Brexit

[Greg | ValetPro]

The idea behind the EU is sound.  We should be united.     In the end the world need to find itself in a place where we work together. I think thats the natural destination. All the world problems are not going to be solved by one government.  They can only be solved by a global community working together.  

This feels like an impossible task to get the Global Community all thinking the same.   The Nationalist ideal does not work because its all about putting your country first and above any other country.  This means there is alway a country feeling betrayed or let down by the system. I think this is ultimately by brexit occurred.  UK had got itself in a mess which gave politician the ability to blame the EU ( some case this seem fair and other not fair).  But it did open the argument up and the route to leave the Union. If the NHS, Police, Education, Employment (reasonable living wages) were all working well, which I believe we had control of then the vote to leave would not have happened.

 

Vaccines rollout - does seem to demonstrate that local control makes the process much quicker.  This clearly benefited the UK. 

 

I'm sure Brexit will work. But I also hope the EU find a way to provide a better united group in the future. I also hope the UK become part of that.

 

 

[Doug Ashley]

I think this thread is a great demonstration of just how far the available information sources out there have diverged.  The truth is somewhere in the middle, which is why I try to provide an independent source for as many of my claims as possible.

'Vaccines' has been used an an answer to many questions about the UK's handing of the pandemic, and often linked to Brexit.

1. It is untrue that EU laws would have prevented us taking the approach we did.  In fact, we started the process during the transition period while still under EU law!

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-vaccine-brexit/

2. Ok, some may say we might have gone along with the EU procurement scheme for unity/solidarity, and this would have slowed us down.  True, this would have meant we were slower out of the blocks.  However, the vaccine rollout has only just now started to benefit us in terms of reduced restrictions etc., because you need most of the population to be vaccinated for the benefits to be felt.  In this regard, we have been caught up and in some cases overtaken by Europe, while they continue a quicker trajectory toward completing the project.  We have stalled.  The chart below shows we began well, but now (when vaccine benefits are starting to be felt) we are underperforming.  Funnily enough, this isn't being shouted by the press, as there is money to be made by EU bashing.

3. The faster rollout may have saved more vulnerable lives by getting to them earlier, true.  However, our slowness to lock down repeatedly has cost far more lives than a slightly faster rollout has saved, due to the high infection rates the government has been willing to tolerate (hence us having one of the highest death tolls in the world).

Sorry if this is slightly off-topic, but as a claimed Brexit benefits go, this is a weak one.

[Greg | ValetPro]

6 minutes ago, Doug Ashley said:

I think this thread is a great demonstration of just how far the available information sources out there have diverged.  The truth is somewhere in the middle, which is why I try to provide an independent source for as many of my claims as possible.

'Vaccines' has been used an an answer to many questions about the UK's handing of the pandemic, and often linked to Brexit.

1. It is untrue that EU laws would have prevented us taking the approach we did.  In fact, we started the process during the transition period while still under EU law!

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-vaccine-brexit/

2. Ok, some may say we might have gone along with the EU procurement scheme for unity/solidarity, and this would have slowed us down.  True, this would have meant we were slower out of the blocks.  However, the vaccine rollout has only just now started to benefit us in terms of reduced restrictions etc., because you need most of the population to be vaccinated for the benefits to be felt.  In this regard, we have been caught up and in some cases overtaken by Europe, while they continue a quicker trajectory toward completing the project.  We have stalled.  The chart below shows we began well, but now (when vaccine benefits are starting to be felt) we are underperforming.  Funnily enough, this isn't being shouted by the press, as there is money to be made by EU bashing.

3. The faster rollout may have saved more vulnerable lives by getting to them earlier, true.  However, our slowness to lock down repeatedly has cost far more lives than a slightly faster rollout has saved, due to the high infection rates the government has been willing to tolerate (hence us having one of the highest death tolls in the world).

Sorry if this is slightly off-topic, but as a claimed Brexit benefits goes, this is a weak one.

Does this graph only look at who's been vaccinated and not thous who have been double jabbed?  If this is the case I would be curious to know how far UK is on double vaccination?

Vaccination - As I understand it, the vac is much more effective after two jabs. So therefore double jabs is what we need to open up.  There is also the understanding go age group.  My son at 23 has had his first jab.  I not sure they will offer it to my youngest who is 16.  So there has to be a large percentage of people who would not get vaccinated.    The younger people who are less venerable are getting there first jabs nowise surely the UK is closer to covering all thous it would vaccinate by now?

[Doug Ashley]

2 minutes ago, Greg | ValetPro said:

Does this graph only look at who's been vaccinated and not thous who have been double jabbed?  If this is the case I would be curious to know how far UK is on double vaccination?

This chart is for double jabbed, i.e. fully vaccinated.

Age is an interesting point, we are not yet planning to vaccinate under 18s as far as I'm aware, which is perhaps why the Government keep referring to the 'adult population' when talking about vaccine success.  I believe Spain are planning to vaccinate over 12s and have overtaken us in terms of proportion of population double jabbed.

We have been successful and it's a great achievement for the initial procurement and the NHS rollout, but I don't think it's justified to try and paint us as a special case or claim a Brexit benefit.

[Greg | ValetPro]

Judging by the graph it does seem that we are only 3 months ahead (in marginal population coverage) and now we seem to have falling back in line with everyone else. Not that, thats a surprise really as you get closer to coverage.  Be interesting to understand why it slowed down? Is this because we have covered most of all the vaccination age range or is the pick up slower on younger people? Or is it the government sending Vaccines else where?  Or just a political cock up.

 

[Doug Ashley]

I think part of it is down to us planning to use more of the AZ (Oxford) vaccine, which turned out to have unacceptable health risks for under 40s.  We have fallen back on Pfizer and Moderna for this age range, and have less available due to these supply assumptions about AZ.

In itself this is a demonstration of why speeding up the approval process might not have been the best approach. However, this is probably over-simplifying and I’m sure there are many other factors at play.

[Bibs]

Explains why we gave 100m of them away. I wonder if anyone will notice it's the rubbish one!

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-to-donate-100-million-coronavirus-vaccine-doses

[pete]

3 hours ago, Doug Ashley said:

I think this thread is a great demonstration of just how far the available information sources out there have diverged.  The truth is somewhere in the middle, which is why I try to provide an independent source for as many of my claims as possible.

'Vaccines' has been used an an answer to many questions about the UK's handing of the pandemic, and often linked to Brexit.

1. It is untrue that EU laws would have prevented us taking the approach we did.  In fact, we started the process during the transition period while still under EU law!

https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-vaccine-brexit/

2. Ok, some may say we might have gone along with the EU procurement scheme for unity/solidarity, and this would have slowed us down.  True, this would have meant we were slower out of the blocks.  However, the vaccine rollout has only just now started to benefit us in terms of reduced restrictions etc., because you need most of the population to be vaccinated for the benefits to be felt.  In this regard, we have been caught up and in some cases overtaken by Europe, while they continue a quicker trajectory toward completing the project.  We have stalled.  The chart below shows we began well, but now (when vaccine benefits are starting to be felt) we are underperforming.  Funnily enough, this isn't being shouted by the press, as there is money to be made by EU bashing.

3. The faster rollout may have saved more vulnerable lives by getting to them earlier, true.  However, our slowness to lock down repeatedly has cost far more lives than a slightly faster rollout has saved, due to the high infection rates the government has been willing to tolerate (hence us having one of the highest death tolls in the world).

Sorry if this is slightly off-topic, but as a claimed Brexit benefits go, this is a weak one.

This is all hypothetical on both sides so why not accept Brexit has happened and put more energy into making it work instead of stirring up all the arguments again.

[Doug Ashley]

1. I try to make my posts based on what's actually happened, & particularly the vaccines post I think what's actually happened shows that EU membership had little relevance to the vaccine rollout.  I just get tired of the continued 'us vs. them' approach to the EU and they get a lot of criticism which I'm just trying to diffuse.

2. Nothing I say will make any difference to the success of Brexit.  In terms of my actions, I'm continuing to work in the same industry now working on a way forwards after we no longer need to follow EU regulations, so I'm literally being paid to make Brexit work better.

3. I want our country to be as successful as possible, and I have serious concerns about the path we're taking.  Like Brexiters did, I'm willing to live here for decades under a system which I am unhappy with, in order to vote for change when the opportunity arises.  The opportunity will arrive someday (unless I'm proved wrong and Brexit is a success), because the young overwhelmingly voted remain.

4. The vote was between:

- staying signed up to c.700 pages of specific EU treaties, or

- 'something else'

The 'something else' could have taken many forms, I believe the form which we've ended up with was too 'hard Brexit' and there is room for a closer & more aligned relationship with Europe in everyone's interest.

 

[C8RKH]

34 minutes ago, Doug Ashley said:

The 'something else' could have taken many forms, I believe the form which we've ended up with was too 'hard Brexit' and there is room for a closer & more aligned relationship with Europe in everyone's interest.

I do believe there is room for a closer & more aligned relationship too, however for that to happen the rhetoric on both sides (not just against the EU) will need to be wound down and some sections of the EU need to stop trying to punish us for leaving (which there is plenty of evidence to suggest that this the motive) and accept we have voted out and just move on.

A strong UK AND a strong EU is what will benefit all our respective citizens the most. Continuing to take huge chunks out of each other will only hurt ourselves and allow others to profit at our expense.

Re jabs - the UK is slightly behind Spain (56.4% v 57.1%) on double jabs, slightly ahead on single jabs (69% v 68%) - https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations - data based on 1 August 2021

[Doug Ashley]

I agree, it’s going to take a while for things to settle down. I don’t think the government yet understands what it signed up to, despite us being involved in setting the rules for third countries for many years. However, an improvement in relations is needed so the EU will need to be more flexible at some point, I hope both sides move closer together rather than further apart. There’s just not much will/patience at the moment, particularly on top of a pandemic.

[Neal H]

I think the European Commission’s approach to the whole trade negotiation post Brexit has been about scaring existing EU states into not considering their own exit referendums, rather than trying to achieve a fair and equitable agreement with the U.K. and they have used the Northern Ireland ‘problem’ as a political ploy as they know how sensitive it is for the U.K.

I think this sums up the European Commission - they can’t sell the benefits of staying so resort to trying to scare other member states into not leaving.

If the EU had been just about free trade and freedom of movement, I would never have voted leave, but it isn’t, it’s about political union and becoming a federal state, a project that I genuinely believe is doomed due to the many varied languages and cultural differences in Europe.

If the EU was genuinely reformed, I would vote to rejoin.

[Doug Ashley]

I think both sides were just left with limited options after the UK drew several red lines, making negotiations very complex. We had a wide range of options as per the slide below, but painted ourselves into a corner.

I’m not sure how the NI issue can be downplayed, just listen to John Major's views. 

As for the federal state, we had a veto, opt-outs and a vote. We would never have been forced to accept the Euro, an EU army, etc. etc. because of these. A lot of these myths are dispelled here: https://fullfact.org/europe/viral-list-about-lisbon-treaty-wrong/

[Chillidoggy]

Dunno about anyone else, but I personally stopped listening to John Major over 30 years ago.

[pete]

3 hours ago, Doug Ashley said:

I think both sides were just left with limited options after the UK drew several red lines, making negotiations very complex. We had a wide range of options as per the slide below, but painted ourselves into a corner.

I’m not sure how the NI issue can be downplayed, just listen to John Major's views. 

As for the federal state, we had a veto, opt-outs and a vote. We would never have been forced to accept the Euro, an EU army, etc. etc. because of these. A lot of these myths are dispelled here: https://fullfact.org/europe/viral-list-about-lisbon-treaty-wrong/

so you are basing your argument on asite that is funded by facebook and google and whose editor used to work for the daily mirror running an anti conservative website. left wing journalists seem to be the majority of employees and hardly be unbiased in their opinions

 

[Doug Ashley]

Provide verified facts or counter-arguments to further the debate? ❌
 

Attempt to discredit sources? 👍

 

I think I’m done here, back to the car stuff 😂

[Barrykearley]

On the plus side - we have still left 👍

[exeterjeep]

2 hours ago, Chillidoggy said:

Dunno about anyone else, but I personally stopped listening to John Major over 30 years ago.

Before or after Edwina 'EGGs' Currie

[Chillidoggy]

48 minutes ago, Doug Ashley said:

Provide verified facts or counter-arguments to further the debate? ❌
 

Attempt to discredit sources? 👍

 

I think I’m done here, back to the car stuff 😂

I think you’ve been rumbled by Pete.

[Doug Ashley]

How about a verified legal professional, expert in EU law?

(now I’m done…)

[Barrykearley]

29 minutes ago, Doug Ashley said:

How about a verified legal professional, expert in EU law?

The judiciary in the country are a complete and utter joke.

[pete]

1 hour ago, Doug Ashley said:

now I’m done

Again

[Barrykearley]

I demand a recount

[Chillidoggy]

13 hours ago, Doug Ashley said:

How about a verified legal professional, expert in EU law?

(now I’m done…)

 

Don't get stuck in a lift with this guy.

[Doug Ashley]

Unfortunately, Steve and I are stuck with you in the lift after 52% of you voted we must all get in. We did point out the 'closed for maintenance' signs, but apparently exit meant exit.