Official: Government to ban new petrol and diesel car sales in 2030

[jonwat]

Autocar 

Only 9 years away 

[exeterjeep]

Thought at first this 9 years was for the brexit deal or the end of the covid 19 epidemic.

But in reality I can't see how everything would be in place by then bearing in mind the time that it takes government to organise things. Think we will be buying a stock of petrol cars in september 2029., and then in 2029 buying the last hybrids..

 

[pete]

Wonder how long they will keep producing petrol and diesel for. How are they going to make up the billions they get from the fuel taxes.

[C8RKH]

A lot can happen in 9 years and it's not law yet lol.  What's more worrying to me is the EU's "nanny state" laws coming in to effect re automatic logging, tracking and adherence to speed limits meaning that probably in 9 years time you'll be pretty much hamstrung on the open public road anyway and therefore practically all driver "enjoyment" will be stopped and I can see this being the technology of choice rolled out by the Government to charge drivers by the mile.  Maybe we will see it first in Electric vehicles as a way of clawing back excise duty (and the subsidies for EV's) whilst petrol/diesel owners continue to be charged at the petrol pump.  This would be a sensible if controversial approach but it would not not require the retro fitting of tech to older cars meaning it would save money for Government, drivers etc and the problem would disappear as the older cars went end of life.  So sensible an approach it will never see the light of day I'm sure.

2 minutes ago, pete said:

Wonder how long they will keep producing petrol and diesel for. How are they going to make up the billions they get from the fuel taxes.

Decades mate. There's so much of it in the ground still and as demand falls they can still get at the easy stuff cheaply with no need to spend billions going for the harder to get stuff.  It'll be 20 years before you see a major shift and by then I'll be coming to the end of my driving years anyway and will be in a Tesla mobility scooter.

[pete]

And of course the rest of the world will follow us

[Chillidoggy]

Fear not! The Chancellor is already looking at ways of taxing electric vehicles to make up the shortfall lost from fuel duty. Thought you'd get away with it? Fat chance.

Probably be a tax on how many kW the car uses to charge it up.

[jonwat]

50 minutes ago, pete said:

Wonder how long they will keep producing petrol and diesel for. How are they going to make up the billions they get from the fuel taxes.

Road pricing 

[Neal H]

So, if you continue to run a IC car beyond 2030 you’ll have to pay under road pricing and still pay the fuel duty? Double tax on IC cars is going to make them very expensive to run, but perhaps that’s the plan.

Used values on any new IC cars bought in the next five years or so are going to take a major hit so probably best to avoid from this point, and with electric cars still being relatively very expensive they’re best avoided to at this stage as the technology should evolve quickly over the next few years. How many people are going to just wait and see what develops over the next few years and avoid buying new at this point? I know I will.

[C8RKH]

I think @Neal H that you will see a differentiated approach - road fund licence and fuel tax on IC will stay for sure, why throw away the systems used to collect the tax when it all works - and road pricing for "other fuel types" - this would be EV's, possibly Hybrids too.  The former would phase out as the cars come off the road so no "big switchover" needed and it wouldn't kill values for voters of their existing vehicles.

One thing is for sure, the EV subsidies need to stop and stop now. You need to drive the consumer price down and you don't do that through a subsidy as the mfrs get lazy/greedy and price the subsidy in to their retail strategies.

[Kimbers]

My Post from Facebook today:

As an Automotive Professional of 30 years there are many issues with this. I could mention the enviromental issues in that if we are all driving electric cars where will the electricity come from? The increase in requirement for power will go through the roof. Whilst I am talking about infrastructure don't expect this increase to come from renewables. Nuclear looks like the only reliable option? Sound good? Nope me either!! Next, You fill your cars up at a pump and it takes 1-2 minutes. Even on a booster charge an electric car will take 45 minutes for an 80% fill. So even if you change every fuel pump in the country for an electric charger you will have queues for the charging points all the way down every motorways and people waiting hours to charge.

This will undoubtedly kill many businesses. Many Reps and salespeople do more than 3-500 miles in a single day. I know I can drive to Newcastle and back on a regular basis on less than a tank of fuel. A modern electric car has 250 miles max when its new (some have a lot less).....this is another point as they lose battery power over time.... That means a minimum of 2 electrical fills of 45 minutes if you can find a charging point. Adding an Hour and half to a working day and that will have to be paid for!

Add in that currently an Electric car is way more expensive than a normal car, it lasts a lot less time (Currently 5-7 years before the battery packs are down to 60-80 miles, There are loads of articles and proof about this as the first batch of Electric production cars get to 5 years old) there isn't enough production of batteries and you can't get replacements when they are drained. Even if you could why would you spend £15000 on batteries to get a car worth £8000 back on the road? Then you have disposal issues as they can't be reconditioned or recycled so you will need massive toxic stores as over time the batteries start to degenerate and give out toxic elements. In past times a car could easily have a 20-30 year life span. I have owned several classic cars from the 70's & 80's. in future cars will be useless after 5-8 years depending on battery life, yet you will spend much more. A Renault Zoe (Small city car) costs about £26000, whereas a petrol Kia Picanto costs £10-12000.

Lithium-Ion is a limited resource with current level of use expecting us to have around 200 years of resource. However with an increase of 50 times expected with the banning of Petrolium based engines this will last less time than our current stocks or oil. Plus, Lithium Salt mining is both damaging to the enviroment and uses a lot of water. It has already cleaned out whole lakes and deltas in areas where Water is in short supply.

Next the Fuel Tax revenue of the UK is 2.3% of total GDP ($2.98Trillion). Yes I know it says 1.3% but its down by 1% due to lockdown and expected to go back up when COVID ends. So thats around £60 Billion in a normal year. Where do you think this will come from? Well according to research the Govt will mix in increases in Electricity charges as a tax and road user charges. Those who currently enjoy zero Road tax on electric cars won't get it and anyone with a company car....well forget it! Don't also forget that I mentioned above that there isn't the electrical infrastructure to enable all this, so investment will be made and.....guess who will pay!! Taxpayer.

Lastly (and its not actually last as I could go on for hours) Think about heating your house. Not only will we be short on electricity because of a huge rise in demand but with Oil not being used in vast quantities, extracting Oil and refining it into its core components will be hugely more expensive. Not an issue you may think....what about the cost of your Heating Oil? Gas for your oven or heating? Your makeup, Rubber making for car tyres etc etc.

What you are looking at here is the end of independence for members of the public. It will either be too expensive to run a car, or the Govt will then use shortages as an excuse to put people on expensive public transport (which isn't fit for purpose). Add in the fact that every time you plug your car in you need to swipe and ID badge to register who you are and the conspiracy theorists will go wild about state monitoring.

So you can see. I'm a big fan!! Though I do wonder how many of the decision makers have stakes in electricity companies!!

[dave excell]

Cant hlep agreeing with Kimders on this.  I have worked in the Nuclear industry for close on 50 years and am looking to retirig before  I reach my 76th birthday. To get the power needed for all those green 'all electric' homes as well as charging millions of electric vehicles nuclear is the only option for GB.  has any one thought of what battery pack is needed to power a 40 ton electric HGV. Dont get me wrong, I have driven electric vehicles and the perform extremely well, but the 'greeniies' havent thought things through properly yet. A store for used batteries? yes the obvious place Sellafield.

[Spinney]

I’m no fan of electric cars but in the interests of a bit of balance regarding available power sources:-

Don’t shoot the messenger by the way!

[mg4lotus]

Is Graeme a forum member? Just interested, not stalking.

[C8RKH]

7 hours ago, Kimbers said:

My Post from Facebook today:

As an Automotive Professional of 30 years there are many issues with this. I could mention the enviromental issues in that if we are all driving electric cars where will the electricity come from? The increase in requirement for power will go through the roof. Whilst I am talking about infrastructure don't expect this increase to come from renewables. Nuclear looks like the only reliable option? Sound good? Nope me either!! Next, You fill your cars up at a pump and it takes 1-2 minutes. Even on a booster charge an electric car will take 45 minutes for an 80% fill. So even if you change every fuel pump in the country for an electric charger you will have queues for the charging points all the way down every motorways and people waiting hours to charge.

This will undoubtedly kill many businesses. Many Reps and salespeople do more than 3-500 miles in a single day. I know I can drive to Newcastle and back on a regular basis on less than a tank of fuel. A modern electric car has 250 miles max when its new (some have a lot less).....this is another point as they lose battery power over time.... That means a minimum of 2 electrical fills of 45 minutes if you can find a charging point. Adding an Hour and half to a working day and that will have to be paid for!

Add in that currently an Electric car is way more expensive than a normal car, it lasts a lot less time (Currently 5-7 years before the battery packs are down to 60-80 miles, There are loads of articles and proof about this as the first batch of Electric production cars get to 5 years old) there isn't enough production of batteries and you can't get replacements when they are drained. Even if you could why would you spend £15000 on batteries to get a car worth £8000 back on the road? Then you have disposal issues as they can't be reconditioned or recycled so you will need massive toxic stores as over time the batteries start to degenerate and give out toxic elements. In past times a car could easily have a 20-30 year life span. I have owned several classic cars from the 70's & 80's. in future cars will be useless after 5-8 years depending on battery life, yet you will spend much more. A Renault Zoe (Small city car) costs about £26000, whereas a petrol Kia Picanto costs £10-12000.

Lithium-Ion is a limited resource with current level of use expecting us to have around 200 years of resource. However with an increase of 50 times expected with the banning of Petrolium based engines this will last less time than our current stocks or oil. Plus, Lithium Salt mining is both damaging to the enviroment and uses a lot of water. It has already cleaned out whole lakes and deltas in areas where Water is in short supply.

Next the Fuel Tax revenue of the UK is 2.3% of total GDP ($2.98Trillion). Yes I know it says 1.3% but its down by 1% due to lockdown and expected to go back up when COVID ends. So thats around £60 Billion in a normal year. Where do you think this will come from? Well according to research the Govt will mix in increases in Electricity charges as a tax and road user charges. Those who currently enjoy zero Road tax on electric cars won't get it and anyone with a company car....well forget it! Don't also forget that I mentioned above that there isn't the electrical infrastructure to enable all this, so investment will be made and.....guess who will pay!! Taxpayer.

Lastly (and its not actually last as I could go on for hours) Think about heating your house. Not only will we be short on electricity because of a huge rise in demand but with Oil not being used in vast quantities, extracting Oil and refining it into its core components will be hugely more expensive. Not an issue you may think....what about the cost of your Heating Oil? Gas for your oven or heating? Your makeup, Rubber making for car tyres etc etc.

What you are looking at here is the end of independence for members of the public. It will either be too expensive to run a car, or the Govt will then use shortages as an excuse to put people on expensive public transport (which isn't fit for purpose). Add in the fact that every time you plug your car in you need to swipe and ID badge to register who you are and the conspiracy theorists will go wild about state monitoring.

So you can see. I'm a big fan!! Though I do wonder how many of the decision makers have stakes in electricity companies!!

You know I said a lot of this in a previous life with @Kas firmly in the your "self projecting" point of view.  Interesting how a year or so later it is becoming mainstream 

[mdavies]

All kinds of points made and angles mentioned on this subject in the posts here and elsewhere, but one potentially significant aspect was missing, I felt: the potential societal reaction to something that could have such major effects on the lives of many people - in the age of the internet and social media.  I started drafting a paragraph on it twice tonight, and stalled both times.  Should I, dare I, risk saying that?  (I mean for rather more serious reasons than any flak here!)

Now I don't have to worry - unless the Telegraph thinks I taken a little too much from the concluding paragraph of a new article on-line tonight. probably for tomorrow's edition.  But I will risk that.  An unedited quote:

"The green agenda contains within it the potential for myriad poll tax moments, gilet jaunes-style revolts, and routes to renewed influence and even power for the likes of Nigel Farage. If not managed carefully, the greening of our society could end up being even more toxic for the Tories – with the threat coming from the “Right”, in suburban England and in the Red Wall – than Brexit ever was to the party’s old establishment."

Edited November 18, 2020 by mdavies

[C8RKH]

The problem with the "green agenda" is that all their policies expect and indeed rely upon "non green agenda" people paying for whatever it is that they deem to be worthy.

[Kimbers]

17 hours ago, Spinney said:

I’m no fan of electric cars but in the interests of a bit of balance regarding available power sources:-

Don’t shoot the messenger by the way!

God I have so many queries and points after watching that. The primary one is "Well you have to charge when everyone isn't using their electricity" otherwise they won't have enough power is the implication here! And thats part of the problem. I want to fill up with fuel when I want, and I can with a petrol car, not when the National grid tell me they have enough power to do so! Can you imagine getting half way home and going to charge your car at a station with 2-3 million other people who want to get home and finding out there isn't enough power? Cause it will happen! 

97% of the cars life will be stationary. He obviously doesn't include the millions of reps on the road 50% of time!!

[Spinney]

4 minutes ago, Kimbers said:

97% of the cars life will be stationary. He obviously doesn't include the millions of reps on the road 50% of time!!

No, no, you don’t understand, they won’t be on the road any longer as they’ll all be working from home in this new future world we are being steered towards.

With that in mind, their shiny new car sat on the driveway will be used as an energy storage facility. 

Every day I’m feeling more and more alienated by the direction in which we are headed. I agree some changes are very necessary but doesn’t mean I have to like it.

I’ve always thought an annual cull of the terminally stupid would be a far more efficient way of regulating the effects of the human race on our planet. 😉

 

[C8RKH]

I raised a lot of these points with a muppet on here earlier this year but just kept on being told I was "self projecting" and didn't know what I was talking about despite actually being involved in EV infrastructure and planning for it with Utilities.  Ho hum...

I'm with you @Spinney. I know the changes are necessary but don't like the direction of travel and absolutely believe that an annual cull would be great. Start with the politicians and work up from there.

[Kimbers]

I have always been very Anti Conspiracy theory but.......

Isn't it funny that we are all being told the new normal is working from home and not going out and then they announce this. Seems like a whole large % of the population will now have their arguments covered "Well you aren't meant to be out seeing customers anyway!". 

It also means having to swipe an ID card whenever you fill up and I suspect they will introduce Mileage charges as a way to cover the loss in taxes so will have Tracking fitted....oh wait, if you have downloaded track and trace you already have it!

I still don't believe the Conspiracy theorists but as time goes on I do get closer to where they are on the subject!

[SFO]

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/556842
 

[jonwat]

And gas boilers too 😃

[Spinney]

22 minutes ago, jonwat said:

And gas boilers too 😃

I’m actually all for heat pumps and if I were having a house built, would absolutely spec ground source heat pump and underfloor heating. I already have an air source heat pump in part of my house, which doubles up as aircon in the summer and that works great. It’s not cheap to run though. 

Having said all that, I mostly heat the house with a 31 year old gas boiler which I know isn’t the most efficient. What it is, though, is reliable and there’s no way I will voluntarily change it for a new lightweight ‘efficient’ boiler with an expected life of only 10 years. I can still buy most parts for it online, so don’t intend renewing it any time soon. 

Anyhow I’m going off piste and away from Leccie cars now, so back to the topic. 😁

[jonwat]

Never mind, Boris has changed his mind 😃

[C8RKH]

1 hour ago, jonwat said:

Never mind, Boris has changed his mind 😃

They've already started the trials of introducing "green hydrogen" into the domestic gas mix which in itself has a hugely POSITIVE impact on the carbon cost of gas for heating homes and water. Given the infrastructure that already exists, and the age of our general housing stock, this approach of "reducing" the impact of a supply that is already established with all the infrastructure in place, is a very cost effective and quick fix.  The problem is everybody is in a rush to get their Scouting "green" badge and no one is really thinking through their options, the decisions etc. Typical really of society in general today.