Brexit

[MPx]

12 hours ago, franjipane said:

 

 

 

 

Thanks for posting this Steve.  That's the most coherent I've heard anyone for remain put their argument.  I'm afraid he alienated me at the beginning by saying 1. His job, income stream and obvious passion in life - is all about the EU.  2 He's a research scientist so everything he says is based on masses of evidence and therefore cant be argued against.  3 He sees this argument as basic 1st year student stuff, implying that anyone who doesn't get it is thick.

That aside, (assuming he didn't make it all up!) he did dispel some myths for me and I agree with him (and you) that its such a shame that we aren't hearing the debate about how things actually are rather than the nonsense arguments that carry the most hype.  Now of course I'm just a numpty so probably wouldn't be able to weigh the arguments if they were put to me sensibly.  But I've been reading some stuff by Mervyn King recently.  He's got even more academic background than Dougan plus the practical experience of various senior positions at the Bank of England including as Governor for 10 years.   Now he's looked at the evidence that he's had access to and has decided on Brexit.  So maybe its not such a no brainer - whatever next (!) leading academics not agreeing on stuff, who'd have thought it.   The bit I found hardest to take was that it'll be 10 years before we get it sorted even if we do it at record pace. My guess is that at least some things will be made to happen much sooner.  London is one of the big 3 world financial centres.  They wont go offline for 10 years not knowing what to do. The City will continue trading and ways will be found.  Suggesting anything else is just silly.  The obvious option to put forward is that nothing changes on 24th June whatever happens in the vote.  The current agreements can be continued by mutual consent until such time as something better gets put in place.

[Barrykearley]

Let's be absolutely clear.

most of the remain campaign is utter bull and fear. The leave campaign is stating the obvious that most people in the pub are worried about. The remain campaign paint this as fear and zenophobia.

be under no illusion turkey will be a full blown member very soon indeed. Probably within 3 years. Dave Cameron needs to hang his head in shame saying it's going to take them ages to get into the club. The eu has been rapidly expanding over its lifetime. And completely contrary to what was signed and agreed with Russia after ww2 regarding the boarders of Europe. 

Any of these high wealth toff and corrupt pigs with their noses in the euro trough - thanks but no thanks - turn the light off on the way out.

if Blair recommends remain - that and that alone should be enough for the whole country to vote leave......twice

 

I don't car how long it takes to sort out if brexit occurs. They've had a good 40odd year trying to sort out Europe - and it's an utter shambles........outs best

[C8RKH]

Mervyn King, a highly respected academic and good, solid, ex Governor of the Bank of England. Great credentials. Well, from what I can see he seems to have taken his time, done as you would expect some comprehensive research. The outcome? He now believes Brexit is good!

Funny it's not been widely talked about, instead we get the non story of a not very active MP, Farsey, supposedly defecting to Remain.

Jeez. Anyone who does not see how the news is being manipulated needs to go to Specsavers.

[Andyww]

You know the world has gone mad when the Guardian starts saying we should remain because George Soros says we should!

Since when has the left-wing Graun supported the biggest capitalist gold-digger ever?

[Barrykearley]

Well the funny thing with currency values is where you loose you also gain.

so if we drop to 1.15usd - it makes our goods and services cheaper to the USA - is that a bad thing.

and yes i do indeed understand that Disney tickets will cost us more, we still need a visa and a passport to go. Unlike Disneyland Paris - where you just need a frekin huge wheel barrow of money to buy a coffee

[Chillidoggy]

Soros has now stuck his head above the parapet.

Is it just me, or does anyone else think that there's a timetable leading up to the referendum whereby a long list of people drip-feed the public against leaving one by one? It just seems so choreographed to me, like they're waiting their turn to pipe up.

[Andyww]

In the case of the IMF there was a definite timetable. It was mentioned in the press some time ago the exact date when Lagarde would make a remain statement yesterday.

I have still not seen anything from the Brexit camp about the massive amount of tax which is lost on UK sales of multi-nationals through being based in Luxembourg. I have sent a couple of messages to the Leave people to try to get them to focus more on this but nothing. I find this so annoying when our small company (rightly) has to pay the full amount of CT at the UK rate and has no EU-sponsored opportunity to dodge it in this way. Alex Brummer in the Mail has written many times in the past about this but has gone completely quiet. This amount is far higher than the sum we actually pay to the EU (which the remainers keep disputing).

[franjipane]

4 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Let's be absolutely clear.

You should have gone into politics mate! isn't that the way all MPs answer questions these days?

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/06/listen-priti-patels-robotic-turn-today/

Mervyn King is rightly critical of the EU, but i don't think he's explicitly said he will vote leave has he?  (feel free to post his statement if he has)

Meanwhile the current Bank of England Governor Mark Carney warns about the effects of leaving the EU - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/16/mark-carney-accuses-vote-leave-of-fundamental-misunderstanding-o/

4 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

be under no illusion turkey will be a full blown member very soon indeed.

For sure I agree we need to handle immigration and new member states carefully, but you know that if we leave the EU and want to still trade on the single market we will have to accept EU immigration quotas anyway, is that what the leave campaign want?  Not to mention, immigrant workers in the UK put more into the economy than it costs the country.  They pay more taxes than they take benefits.

Also, for Turkey to join the EU there would need to be massive improvements in human rights there, freedom of press, relationship normalisation (Cyprus...) So it's highly unlikely they'll be joining until there's been a lot of reform, and they would need approval from every member state.  One more thing, support for joining (from people in Turkey) has declined since 2010 anyway. https://fullfact.org/europe/turkey-likely-join-eu/

3 hours ago, C8RKH said:

Jeez. Anyone who does not see how the news is being manipulated needs to go to Specsavers.

Yep, the nonsense and bias some papers write about eh, both sides at it!

 

[franjipane]

10 hours ago, MPx said:

Thanks for posting this Steve.  That's the most coherent I've heard anyone for remain put their argument.  I'm afraid he alienated me at the beginning by saying 1. His job, income stream and obvious passion in life - is all about the EU.  2 He's a research scientist so everything he says is based on masses of evidence and therefore cant be argued against.  3 He sees this argument as basic 1st year student stuff, implying that anyone who doesn't get it is thick.

That aside, (assuming he didn't make it all up!) he did dispel some myths for me and I agree with him (and you) that its such a shame that we aren't hearing the debate about how things actually are rather than the nonsense arguments that carry the most hype.  Now of course I'm just a numpty so probably wouldn't be able to weigh the arguments if they were put to me sensibly.  But I've been reading some stuff by Mervyn King recently.  He's got even more academic background than Dougan plus the practical experience of various senior positions at the Bank of England including as Governor for 10 years.   Now he's looked at the evidence that he's had access to and has decided on Brexit.  So maybe its not such a no brainer - whatever next (!) leading academics not agreeing on stuff, who'd have thought it.   The bit I found hardest to take was that it'll be 10 years before we get it sorted even if we do it at record pace. My guess is that at least some things will be made to happen much sooner.  London is one of the big 3 world financial centres.  They wont go offline for 10 years not knowing what to do. The City will continue trading and ways will be found.  Suggesting anything else is just silly.  The obvious option to put forward is that nothing changes on 24th June whatever happens in the vote.  The current agreements can be continued by mutual consent until such time as something better gets put in place.

He also said he'd have plenty of work if we were to leave the EU, so it's not really in his interests to stay.  I reckon you're right to question how long it will take to sort out trade deals if we leave, it'll take 2 years to handle the divorce so things might not go belly up straight away!  But the existing evidence of how long it takes to agree trade deals does suggest a minimum of ten years possibly a lot longer.  Of course that doesn't mean all deals will take that long, it'll be a gradual process.

[Kimbers]

So I've heard it all now. Leaving will cause mass divorces, WW3, Allow more terrorists in, cause the collapse of life as we know it, destroy our standing with the world and now................ladies and Gentleman.........I give you:

Make London declare independance!

Could you make it up if you tried? No!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526298

 

[franjipane]

Madness, Can't wait for it to be over at this stage.  So we can get on with the normal nonsense the media report!

[Kimbers]

There are lies, damned lies, the stay campaign and then the BBC. Awesome!

[MPx]

1 hour ago, franjipane said:

He also said he'd have plenty of work if we were to leave the EU, so it's not really in his interests to stay.  I reckon you're right to question how long it will take to sort out trade deals if we leave, it'll take 2 years to handle the divorce so things might not go belly up straight away!  But the existing evidence of how long it takes to agree trade deals does suggest a minimum of ten years possibly a lot longer.  Of course that doesn't mean all deals will take that long, it'll be a gradual process.

Belly up can happen at any time.  The markets tend to dictate.  They still embrace herd mentality.  If a few get spooked about the unknown then there could well be a run that isn't supported by any actual issues encountered.  I still cant buy that there will be greater than normal trade problems for business on 24th June 2018.  If a business wants to trade with Mongolia next week, for the most part they set up a deal and do it, they don't wait for ten years to get a free trade deal or other bilateral agreement.  Some may encounter tariffs and some may encounter technical restrictions.  I bet none are as restrictive, obtuse, unintelligible, counter intuitive, and verbose as the EU restrictions/directives.   Not least because most places don't think they need to be quite so prescriptive about every detail of every product or service (other than the US for car specs, obviously!).  Clearly those who want to sell to the EU will still have to comply...but at least the rest will be largely free of it.

[march]

1 hour ago, Kimbers said:

So I've heard it all now. Leaving will cause mass divorces, WW3, Allow more terrorists in, cause the collapse of life as we know it, destroy our standing with the world and now................ladies and Gentleman.........I give you:

Make London declare independance!

Could you make it up if you tried? No!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36526298

My Farm has just had a referemdum - WE (that is I as I have decided I am the only eligible voter) have decided to declare our independence from the UK. As a newly created poverty ridden state (the bloody bureaucrats have pinched all the money - that is me by the way) we plan to join the EU for all the money we can get in grants - We have a new science and academic community that needs lots of grants - that would be me in my garden shed and a farming industry that is definitely need some grants - that would also be me but in my tractor this time. We will also create a federation of farming states with @Barrykearley

Once WE have had all the grants - oh and I will also be our MEP - we will have another referendum and we will vote leave, declare ourselves as a failed state, sell the state to Germany and move back to the UK.

Seems like a plan!

 

I don't see this as any more farcical than some of the claims being made by some of our politicians at the moment

[Paul Coleman]

Just make sure if you do vote to leave that you take a black pen with you and don't use the pencil they provide!!

[Andyww]

BBC just had David Beckham on, to tell us to vote remain. Guess it was his planned rollout day today.

[C8RKH]

WTF - so someone who spends 80%+ of his time outside of the UK is telling us what to do. Jeez, surprised Sturgeon and the SNP haven't reeled out that old tax dodger and well know Scottish resident Sir Shhhhhhhhaun Shhicanery to tell us all how well off we will be to remain, while he leaves to his tax haven and warm beeches....

Anyone see the news that the EU parliament is applying for a seat on the United Nations (clue in the name) Security Council - mark my words, if we stay, in 20 years the UK will be like Florida, or Texas in the US - just another state in a larger Federal Entity. The EU is so sinister in how it is run and it operates that I am starting to wonder if it could have been the inspiration for Ian Flemings "Spectre" - but then I think Spectre may have come first, so maybe that is what the EU is modelling itself on!

BREXIT for the win!

[march]

Jacob Rees Mogg making a good speech:

 

 

[ChrisJ]

I assume it is this one

 

 

[Paul Coleman]

I have a sneaking suspicion the result will be to remain and the thing which will swing it will be the postal vote. The postal vote has been rigged in the past quite successfully and no doubt it will be again this time. The 1.5m people of Tower Hamlets will cast 3m votes to remain (just like they did for the mayoral elections).

If we come out of the EU what will all our politicians do when this gravy train ends? The likes of Kinnock have had a very nice little number riding the EU gravy train after he failed in this country.

I noticed the story of the Calais migrants link chanting f*** the UK and trying to storm lorries to get to the UK didn't make the BBC news. No doubt after the vote the ban on reporting what's going on with the EU migrant crisis will be lifted by the Government? Or am I just being overly cynical?

[Barrykearley]

Cynic.

 

just reminds me of that episode of black adder 

 

[Paul Coleman]

Hahaha Hugh Laurie only lives a few miles from me - useless fact of the day!

[Barrykearley]

Must have taken ages to find the remain audience members in today's pish debate.

what an utter load of tosh. Just tell us the bloody truth.

[Barrykearley]

http://www.westernspring.co.uk/the-coudenhove-kalergi-plan-the-genocide-of-the-peoples-of-europe/

[MPx]

Are you guys members of the FairfuelUK campaign?  If so you too probably just got the result email from their EU survey as well.  Interesting.  Obviously not at all a cross sectional representation but a very strong message nevertheless.

However, since January 1st we have had 40,000 emails from supporters asking what is best for drivers in this EU Referendum. As a consequence, we decided to ask your views.   In the largest ever poll of consumer and business attitude towards the European Union, 27,833 UK based residents and businesses answered questions concerning issues that impact on UK drivers ‘in’ or ‘out’ of the EU. Here are the results of what you said, not what FairFuelUK thinks:

Headline: When asked ‘Which way will you vote in the EU Referendum?’: 76.4% said leave with 12.9% remain. As the age of respondents increases the likelihood of voting to leave the EU increases. Headline: 76% of respondents who run their own businesses favour leaving the EU with 81.2% of ‘white van persons’ wanting out too. Nearly 7 out of 10 HGV drivers also wish to vote leave on Thursday.