Coronavirus

[exeterjeep]

Even the footie is getting postponed. 

Premier League and government urge footballers to get Covid-19 vaccine

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/59702363

In the English Football League - where 25% of players say they do not intend to get the jab - 19 fixtures due to be played on Saturday have been postponed.

Premier League chief executive Richard Masters has asked clubs to "strongly encourage" players to get vaccinated.

 

Not a good example to the footie fans...

[Barrykearley]

5 minutes ago, exeterjeep said:

Not a good example to the footie fans...

Yeah - but they do take the knee.

[gregs24]

16 hours ago, PaulCP said:

Help me understand this one guys

Todays number of cases 93,000, of which Omicron is 3,200.
It is reported that Omicron cases in London, the SE, East of England and Midlands is over 50%. 
Omicron is the dominant variant in Scotland. 

The quotes above don’t make much sense to me. If the total number of cases is 90,000 above reported Omicron cases, and Omicron is the dominant strain, what makes up those 90,000 cases.

What am I missing🤔

You are not missing anything however the 'omicron' figure is only confirmed cases. There are actually at least 2 strains of 'omicron' but the dominant one has the 's gene deletion' which SOME PCR tests can distinguish but not all. The other strain cannot be distinguished on PCR alone. The only other way to tell is to genome type positive samples. This takes a few days.

So that 3200 figure represents the available data based on the above, the actual figure will be much higher. 'delta' currently hasn't gone away, just 'omicron' is adding to it and overtaking it. It has gone from nothing to equality with 'delta' in 3 weeks - impressive stuff!

Also consider that those sample results. You get infected today, symptoms after 4 days or so, test the next day and send off, a day or so in the lab to getting results to ONS. Ignore the asymptomatic cases that never even know they have it or those that don't bother testing. That is about 7 to 10 days from infection to 'result' for a virus that is doubling every 2 days or less. The doubling is easy to confirm from data we have. So double that 90,000 cases for lets say 8 days to be conservative - that is 1.4 million cases per day after 8 days - in other words where we are now by extrapolation from the current figures. Even if you take a cautious approach to the calculation it is likely we are already getting 1 million cases a day NOW. At this rate the peak will be huge and very soon, probably before the end of the year. If you haven't had, it you soon will, unless you live under a stone on an island!

Then consider the hospitalisation rate (it is actually thought that 'omicron' is about the same pathogenicity as 'delta' but the high level of immunity in SA is the reason for lower hospitalisation rates having just had a 'delta' wave there) then that is a LOT of hospitalisations. Crucially don't forget the lag effect here. Infection to clinical signs, about 4 days, onset of signs to hospitalisation about 7 days, and then progression to death another 7 to 10 days, so that million cases a day will not show as hospitalisations until between Christmas and  New Year with deaths showing in January. The only positive thing is that this thing is spreading so fast it will get us all very soon and peak soon as it runs out of hosts. In fact it is probably far too late now to do anything about it and it could peak in the next 10 days (although the data will only show this in January because of the lag).

I wonder what percentage of the UK population will spend Christmas ill? Maybe 30% ?

 

[gregs24]

18 hours ago, thebartman said:

Question - to those that know - 

If you have covid and need to self isolate for 10 days, can you have a "day 8" PCR test and if negative, return to the known world? i.e. 2 days early? when does infectious stage disappear? is it different for different (UK) countries?

Firstly, it is very unlikely you will test negative on PCR at day 8. The PCR test is very sensitive and detects even fragments of virus for some time. You could easily test positive on PCR for a month after infection. Lateral flow however is really quite well correlated with infectivity. You will notice the test line getting paler as you start to feel better and once it has faded completely around day 8 / 9 you are almost certainly not contagious any more. Some work on 7000 Covid cases found none were shedding viable virus (virions) at day 9. This is the reason for the day 10 cut off. The only fly in the ointment is if you are immunocompromised where the above time scale may not hold true. In fact it is thought that is how 'omicron' came about in a chronically infected HIV patient where the virus remained in the body and mutated many times over before it spread to somebody else. There is a huge 'gap' in the genome back to a very early strain of the virus, it is not derived from 'delta'.

[gregs24]

34 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

It’s been here far longer there will be little or no doubt about that. The original covid strain was in the uk months before the government admitted the fact.

We can see UK governments now pulling in desperate different directions over this new mutant strain which has already been lauded by scientists to be less of an issue to health. The Welsh and Scottish are being particularly mischievous in blaming London for lack of funding.

all the while - are the bodies piling up in the streets?? 

Nice try, but your 'opinions' lack data or logic to back them up. Perhaps you could start by explaining how a strain with a doubling rate of 2 days or less could be here 'much longer' without doing what it has over the timescale it has. If it arrived even 2 weeks earlier cases would already be much higher.

The time origin of COVID is not in doubt. Retrospective analysis of samples has been able to confirm when and where COVID was present in various countries with a considerable degree of certainty. This data is easily available.

Dating first cases of COVID-19 (plos.org)

 

Put your tin foil hat back on and keep your conspiracy theories to yourself 😉

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, gregs24 said:

Put your tin foil hat back on and keep your conspiracy theories to yourself 😉

Nowt to do with tin foil hats - all to do with the fact it’s clear the political elite are full of crap - the media hyping it up into a frenzy and scientists getting somewhat dooms day about it all.

Shall we all hide and never go out for a year? Or shall we actually get on with living 

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, gregs24 said:

The time origin of COVID is not in doubt.

Let’s not forget the lies peddled by the government before the very first lockdowns. You really think they can be trusted now?

The obsession with the data becomes the issue - test and you will find - test more and you will find it’s more virulent. 
 

one things for sure - Mother Nature, or the Chinese are securing their future if you likes foil hats,  is having a little bite back but less and less folks are dying of other things.

[windymiller]

it would probably be quite alarming to see how many european companies have been bought on the cheap by the chinese during the last 2 years, they did the same in 2008 and end up owning the mineral resource, production and high street sale

[exeterjeep]

Major incident been declared in London according to our well loved BBC.

Mayor says "I've taken the decision, in consultation with our partners, to declare a major incident. It's a statement of how serious things are."

[eeyoreish]

From what I’m hearing on the radio I think we’ll be lucky to get a Christmas before mixing indoors is banned again in a ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown. As for New Year, I think we can forget any idea of partying then ☹️

[exeterjeep]

3 minutes ago, eeyoreish said:

I think we can forget any idea of partying then

what is a party.

[eeyoreish]

In this instance, having some friends visit your house. Soon to be a thing of the past…🤨

[exeterjeep]

Thought it might be a desk based internet quiz, and definitely no food/drink.

[gregs24]

2 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Let’s not forget the lies peddled by the government before the very first lockdowns. You really think they can be trusted now?

The obsession with the data becomes the issue - test and you will find - test more and you will find it’s more virulent. 
 

one things for sure - Mother Nature, or the Chinese are securing their future if you likes foil hats,  is having a little bite back but less and less folks are dying of other things.

What is your obsession with the government. The link I posted has NOTHING to do with any government

So your approach would be to ignore it and pretend it isn't there - brilliant strategy

Bit in bold fundamentally incorrect and sounds like The Donald.

2 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Nowt to do with tin foil hats - all to do with the fact it’s clear the political elite are full of crap - the media hyping it up into a frenzy and scientists getting somewhat dooms day about it all.

Shall we all hide and never go out for a year? Or shall we actually get on with living 

The political elite are full of crap - this has nothing to do with the political elite. Nothing to do with hiding for a year, yes get on living and avoid death from a nasty disease.

59 minutes ago, exeterjeep said:

Major incident been declared in London according to our well loved BBC.

Mayor says "I've taken the decision, in consultation with our partners, to declare a major incident. It's a statement of how serious things are."

A 28.6% increase in a week is indeed serious and not unexpected. All scare mongering according to some on here. Remember this is reflecting the situation about 2 weeks ago when cases were significantly less.

Edited December 18, 2021 by gregs24

[gregs24]

48 minutes ago, eeyoreish said:

From what I’m hearing on the radio I think we’ll be lucky to get a Christmas before mixing indoors is banned again in a ‘circuit breaker’ lockdown. As for New Year, I think we can forget any idea of partying then ☹️

Honestly, it is almost certainly too late now for any restrictions to make a difference. Not to say they will not happen but the stable door is already wide open.

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, exeterjeep said:

Major incident been declared in London according to our well loved BBC.

Mayor says "I've taken the decision, in consultation with our partners, to declare a major incident. It's a statement of how serious things are."

Hang on - this is frankly an outright lie. A blatant misrepresentation of facts for a convenient skewing of the argument.

year after year after year we have had major incidents declared at hospitals in the winter months. This is not the unique covid mutation causing this. Moreover the lack of nhs funding for the demands placed upon the service.

It’s about time there was an honest discussion about nhs and it’s funding. it’s not there to make us live forever, not there to save lives that then become a burden to society after accidents, not there to change the genders of confused folks, the joke of today’s entitlement society simply goes on and on.

So 

Mr Khan said: "The really bad news is those in hospital - the vast, vast majority are unvaccinated that's why it is so important to get both the vaccines and the booster jab.

however government scientists have been increasing clear that 2/3 of those in hospitals have indeed been double jabbed. 
 

is London different then? 

[gregs24]

22 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

Hang on - this is frankly an outright lie. A blatant misrepresentation of facts for a convenient skewing of the argument.

year after year after year we have had major incidents declared at hospitals in the winter months. This is not the unique covid mutation causing this. Moreover the lack of nhs funding for the demands placed upon the service.

It’s about time there was an honest discussion about nhs and it’s funding. it’s not there to make us live forever, not there to save lives that then become a burden to society after accidents, not there to change the genders of confused folks, the joke of today’s entitlement society simply goes on and on.

So 

Mr Khan said: "The really bad news is those in hospital - the vast, vast majority are unvaccinated that's why it is so important to get both the vaccines and the booster jab.

however government scientists have been increasing clear that 2/3 of those in hospitals have indeed been double jabbed. 
 

is London different then? 

 

This is not an individual hospital based major incident it is a London based major incident. They are few and far between, the last being last year's COVID crisis in January. Why or how this is an 'outright lie' I don't know - perhaps you might like to explain your comments ? Clearly the arrival of 'omicron' 3 weeks ago has completely changed the situation - do you not understand this ?

No need to guess about vaccination rates in hospital admissions as all the data is there freely available. 

COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 49 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

Table 9 has the data you want about vaccination status for hospital admissions by age group.

 

Covid-19: How is vaccination affecting hospital admissions and deaths? | The BMJ

NHS funding is indeed a separate discussion point and would inevitably mean cuts elsewhere or higher taxes - your choice. Some of the other comments do not warrant a response because of their nature.

[C8RKH]

On 16/12/2021 at 13:48, Bibs said:

an unvaccinated recluse in his seventies

Wonder how he caught it?

[Barrykearley]

Fleas - gotta be from the fleas

[gregs24]

11 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

Wonder how he caught it?

Not quite as reclusive as everybody thought!

[Barrykearley]

His weekly entertainment visit from simplyfans ??

[exeterjeep]

19 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

Wonder how he caught it?

Could have a lady comes in once/twice a day...

 

Covid: Dutch to enter tight lockdown over Omicron wave

The Netherlands has announced a Christmas lockdown amid concerns over the Omicron coronavirus variant.

Non-essential shops, schools, bars, restaurants and other public venues will be closed until at least mid-January. Prime Minister Mark Rutte said the restrictions were "unavoidable".

It marks the strictest rules to have been announced over Omicron so far.

Countries across Europe have been tightening restrictions as the heavily mutated variant spreads.

The new rules in the Netherlands, which come into force on Sunday, were announced following a meeting between the government and health experts

[C8RKH]

Latest news is that Scientists have identified a new, and even more virulent than the Omicron, Covid pathogen, they've named it the 'Peek-a-boo' variant.

It's so virulent that anyone diagnosed with Peek-a-boo is being referred immediately to ICU.

[Barrykearley]

37 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

they've named it the 'Peek-a-boo' variant.

What? Hang on it’s only 7pm on a Saturday night and you are actually more lashed than me? Don’t open another bottle of red ffs.

[Barrykearley]

Well this morning is looking more and more like we will end up back in another 8 week lockdown after xmas. The political elite don’t want it for sure - and I don’t think it’ll happen before the new year. 
 

To even do this - they would have to bring back furlough. Just sat mulling it all over now.

Remembering the first lockdowns - the roads were empty, petrol fell to an all time low - looking on the positive side - it’s a petrol heads dream.