting in .00001s. 

I agree with your points except for one point, unfortunately in 20 yrs we will not have DCT's shifting in .00001sec, we will be in autonomous driving cars using EV

[ramjet]

Think Johnnycab.  

[Loquacious Lew]

19 hours ago, Ccd said:

Loquatious Lew:

I follow used Evora prices in the US and there is presently little indication that the Evora is going to be a future classic, at least in the US market.  Now that may change.  My feeling for sometime has been that the last great analogue cars will command a high price.  And we have seen evidence of that in other brands.  A manual Audi R8 commands a premium and you can typically add $50,000 or more for a Ferrari manual.  But the value of the manual might not be the manual, but the fact that fewer of them were made and thus they are more valuable simply because they are more rare.

 I have not seen this apply to Lotus in manual or otherwise.  What I have seen is that an Evora will depreciate rather rapidly to some price point and then not move down much from there.  The first generation Evora appear to have depreciated to the $40-$50k range and then don’t drop much from there.  Hard to say what the 400 will do as it is too new to see any concrete trends.  I can say that picking up a 2017 Evora 400 in the $70-$80k range is easily done.  How much it will drop from there is hard to say.

 

I don't think current resale conditions have much bearing on what the future holds for late model Evoras any more than they did for bevel drive Ducatis (gave 'em away when new) or other such slow selling now very desirable  vehicles.  

The 2017s were not beneficiaries of routine positive press, and certainly not at introduction.  Lotus' inability to promote them was not a boon to sales.  The thinly scattered sales and service network makes a Lotus purchase an act of courage in the USA, further depressing prices. Yet  two years later the '17s are commanding what they did when new a year  after first  deliveries when they weren't shifting off the floor for $75K or less.  Now you can only buy a used one (be it ever so lightly used or with warranty  punched but vehicle  unregistered). There is currently one new (assume it's punched but unregistered) '17 Evora currently listed on Autotrader.  Consider what the same search looked like just 12 months ago.  All the rest (and there are but a handful) are advertised as used, and none are listed below $75K.  That's roughly equal to (or more?) than  the new price of many of the listings a year ago  since we know that some were sold in the low 70s.  (What a deal that seems now). You can't get a 2020GT anywhere near that money but a '17 is pretty much the same vehicle and easily upgraded if desired. Same for the 18s which I think currently represent the best deals on a new Evora list to sell price.  And there are so few of them that they are barely a blip on the screen.  

I'm not suggesting 4xxs will become '62 GTOs (although what would you rather drive everyday?) but the steep slope of depreciation while sitting on the lot seems to have  been arrested if the national sales sites are to be believed.  Of course, advertised vs. sales price are two different things but I think we're either nearing or  past peak Evora  availability and prices should be stronger from here. Naturally I expect some continuing depreciation of my car as I continue to add miles but assuming I don't thrash it and use it as one typically does a fun car, I don't think there is much financial risk in it.  Less  than with a Cayman or a cooking grade Porsche in fact and better than a typical Vantage, Bentley, Alfa, Jag etc. Frankly, I think our cars stand a far greater chance to appreciate than any of those.  

Lotus cars except for the most significant  have rarely achieved the  prominence and prices that have characterized other exotics but then, they never cost as much from new.   I don't expect anybody to ever fork over $200K for my Evora.  But buying a car for $85K. (or less) in 2017 and finding it listed for  70-75K used two years later is a positive sign. If (a big if) people are still collecting cars in ten or fifteen years, the Evora has every quality that will attract those interested in fun to drive, easy to maintain, rare and handsome cars.  If in fact (again!)  there is a market for such things in 10 or 20 years,.  This remains a question in my mind for many  reasons  but is worth pondering. Does one actually believe collectible gas powered cars will always be a thing in the future?   Are the bulk of attainable "collectibles" to be viewed as stable long term investments?  I am not  sure, but if they are,  I contend there will be a seat at the table for the Evora.   

In my calculation future means future...not this year....not next year.  Be patient Grasshopper!  I say the fat lady has not yet sung.  Oh....and people will want the manual because that's a character multiplier. It's not for everyone but all we need is "one more buyer than there are cars."  That's an easy to imagine scenario when less than 500 of them exist in the country.

[C8RKH]

22 hours ago, Julian73 said:

You say that however sales figures disagree, thus the reason so few sports cars are even available with manuals now.  Once you move up from the econo car, Autos outsell manuals even in Europe.

I disagree. Just like with the diseasel lies the manufacturers have steered the sheep into the field of THEIR choice, not the sheeps.  You can't say that autos outsell manuals in the Euro total market then use that yo justify why autos sell more than manuals in the sports car segment. Porsche, VW, Mercedes, Audi, all push massively torquey bi turbo diseasels with flappy paddles as the default. The dealers position them accordingly and bam, the sheep are converted.  However, the fight back is happening lol....

[ken2020]

This a nice conversation but  " Who buys a Evora for Resale value?" Many reasons to buy a Evora but resale isn't one of them.  It's a true sport car. It's analog and damn proud of it!  It may have it's problems but the Evora is definitely a true Lotus by any definition.  Sure, I'm a frustrated Lotus owner but that's all part of the experience😓  I already have a perfect self driving EV.  I'll buy a EV pick up when they come out in a year or two to pull my Evora on my car trailer😜. EV's are economical IMO and easy to live with.  EV's are great for getting groceries but will never trump the feeling of my Evora. 

[Likuid]

On 18/08/2019 at 23:42, name_bran said:

A couple other points to be made here as well:

1) Evoras aren’t for posers. When you’re looking into buying one, you’ve done your research. You know exactly what you’re getting. And you don’t want a Ferrari, Lamborghini, or McLaren. You also don’t want a Corvette or a Cayman or other more common sports cars. You know there are cheaper cars out there that are quicker/faster. And you know there are similarly priced cars that are way more well-known and carry way more brand presence/easier to service/maintain. You’re not buying an Evora because you couldn’t get a good deal that other sports car you wanted. You’ve got to be committed as hell to get into Evora ownership. And that includes second hand owners as well-maybe even moreso because they’ll be the ones who have to do all the upkeep as the cars get into the higher miles. When you’re buying an Evora you’re most likely looking for a super analog sports car that still has up-to-date tech inside. And that’s why the analog transmission will be more sought after versus the automatic.

2) the manual has a limited slip diff lets not forget. That means something to those planning to track their cars. And it just looks good on paper.

Those old first generation F1 transmissions and early dual clutches have not been kind to the resale values of any other exotic. The Evora will be no different. Auto reviewers already talk down on the automatic in the Evora today, imagine how it’s going to feel in another 5 years when shifts get even quicker. Imagine 10 years. The Evora is a brilliant driving machine regardless of transmission and there’s nothing else like it on the road, but there’s no doubt in my mind which one will hold its value better or which will be more fun to drive in 20 years long after the manual is dead and DCTs are shifting in .00001s. 

To be fair to the auto in regards to reviewers. I have seen very, very few reviews of auto Evoras, especially 400 or newer. Most reviewers say "if you get a car like this, it should be a manual".  I doubt any of them even drove the auto version.

That being said...

I own an auto 400 and I agree with you. I do think due to the nature of the Evora that the manual versions will hold there value better. The only way I see the auto holding value close to the manual in the long run is if the Lotus brand makes a huge jump into the Ferrari, Lambo, McLaren territory. If this happens then the Evora will for sure become a car for some posers. People who want a car with a Lotus badge, but in no way could ever afford a new one. I am not saying these posers will bring the Evora values up to collector values or even their original value. But due to the rarity of the Evora combined with this (theoretical) new found demand for anything Lotus I could see values for both manual and auto holding quite well, at least in the US market, which seems more accepting of autos. Of course at this point this may be a long shot as Lotus still has a lot of work to do to bring the brand up to prominence and that could be decade down the road.

Edited August 20, 2019 by Likuid

[Julian73]

12 hours ago, C8RKH said:

I disagree. Just like with the diseasel lies the manufacturers have steered the sheep into the field of THEIR choice, not the sheeps.  You can't say that autos outsell manuals in the Euro total market then use that yo justify why autos sell more than manuals in the sports car segment. Porsche, VW, Mercedes, Audi, all push massively torquey bi turbo diseasels with flappy paddles as the default. The dealers position them accordingly and bam, the sheep are converted.  However, the fight back is happening lol....

All told it is CAFE rates that govern the mix of cars built, not the consumer.  Automatics/ old style, DCT, etc) are more efficient because that are more predictable and can be forced into an algorithm for the fuel milage and emissions testing cycle, a manual is too random to the finer tweet.

[au-yt]

On 18/08/2019 at 13:57, Likuid said:

Always hard to predict. I mean its possible that if Lotus is able to rebuild their brand into something close to the big boys then older (at that point in time) Toyota-powered Lotus may become more desirable partly or mainly for the LOTUS badge. If that's the case you may see Evoras become more in demand and more desirable to people who maybe can't afford a new Lotus, but still want to own one. In that case you may be right, those people may be less inclined towards a manual.

Your comment echos what The Aussie dealer principal suggested to me.

As for the Manual V Auto debate Porsche reintroduced a 7 speed manual due customer demand, and seriously this subject has been done to addnorsium on every motoring form so It all boils down to personal choice....😴

[C8RKH]

Looks like manual is not dead.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/under-skin-why-volkswagen-bringing-back-manual-gearboxes

Also, pistonheads seem to echo some thoughts from here re where Lotus could/should play.

https://www.pistonheads.com/regulars/blog/where-is-europes-corvette-ph-footnote/40790