Brexit

[franjipane]

@C8RKH you are absolutely right both leave and remain campaigns have been spreading lies and misdirection.  When i posted originally about this i didn't accuse just 1 of the campaigns, I implied that they're all it.  And I pointed towards an impartial analysis from someone not involved in either campaign.

You say i've not posted any of my opinions but I've suggested in response to a post about EU students leaving the country and not paying back student loans, that a solution would be to work more closely with other EU countries to ensure those debts are honoured.  In the same post i also said the EU definitely needs reform.  I've not tried to change anyone's opinions or said i think anyone is wrong.  I respect that everyone has different opinions.  I'm pleased you feel strongly about the issue and have formed your own opinions, and i appreciate the discussion.

The breaking point poster which Farage stood in front of does look like Nazi propaganda -

 

You ask - "so what does Cameron telling every citizen in the country that Brexit could result in war with Europe resemble?"

Well, It looks like totally unfounded and dangerous scaremongering clearly!  Hence both sides are at it.

As you've asked for more of my opinions here they are, and some responses to yours.  Apologies for any spelling mistakes i'm on lunch and posting hastily!

"What trading arrangements will be put in place, is unknown. What will happen to British citizens residing currently in the rEU and EU citizens residing currently in the UK, is largely unknown. These "unknowns" are actually FACTS!"

Yep it is a fact that what will happen if we leave the EU is largely unknown.  But there are some indications we can look at to try and make some informed decisions.

"Anything else that is said, by either party, is just bluster and bullshit. And EU member politicians like the French PM, Merkel, the Dutch PM, the Spanish PM etc can all go and take a flying jump over the cliffs of Dover as they themselves are just blustering as they do not know what the outcome will be. This is a FACT."

If someone speaks of their intentions then that's not bullshit, it's what they intend to do.  It might not happen but that doesn't mean the person is speaking bullshit.  But you're right there has been a tremendous amount of bullshit in the build up to the 23rd from both sides!  But some of it is clearly not bullshit...  if Obama says there will be no bilateral trade deal with the US anytime soon if we leave the EU then that doesn't sound like bullshit.  He knows the US could form a trade deal with Britain but if we pull out of the EU that is not what the US wants and it would hold up any trade agreements for years and he would rather that didn't happen.  Clinton has aligned with Obama here, and Trump and Sanders have both said they dislike trade deals.  Thats not going to be good for the British economy in the short term.  The US wants to keep our relationship as it is and for Britain to help the EU become more receptive to US trade, if we aren't in the EU then we are less useful to the US.

Staying in the EU is more of a known quantity for the fact that it is the status quo.  Any negotiations regarding reform of the EU are easier because it is already the status quo.  It's not going to be a walk over though and as i said it definitely does need reform.  I don't think Cameron is the person to do it, nor the current government as a whole, this government has proved to be absolutely disastrous everyone in the country bar the few who earn the most.

"A strong, adaptable and well educated workforce. An open door for migrant workers who have brought skills, drive and ambition. Sensible labour laws that provide a degree of protection for the workforce whilst providing an attractive environment for companies to recruit, grow, and retreat from with restricted liabilities."

Absolutely agree, a lot of that is down to being in the EU for example the labour laws that this government clearly didn't want came form the EU.  I like those laws that protect working people.  They would almost certainly disappear if we leave the EU and hand more control to the Tories.

You mention France, Spain, Italy and Greece and some of the bad points of these countries economic situations and Governments, and I agree, some of those countries are not in a good state, but, when you say -

"They are reducing, not growing economies. They are massively indebted. They are being crippled by the Euro currency, which only really, suits Germany."

France 1.2

Italy 0.8

Spain 3.1

Greece -2.3

UK 2.5

Only Greece has a declining GDP, the others are growing, Spain even faster than the UK. - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_real_GDP_growth_rate

At this point it's worth pointing out that our GDP could be much higher if the Tories hadn't chosen the path of austerity cuts.  As other countries that didn't follow the last recession with such cuts have shown.

Something else, everyone knows large amounts of money are moved around so corporations and the wealthy to benefit from lower taxes.  In the EU there are rules to prevent this and so leaving the EU would open up this sort of immoral tax avoidance even more so.

It's true as you say that we import a lot more from the EU than we export back to the EU.  You say that means the EU needs us more than we need them.  But i think it's the opposite because, in total the EU exports only 6.6% to Britain representing a tiny amount of total EU exports which won't be missed much and could be replaced as it's such a small amount.  On the other hand the EU accounts for 51.4% of Britain's total exports, which means we depend on the EU a lot more than they depend on us.  I think it will be difficult to replace such a huge amount of export deficit on good terms.

Looking at the kind of trade agreements Norway and Switzerland have with the EU, as they have such weak bartering positions as we would if we left, they are forced to accept many of the EU laws without being able to negotiate terms.  Norway says it has to accept around 75% of EU laws, including the ones requiring them to accept EU immigrants.  So if we left we would either have to accept the same EU laws regarding things like immigration in order to keep trading on the EU market, or give up being able to trade with the EU.

So trading with other market, this brings us back to the Britain-United States trade issue i mentioned above.  Our biggest trade partner has made their intentions post-brexit clear.

Whatever happens, it's definitely going to be interesting!  And i could be wrong on lots of things here, but this is what i think after having done a bunch of reading.  And I'm not trying to 'convert' you or anyone else, this is just what i think!

[Chillidoggy]

I've just done a straw poll at work, and whilst everyone roundly condemned the murder of Jo Cox, it hasn't changed their opinions of the EU, and neither did Farage's poster; every last one of them still wants to leave.

And it looks like the majority of Kent does, too.

http://www.kentonline.co.uk/kent/news/kent-backs-brexit-97358/

 

[C8RKH]

Maybe you should be trying to convert me @franjipane!

Some of what you have said rings true, however, some of it does not. It is easy for people to say to you can't have this, or won't give you that now, BEFORE, the decision. It is so much harder to hold that line once we have taken the decision. A serious and big question is IF we decide to BREXIT, who will be next?  There are several countries on the brink of looking at leaving, and some moving that way. The Swiss have already said no to joining. If the UK decides to leave, then I can see questions being seriously asked in Denmark and the Netherlands. A UK exit would bring further economic chaos to France probably pushing it further to the right and then, a potential exit. Over 50% of French people want out of the EU as it is. It is not as popular as it was, even, in France.

If the EU was just a "trading community", I would be all for it. But this stealthy, openly admitted, non democratic march towards a European Federal Superstate is in my opinion a disaster waiting to happen. And for that reason mainly, I am out.

One final ironic thing re immigration as you mentioned it. The best immigration we ever had in the UK was in the 50's from the Caribean and Africa, the mid 60's on from India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh.  These immigrants came here to build a better life. They made the effort to integrate and in many many places that effort was reciprocated and we had relatively good relations. They were diligent and hard working and instilled in their children the value of education as a means to getting on. It is by no coincidence that a lot of our senior doctors, surgeons, consultants, lawyers, and other "professions" have a large representation from these groups. They bloody well worked hard, they contributed, and now they are reaping the benefits. We had many Polish who came here in the noughties, and they by and large brought a desire to work and a work ethic and many of them have built a good, prosperous life. Exactly as it should be. However, it is now really hard for these people to come here as we have a growing number of "benefit" tourists from other parts of the EU, so immigration from other areas, outside of the EU is tightened, by the EU, and so we are less able to allow immigration from say our peers in the Commonwealth, and we have to let anyone in from the EU regardless of whether they can support themselves or not - how can that be right and just? This is not good for the UK in the long term.

The EU could be great, however, like communism, it is building a two tier society - the political elites (in communism terms, the party members and their families) get rich and drunk on status, wealth, preferential treatment - for christ's sake these un-elected leaches even legislated themselves a super low tax rate! - and the rest - the workers, the work shy, the sick, etc.  20 years from now the failure of the EU collective will make the failure of communism in the Eastern Block look like a non event unless we change the course of the EU. And we will not do that by staying, there are too many vested interests in keeping the gravy flowing in the train.

Cameron, Corbyn, Salmon, Sturgeon - ALL of them, prior to this year, had previously been Euro Sceptics, and now we are expected to believe, after years of anti-EU rhetoric and sceptism from them, that staying in the EU is a good thing.  Hmmm, let me think about that for a while.

 

 

[franjipane]

Total respect for your response mate, I guess what it comes down to is interpreting the information available in different ways.  I'm still positive that the best course is changing the EU from within and strengthening our position with the US and elsewhere, but i've no issue with others thinking differently!

[C8RKH]

Oh and as for Obama and Clinton and the US - let's just hope they don't need to fight a war anytime soon, at least until they've done a trade deal with us as by my reckoning the only wars they've ever won in the past 70 years are the ones we buddied up with them on! Yup, that's right, a tin pot, shitty little island colony with a population the size of say New York State was the difference between the world's greatest superpower winning, or losing.  

Good luck going with the Dutch, the French, the Spanish or the Italians, etc., as they've always been ready to stand by you. I wish you well Obama and Clinton.

Wow, I need to go and lie down and take a nap before I bust a blood vessel in my toe... 

[Andyww]

I am not normally one for conspiracy theories but the more I see on the news and think about this tragedy, the more this does not add up at all. 

 

[Barrykearley]

Next you'll be questioning a certain car crash in Paris !

[Barrykearley]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36567469

oh my gosh - what utter b£lo£cks

fine - keep your cars, garlic, cheese and wine then - we don't want it..........

[C8RKH]

The last line says it all!

"In the event of Brexit, Europe should "act fast to avoid other countries starting a similar process", he said"

 

THIS is what these people are really worried about - UK votes leave and they know we will not be the last...

[Barrykearley]

Sounds like a communist almost Stalinist controlling superstate - get a grip - let have bloody democracy that millions of people died for my right to have. Let's not forget........

When You Go Home, Tell Them Of Us And Say,
For Your Tomorrow, We Gave Our Today

[Barrykearley]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-kent-36567396

so the French stop an aid convoy going out of the U.K. To France ?? Yet they can't stop untold quantities of illegal migrants coming out of their country to ours.

an absolute bloody disgrace..... The sooner we are out of this corrupt club the better for everyone

[Chillidoggy]

The realisation that the EU steam gravy-train has pulled into Barry Island for scrap is finally dawning on them.

[Barrykearley]

Went there to see the old steam trains as a kid many times - and remember the owners blue roller well

ironically enough - I think it's all been regenerated with eu cash !!

[Andyww]

Had the misfortune to see Bob Geldof play live last night at the Rock n Horsepower festival at Hurtwood Park. 

He was a foul-mouthed knob. A couple of good songs and then degenerated into some kind of ranting maniac. Then gave a 5 minute tirade full of bile and hatred blaming Nigel Farage for Jo Cox's death. He seemed completely unaware of the irony, ranting about hatred while being full of it himself.

He ruined a great day. By the time he finished around half the audience had gone and we found there were only 3 other cars out of around 150 left in the classic car parking when we left. I dont know why we stayed to the end and I wish we hadnt.

Its so depressing when so many people, like him, are too thick to think things through. Does he not understand that the EU acts directly against the poor in Africa for example?

The problem is, many people, who are uninterested and only look at the surface, will owing to recent events turn to Remain. I think we are about to lose this one-off opportunity. The leavers will doubtless be proved right though over the coming years if we remain and the EU will surely break up eventually.

Hitchens gets it spot on:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-3648666/PETER-HITCHENS-s-faint-chance-nation-one-day.html

[C8RKH]

Geldoff is just like many of our politicians just too far removed from the real word to really understand why people are worried about the EU and the direction its politics are moving in.

Geldoff and many of these "celebrities" that get involved in politics (think Bono and others) are just doing it for self gratification and ego reasons, it makes them think people will respect and revere them when in fact many of us just look at them with disdain and as fading imitations of what they once really stood for, before the millions they made corrupted them.

I'll be glad when this is all over and the decision in made, one way or the other. I suspect though that if we do vote to leave, we will be forced to go through the whole process again next year with a "new deal" being put on the table for us to consider. After all, isn't that what happened in Ireland when the referendum first time round did not deliver the "right" answer? I may be recalling that wrong though, I'm getting old!

 

[Chillidoggy]

I agree. The Remain camp should vote Out, and then sit back and wait for the subsequent renegotiation.

[Andyww]

At these festivals, it is customary for the last band to thank Kenney and Jane Jones for organising the event, which is in aid of Prostate Cancer UK, and bring them on stage.

But not a peep from Geldof. This confirms the point about it all being to do with "virtue signalling". Is all about him. The people who have given their past year (In the case of Jane) to organise this charity event get no consideration from him at all. 

Mike Rutherford on the other hand came back on stage after he played, to expressly thank The Joneses.

[C8RKH]

It'll never happen Ian as they are too dumb to realise that an out vote would send the EU into a tail spin and we would of course get a re-negotiated deal to then re-vote on. A "leave" vote is exactly the kind of short, sharp, shock that the EU gravy train sippers need to shake them out of their well appointed palaces.

[Barrykearley]

Geldof is as corrupt and hypocritical as the kinnocks.

the issue is when these folks get money they simple forget the hard times and the folks working at the bottom of society. 

I for one hope the media get him more involved in the remain campaign - bellends like him are needed more than ever in this !!

[Andyww]

11 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

 

the issue is when these folks get money they simple forget the hard times and the folks working at the bottom of society. 

I for one hope the media get him more involved in the remain campaign - bellends like him are needed more than ever in this !!

I bet somewhere in the BBC there is the recording of Geldof on Question Time last week which was never broadcast which is an absolute car-crash.

But this need for virtue signalling is not always about money. A couple of people I know are heavily into this and constantly post obnoxious stuff on Facebook. Not sure if this is relevant in any way but the one thing they do have in common is they used to, or maybe still do, use large quantities of weed. I think it dulls peoples ability for rational thought.

[Barrykearley]

I wouldn't say the weed is the issue - it certainly does cause problems though.

my two pennyth worth is that folks lack empathy and have an overwhelmingy dose of entitlement. This can be seen from the bottom to the very top.

i for one am grateful for what I have, I think I am very lucky everytime I drive my material things fast, feel happy when I'm seeing my kids thrive and when I'm out in the city and see a homeless chap will always buy them a sandwich and a drink.

i realise all these things could evaporate easily, realise I will be dead one day and that you must make the best of it.

no matter what - I still stand by the fact that hard work and contribution is needed by all of society......

[Barrykearley]

Camerons now saying taxes will go up if we leave !!! Yeah yeah yeah - your forgetting we will not be sending a shed load of cash to the Eu.

oh also we need to be in the Eu or terrorist threat will rise - what a load of rollocks - like brexit will mean we will immediately stop sharing security information.

this is really getting tedious now - lies lies and spin. Come the revolution - the only politicians that seems credible are the brexit ones.......

As for Nicola sturgeon - how any politician that campaigns for independent Scotland can be campaigning for the European Union - come on - that's like pigs campaigning for bacon !!

[C8RKH]

The World as we know it is apparently going to end on Friday of this week when the UK votes to leave the EU.

Apparently, the disruption in the cosmic forces that ensue will cause the earths mantle to crack and melt, allowing all of the world's sea water to flood the core, causing a catastrophic cool down that will result in a slowing of the rotation of the planet and as a result gravity will fail and we will all simply fall off the land and float into the sky to be suffocated in the ionosphere.

Well, at least that's what the Remain and SNP parties where saying, I'm sure I heard it right. So long friends. It's been nice getting to know you all.

[johnpwalsh]

So Andy, does that mean that all of us who have S1/2 and 3 esprit's of the Bond type are fairly safe as they can float, dive and maybe modified to fly. All those guys who went for lesser models will now be willing to pay over the odds for the said S1/2 and 3's. Last week on our visit to the private museum in Istanbul, the museum owner actually had a full size ex USSR submarine in his dock, and as he is a pure petrolhead he may even offer the use of said submarine to like minded friends so I consider myself safe.

[C8RKH]

But all the water will have been vaporized at the core, so the submarine is no use. We're all doomed John.The world is gonna end on Friday so best get out there and drive whatever Lotus you have mate.