Brexit

[Barrykearley]

Bought a big box of matches from the shop

[100th_Idiot]

Just now, C8RKH said:

@100th_Idiot well you're the first @JG220 has ever met then!  A remainer to leaver...  Do you live in London too?

Nope. Not in dat der London. Near Swindon is home these days.

[LotusFella]

I told my local district councillor that i will be withholding my council tax now,

His reply

 

Chris,

I suspect I will feel even more let down than you by Parliament as a whole if they fail to deliver the instructions of the British people.

My Partner, Son  and I worked without break in 2016 to secure a "Leave" result. We are members of the public too you know.

 

Not paying Council Tax which looks after vulnerable people, (Young and Old), takes away your rubbish, mends potholes and in most cases runs Bus Services and even re-builds your private drains etc etc would I believe be a bit silly.

Your mate

Bill

 

[PhillC]

3 minutes ago, LotusFella said:

I told my local district councillor that i will be withholding my council tax now,

His reply

 

Chris,

I suspect I will feel even more let down than you by Parliament as a whole if they fail to deliver the instructions of the British people.

My Partner, Son  and I worked without break in 2017 to secure a "Leave" result. We are members of the public too you know.

 

Not paying Council Tax which looks after vulnerable people, (Young and Old), takes away your rubbish, mends potholes and in most cases runs Bus Services and even re-builds your private drains etc etc would I believe be a bit silly.

Your mate

Bill

 

😁

[JG220]

43 minutes ago, LotusFella said:

Sorry but getting annoyed now.  The people of the UK are NOT a F**King laughing stock.  The politicians are!!!!!!!!!

Well, if you read European papers you will see that we are. 

We were a laughingstock for offering the referendum, a laughingstock for voting leave and now one for not knowing what we want. I’d agree that you can blame the politicians for the majority of those three. 

42 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

@100th_Idiot well you're the first @JG220 has ever met then!  A remainer to leaver...  Do you live in London too?

The first! 

 

[JG220]

1 hour ago, C8RKH said:

That was my point. The two things are mutuallly exclusive. I am sorry but that does not make the vote illegal.

No it doesn't. The vote was legal. The bluster is not the vote. Can't you see the difference?

I also think you are confusing other things. The vote was non binding. However the last general election was fought out with a Tory manifesto to execute the will of the people. They won the general election so that gave them the mandate.  This really is not as complex as you are making out. The referendum leaflet that outlined the vote was clear that we were voting to leave or remain. We were never promised a vote on any deal. And people wonder why we get frustrated....

I’m still struggling with how they are mutually exclusive. The referendum was legal until one side broke the law. Then in my view it wasn’t. 

We gloss over it because it probably wouldn’t have made a difference. Still doesn’t change the fact in my view. 

The problem with the augments about the 2017 manifesto is two fold

1- the 2017 conservative manifesto says ‘deliver a smooth and orderly departure from the European Union and forge a deep and special partnership with our friends and allies across Europe’. That doesn’t sound much like a no deal Brexit to me. 

2- we have a chance to change our government on a regular basis and the majority of decisions can be reversed in successive governments. Brexit isn’t one. Well not for a while anyway. 

[C8RKH]

8 minutes ago, JG220 said:

Well, if you read European papers you will see that we are. 

Hmm, and why do you think that the owners of a club would ever have a different view of someone wanting to leave the club,?

IF we are a laughing stock it is because Remain have given away, argued away or litigated away every advantage we had.

There is a level of naivity at play here I think.

[JG220]

3 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

Hmm, and why do you think that the owners of a club would ever have a different view of someone wanting to leave the club,?

IF we are a laughing stock it is because Remain have given away, argued away or litigated away every advantage we had.

There is a level of naivity at play here I think.

I think we’re saving you from yourselves 😁

[C8RKH]

9 minutes ago, JG220 said:

I’m still struggling with how they are mutually exclusive. The referendum was legal until one side broke the law. Then in my view it wasn’t

There is absolutely no glossing over it. You are choosing to not listen and the assuming we are not addressing.

Because you are trying to link two separate things as one.

Let me make it really simple.  The vote was a legally correct process, undertaken under constitutional law and overseen by the electoral commission that is independent of political parties and government. As such it was 100% legal and correct. End of discussion.

Seperately to the process of the vote, you had political parties and organisations who independently of anything to do with the running of the vote were CAMPAIGNING for their cause. The legality of some of that campaigning was not correct. That is not the same as an illegal vote.

Please be careful as your arguments are confusing facts for supposition or hearsay. You cannot say that everyone THINKS it will be bad is a statement of fact that it is bad. Supposition at best, leading the witness at worst.

[JG220]

1 hour ago, JG220 said:

 

If i was May, i'd try for a third time before the 29th,  i think that taking no deal off indefinitely as they have tonight, would mobilise brexiteers to vote for her deal. Whether that is enough or not, i'm not sure given that DUP aren't for turning, their issues are more fundamental with the backstop. 

Quoting myself, but this is exactly what has happened. 

3rd meaningful vote to occur next week. Let's see if the ERG lose their nerve. I still don't think she has the numbers though, as remain rebels are likely to move from voting for her deal this week to wondering if there isn't a 'better' outcome now on the cards. 

[JG220]

4 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

 

Let me make it really simple.  The vote was a legally correct process, undertaken under constitutional law and overseen by the electoral commission that is independent of political parties and government. As such it was 100% legal and correct. End of discussion.

 

That's not correct. It was the electoral commission who identified illegal activity in the process. The only reason the referendum itself cannot be challenged is that it was advisory. It was then, as you say, 2017 manifesto to enact it. Your argument through these pages is that you knew what you were voting for in the referendum and now it needs to be enacted.

That isn't what the manifesto offers, if that is the new line of argument you wish to take. 

[Barrykearley]

Yeah - funny the electoral commission didn’t look at the pamphlet full of political propaganda and shite that the government had mailed to every single household.

That was a remain sided pile of lies

[C8RKH]

38 minutes ago, JG220 said:

That's not correct. It was the electoral commission who identified illegal activity in the process

You are missing my point. It was the campaigning that was illegal - I am not disagreeing with you on that. However, .you said it was the vote. Two different but related things. You seem to be a master of obfuscation. I seem to be a pedant.

I did know what i was voting for. I was voting to leave. End of. I was not voting fo deal or no deal. WTO or Norway plus. I was voting to leave. I was told that if leave won we would leave. End of. So why haven't we? There is no new line of argument from me. We need to just leave. Is that plain and simple enough to explain my unchanged position?

[Steve V8]

@JG220 could I ask what you do for a living? And what were your reasons for wanting to remain?

[JG220]

5 hours ago, C8RKH said:

I was told that if leave won we would leave. End of. So why haven't we?

In that case you misunderstood. It was an advisory referendum, which both main parties decided they needed to respect. Respecting the decision to leave could be interpreted all the way from Brexit in name only all the way through to a hard, no deal exit. The protagonists in every option will say ‘well we’ve left’, thus fitting your defintion.

Add in the issue of a land mass border which got ignored in the original debate and its unsurprising that no compromise in that spectrum can be found. 

 

[C8RKH]

2 hours ago, JG220 said:

Respecting the decision to leave could be interpreted all the way from Brexit in name only all the way through to a hard, no deal exit. The protagonists in every option will say ‘well we’ve left’, thus fitting your defintion.

And I'm fine with that. I didn't vote for the detail, I voted to leave. So any of the outcomes above would leave me satisfied. Your argument seems to be but you can't just leave as we need to know the detail. You might want to know it or feel you need to vote on it. I don't. I eas happy with the options - we either remain or leave. We had till March 29th to thrash out a deal. Great if we do. If we don't then we just leave. Simples. I am very happy with that. It seems that it those who wish to Remain, are the unhappy ones who are delaying, blocking, obfuscating or usurping the process. I'm clear. Just leave. We can then negotiate a deal with the EU for trade just the same as every other country or trading block. 

Lots of your responses are using your view or interpretation as statements of fact - "my view is the vote was illegal" - they are not, they are personal opinion. When this is pointed out you just ignore it or brush over it with another personal opinion rolled out as fact.

As another example, I said the vote was legal and overseen by the Electoral Commission. Your response was, ah, exactly it was the Electoral Commission that spotted the illegal campaigning so that proves the vote was illegal. Well, (1) you proved my point re the ECs role and the fact they did their job (2) campaigning being illegal does not mean the vote was.

You say we brush over the detail of miss information re what life would be like after Brexit (battle bus propaganda etc) and then go to state Remain propoganda of what the future will be as fact. So, you're either a hypocrite in this context or you have a Delorean with a flux capacitor and you've been back to the future hence your categoric and unimpeachable knowledge that your version of the future is correct.

[Andyww]

The referendum had £9 million of undeclared expenses from the remain side, namely the leaflets sent to all households. 

Any misdemeanours from the leave camp are insignificant by comparison.

Furthermore the leaflets spelt out in full that leave would mean what is now known as a "hard Brexit".

[JG220]

I didn’t say which side acted unlawfully. It is however true that only the Leave campaign (or elements of Leave - there were multiple organisations) have so far been found to have acted unlawfully. i think you’re probably right, there is moral question over the leaflets and so on from Remain. I actually think they not only objectionable but also unhelpful. Some of the rhetoric wasn’t helpful either, on both sides. 

 

[JG220]

1 hour ago, C8RKH said:

And I'm fine with that. I didn't vote for the detail, I voted to leave. So any of the outcomes above would leave me satisfied. Your argument seems to be but you can't just leave as we need to know the detail. You might want to know it or feel you need to vote on it. I don't. I eas happy with the options - we either remain or leave. We had till March 29th to thrash out a deal. Great if we do. If we don't then we just leave. Simples. I am very happy with that. It seems that it those who wish to Remain, are the unhappy ones who are delaying, blocking, obfuscating or usurping the process. I'm clear. Just leave. We can then negotiate a deal with the EU for trade just the same as every other country or trading block. 

Lots of your responses are using your view or interpretation as statements of fact - "my view is the vote was illegal" - they are not, they are personal opinion. When this is pointed out you just ignore it or brush over it with another personal opinion rolled out as fact.

As another example, I said the vote was legal and overseen by the Electoral Commission. Your response was, ah, exactly it was the Electoral Commission that spotted the illegal campaigning so that proves the vote was illegal. Well, (1) you proved my point re the ECs role and the fact they did their job (2) campaigning being illegal does not mean the vote was.

You say we brush over the detail of miss information re what life would be like after Brexit (battle bus propaganda etc) and then go to state Remain propoganda of what the future will be as fact. So, you're either a hypocrite in this context or you have a Delorean with a flux capacitor and you've been back to the future hence your categoric and unimpeachable knowledge that your version of the future is correct.

You’re right, I perhaps haven’t responded to all your points. I try and hit the high nails. 

With most of my responses i try to back up with evidence (apart from where I have already done so). No doubt there is intepretation, in the same way that you do, but perhaps i was goading a little with my extrapolation to an illegal referendum. Remember though, that the result would have been challenged if it had not been advisory. At which point we’d have probably all referred to it as the unlawful referendum.

Back to your first point though about the nature of Brexit. I don’t understand your view. At the softer end of Brexit (CU, ECJ etc) you might as well remain, as its just a less good position. Still can’t sign up external trade deals, probably have to accept free movement and so on, don’t have a say in Europe, lose our benefits. Arguments which liter this thread. Leaving for the sake of leaving, and becoming a sudo-European state makes no sense to me. 

On your last point, which i think i understand. There are a set (whether you agree with them or not) of predictions of what happens in a range of Brexit scenarios. You’ll recall on the first attempt at May’s deal last year, Hammond even briefed Parliament that the UK would be slightly less well off than if we remained in Europe, but would be much better than the consequences of a no deal. Are you suggesting that we shouldn’t take notice of those? And to anyone that says that you only need to look at the current economic position to see that the predictions were wrong, well last time i looked we were still in Europe. 

[C8RKH]

The rhetoric from both sides is still unhelpful.

We have the exact same problen in Scotland. The losing side refusing to accept the result of a democratic vote and constant pushing for another one. When does this type of selfish politics end and how does it serve the long term good of the nation and her people as it just prolongs uncertainty.

In the Scottish referendum we also had both sides lying, pedalling untruths and prophets, really Delorean owners with flux capacitors, confirming we were all actually doomed.

It is all rather disagreeable and in both cases it is the losing side who have and are attempting to unwind a democratic result. How can that be right and just?

With regards to your last post which occurred whilst I was typing above, my preference was and is for what people call a hard Brexit. When I voted that was what I wanted. To leave. No strings attached. My view has not changed but the options being pursued have and no matter how passionate I am I cannot change the cards that our politicians are dealing.

As for the future predictions, they are largely coming from pro EU camps. However, go back 2 years and we were all done for they said including the Chancellor and BoE.

Fast forwsrd to now and London is seeing massive inward invedtment and has been declared the number one city for tech investments etc only ladt month. The Governor of the BoE is more upbeat. Our economy has outperformed the Eurozone in those two years. Wages are up and debt is being reduced. Hardly the apocoplyptic scenario that has been peddled based on the forecasts for the past 2 years.  We do ourselves a huge disservice by talking ourselves down and labelling ourselves a laughing stock. Over the past 50 years the UK has proved time and time again that through regulation, policies and legislation we are able to move our position to maximise our business advantage and take advantage ftom changing business trends. We were at the forefront of offshore outsourcing, yet our Service Sector has grown impressively. We have moved our manufacturing base on. Granted it is not as big as it was but we have world class companies thriving.  Our workforce is intelligent, generally well educated, flexible and mobile. So we adapt. Contrast that with Germany, France, Spain and Italy. The power houses of Europe. We made the hard choices one or two decades ago. We are ready for the new world. They and their leaders are only now waking up to the consequences of their protectionism and intransigence.

I guess I'm just an optimist who passionately believes in the creativity and work ethic of the people of these Islands.

 

[Andyww]

The SNP want to be EU members but not UK members, which says much about their attitude towards the rest of the UK!

[oilmagnet477]

Any forecast of economic success (or failure) by degrees based on what 'might' happen in any given scenario is not worth the paper (or screen) it is written on. Just look back at ALL Government Budget statements forever to understand what a work of total fiction they are................

NO ONE knows what WILL happen if we were to leave with no deal. I can imagine that in the short term there are likely to be significant implications for industry, simply given the lack of preparation given to leaving without a deal. It is also likely that many of the worst case scenarios will be able to be avoided. It is the on-going uncertainty that is the massive problem here.

I voted to remain, for reasons that I have already laid out. However, given that I accepted the democratic result (however corrupt the campaign, it didn't effect or invalidate my vote IMO), I have also said before that we should have left the day after the referendum result and THEN negotiated a deal.

This would have left the EU in NO doubt as to our resolve and they would have needed to agree a deal that minimised that outcome on themselves but we would have been masters of our own destiny. What has unfolded over the last 2 years has cost a small fortune and left us no further forward, in fact, I would say that as a Nation we are significantly worse off - our Politicians are an utter disgrace - the only one of them I feel in any way compassionate towards is actually Theresa May - however crap the deal she has delivered is perceived to be, the single point that NO ONE in Parliament seems to accept is that the EU were never going to allow us anything better. She has at least stood up and done the deed where no one else had the balls to. The failure of MPs to support her has been woeful and I now fear that Brexit is all but dead, unless of course the ERG etc accept that we are now looking at the 'deal or no brexit' and vote for the deal next week. Some hope....

I agree with James that anything softer is pointless as he describes and we might as well stay in and be able to influence from within, but I wouldn't fancy the chances of the EU treating us with any sort of respect going forward - their simple rhetoric will be "Beware anyone else who tries to leave...."

My biggest issue now is where the hell does my vote go at the next GE? I would never vote for the joke left and the Tories have blown it again for a generation....

[Neal H]

Rewatch the Cameron clip of the speech he made about the referendum - you can find it in this thread. (bear in mind he was PM at the time, and had won the election largely on the back of offering the referendum having been leaking support to UKIP). He is quite unequivocal about it's nature - that this is a once in a generation opportunity to put the Europe issue to bed, that this is a decision for the people, not for the government, not for the politicians, but the people. There was no ambiguity about what it meant and the question was a simple one - do you want to leave, or do you want to remain.

The decision by the majority of politicians to then not respect the outcome because it wasn't the result 75% of them wanted is a major blow to the democratic system and the consequences will be far reaching. With democracy you don't always get the result you want, but you have to RESPECT the result otherwise you undermine the entire process. I always thought the UK was bastion of democracy, I was wrong.

[JG220]

28 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

 

Fast forwsrd to now and London is seeing massive inward invedtment and has been declared the number one city for tech investments etc only ladt month. The Governor of the BoE is more upbeat. Our economy has outperformed the Eurozone in those two years. Wages are up and debt is being reduced. Hardly the apocoplyptic scenario that has been peddled based on the forecasts for the past 2 years.  We do ourselves a huge disservice by talking ourselves down and labelling ourselves a laughing stock. Over the past 50 years the UK has proved time and time again that through regulation, policies and legislation we are able to move our position to maximise our business advantage and take advantage ftom changing business trends. We were at the forefront of offshore outsourcing, yet our Service Sector has grown impressively. We have moved our manufacturing base on. Granted it is not as big as it was but we have world class companies thriving.  Our workforce is intelligent, generally well educated, flexible and mobile. So we adapt. Contrast that with Germany, France, Spain and Italy. The power houses of Europe. We made the hard choices one or two decades ago. We are ready for the new world. They and their leaders are only now waking up to the consequences of their protectionism and intransigence.

I guess I'm just an optimist who passionately believes in the creativity and work ethic of the people of these Islands.

 

This is just as interpretative as your accusations of my postings. 

$1T of assets have been moved out of London since the Brexit process started (that’s about %10)

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/01/07/investing/brexit-banks-moving-assets/index.html

On the other hand, Fintech investment is at all time high and that’s brilliant for us.

https://qz.com/1549956/investors-are-shrugging-off-brexit-and-pouring-money-into-uk-fintech-startups/

So it’s probably a bit more mixed that your statement. 

None if this is black and white. I’m very happy to celebrate the successes, but just imagine how much further on we would be if we had not spent £2b on Brexit. 

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/summary-costing-brexit

I wouldn’t underestimate the other European nations either, and certainly wouldn’t couch them in those terms. Germany and France especially. 

[JG220]

45 minutes ago, oilmagnet477 said:

 

I agree with James that anything softer is pointless as he describes and we might as well stay in and be able to influence from within, but I wouldn't fancy the chances of the EU treating us with any sort of respect going forward - their simple rhetoric will be "Beware anyone else who tries to leave...."

My biggest issue now is where the hell does my vote go at the next GE? I would never vote for the joke left and the Tories have blown it again for a generation....

I actually think that Europe would welcome Britain ‘back’ (given that it hasn’t left) with open arms. It would be a very strong message to the general rising of far right anti-European (just to be clear I’m not calling brexiteers far right) sentiment in Europe. 

I agree though that it causes all sorts of issues. It certainly needs another vote, the result of which would be far from clear. 

I’m personally hoping for a long extension. 2-4 years? Something like that, to have time to start again (and spend another £2B. /Rolls eyes) and end up with a BRINO or no Brexit at all (so long as that is what was voted for in a new vote). Or they vote for May’s deal and lets just be done with it.  We can reintegrate later. 

Edited March 14, 2019 by JG220