Coronavirus

[gregs24]

7 hours ago, SFO said:

From The Telegraph 

The growing prevalence of omicron in the community also means that there are far more people likely to test positive on entering hospital, compared to during previous waves. 

Overall, nearly 30 per cent of people currently in hospital with Covid are “incidental” cases - 1,813 out of 6,245 - the highest it has been since the NHS started releasing the figures in the summer.

The number of incidental Covid cases has been rising in recent weeks because omicron is far more infectious than delta, meaning that many people will be entering hospital unknowingly infected.

In the previous week, December 7 to December 14 - when the vast majority of hospitalisations were still delta - some 59 per cent of the 289 weekly rise was primarily Covid.

Experts said it was important to treat the current hospital data with caution, while Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, said: “This is not the same disease we were seeing a year ago.

“The horrific scenes that we saw a year ago – intensive care units being full, lots of people dying prematurely – that is now history in my view and I think…that’s likely to continue."

Chris Hopson, the chief executive of NHS Providers, which represents hospitals, said it was important not to over-interpret the recent rises in hospitalisations. 

“What our guys are saying is that incidental cases are making around 25 to 30 per cent of cases that are arriving, but that will vary from place to place," he said.

“In London, you would expect to see higher levels and lower in somewhere like the South West, where community infections are lower.

“They are seeing an increase in the number of hospital admissions, but it's not precipitous. It's not going up in an exponential way. As the number of cases in the community rises, there are significant levels of incidental cases. 

“So what our chief executives are saying is just be careful about over-interpreting the data. But we mustn't forget that having those people in hospital causes complications because of infection control measures.

“You can’t judge NHS pressure solely on Covid caseload, as hospital and ambulance services are under significant amounts of pressure and are struggling with high numbers of staff absences.”

Latest data released on Tuesday shows the number of people now in hospital in England has risen to 9,546, although the full breakdown of how many of these are incidental cases has not yet been released.

More cases of incidental Covid compared to previous waves

Doctors also said they were seeing far more cases of incidental Covid compared to previous waves. 

Dr Raghib Ali, a consultant in acute medicine at Oxford University Hospitals, said: “There is certainly a smaller proportion of people ending up with Covid pneumonia in intensive care. 

“Probably half the cases I’ve seen are incidentals. You’ve got completely incidental cases, someone coming in with a broken leg, who also tests positive for Covid, then a third category of older people who have comorbidities. Maybe they’ve had a fall or chest pain and also test positive and it's unclear if the virus is having some sort of impact.

“We’re also seeing more incidentals than previous waves because people were scared to come in, so there were not so many patients around to also test positive. 

“And when the prevalence of a virus with relatively mild symptoms is high in the community then you will see higher incidentals.”

The figures are similar to those seen in omicron hotspots such as Gauteng in South Africa, where up to 52 per cent of Covid admissions were people who were admitted for other conditions but also tested positive for Covid.  

Fears of continuing pressure on the NHS

However, experts warned that the extra admissions were still putting pressure on the health service, and nurses were struggling to isolate patients in wards. 

Which doesn't answer the question I posed. Even though (as is clear) some of those COVID cases are incidental findings and more so with omicron, admissions to critical care have almost doubled in two weeks. Unlike some I know the number of critical care beds available in England. Not sure how doubling admissions cannot be considered a problem, something also agreed with by the Telegraph.

1 hour ago, Barrykearley said:

Oh look and Dr Ali can see the problems when folks are too scared to attend hospitals. He cites “incidentals” so they are the ones whom are positive but are actually there for something else. Back to an earlier point about late presentation cancer patients - they will be the true victims of the covid policies and scare whipping mps, media and scientists.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59823652
 

the bbc report they are to set up some covid hubs - best they crack on with that before the sack the thousands of health care professionals whom haven’t been good boys and girls and had the jab they have been ordered to have without their consent.

So you admit there is insufficient capacity, complain about the undiagnosed cancer patients (of which there will be some) but fail to explain what YOU would do with the COVID admissions ? What is your plan for them - chuck them in a field somewhere to die ? Or are you suggesting the NHS critical care admissions are a figment of the media's imagination and everything is really just a scaremongering tactic ?

[Bibs]

What, laying in bed next to a pretty lady?!

Think the NHS missed the mark with this one!! 

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

Sign of the times that said pretty young lady is still clinging on to her mobile phone to keep tabs on her socials, despite her implied illness and distress.

[Barrykearley]

3 hours ago, gregs24 said:

So you admit there is insufficient capacity, complain about the undiagnosed cancer patients (of which there will be some) but fail to explain what YOU would do with the COVID admissions ? What is your plan for them - chuck them in a field somewhere to die ? Or are you suggesting the NHS critical care admissions are a figment of the media's imagination and everything is really just a scaremongering tactic ?

Let’s be honest - doesn’t matter how many beds there are in the nhs - they will fill them no matter what. 

[SFO]

4 hours ago, gregs24 said:

admissions to critical care have almost doubled in two weeks. 

Total numbers of CV19 patients on ventilators - I assume this means critical care - has remained around 850 for the past 2 weeks

It would be interesting to find out how many spare hospital beds there are currently, as compared to the same period in 2019 

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, SFO said:

It would be interesting to find out how many spare hospital beds there are currently

I highly doubt that will be easy to find out. There’s whole wards in hospitals completely closed. Some would say due to covid overload and staffing because the ICU with 6/8/10/12 beds that are rammed full. 

[Barrykearley]

5 hours ago, gregs24 said:

So you admit there is insufficient capacity, complain about the undiagnosed cancer patients (of which there will be some) but fail to explain what YOU would do with the COVID admissions ? What is your plan for them - chuck them in a field somewhere to die ? Or are you suggesting the NHS critical care admissions are a figment of the media's imagination and everything is really just a scaremongering tactic ?

Not sure where you think I’ve cited my opinion of insufficient capacity. My point is the picture is frankly being mispresented. A spin story of different statistics and scare tactics. The government are apparently in control - they are in the next few months about to remove a chunk of capacity from their own healthcare provision with the compulsory vaccination policy within the nhs. The care sector has seen this already with many leaving the sector due to not wishing their bodies to be injected with something they do not consent to. 

Let’s face it - it’s in everybody bar the free man (or woman) interests to whip up a scare storm as much as possible. All the while civil rights can be watered down and cash removed from circulation. NHS providers can argue for even more money - private practice can sweep in and scoop up more - since bank workers and private providers are exempt from this compulsory vaccination policy. 

I may not be bothered to cite back to source to some written report or paper - but frankly most of the stuff you have is merely one side of the wrangling and can be very eloquently argued by some with a greater vocabulary than just my thick self.

 

[gregs24]

1 hour ago, SFO said:

Total numbers of CV19 patients on ventilators - I assume this means critical care - has remained around 850 for the past 2 weeks

It would be interesting to find out how many spare hospital beds there are currently, as compared to the same period in 2019 

You can be in critical care and not on a ventilator.

Are you denying the case numbers and hospital admissions are up?

Remember this time last year without a vaccine there were 4000 admissions per day, so clearly there is less strain, but are you really so cavalier that you are prepared to risk it happening again. 

Another week yet until I revisit your post on page 177 where you were suggesting the whole thing was just scare mongering and cases were not really going up.

 

2 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Let’s be honest - doesn’t matter how many beds there are in the nhs - they will fill them no matter what. 

Which isn't the answer to my question

30 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

Not sure where you think I’ve cited my opinion of insufficient capacity. My point is the picture is frankly being mispresented. A spin story of different statistics and scare tactics. The government are apparently in control - they are in the next few months about to remove a chunk of capacity from their own healthcare provision with the compulsory vaccination policy within the nhs. The care sector has seen this already with many leaving the sector due to not wishing their bodies to be injected with something they do not consent to. 

Let’s face it - it’s in everybody bar the free man (or woman) interests to whip up a scare storm as much as possible. All the while civil rights can be watered down and cash removed from circulation. NHS providers can argue for even more money - private practice can sweep in and scoop up more - since bank workers and private providers are exempt from this compulsory vaccination policy. 

I may not be bothered to cite back to source to some written report or paper - but frankly most of the stuff you have is merely one side of the wrangling and can be very eloquently argued by some with a greater vocabulary than just my thick self.

 

I've not quoted anything on 'one side' - just data.

I'm not sure what this scare storm is? What are you getting scared about that is not backed up by the data ? Are you suggesting the pandemic is all just made up ?

[gregs24]

Covid: Anti-vax protesters disrupt Milton Keynes NHS test centre - BBC News

Wonderful. If anybody is spreading fear and scaremongering it is this bunch of morons. I know what I would do with their civil rights!

[gregs24]

Cases set to break 200,000 (joinzoe.com)

Looks promising for younger people that the peak is happening but for the older more vulnerable it is yet to happen, and more of them will end up in hospital. See the data by age range graph. It should also be remembered that London is ahead of the rest of the UK so a rapid fall there will occur whilst significant rises are happening outside of London. Also remember this is the ZOE study so not dependent on testing rates - it is a regular screening survey

 

[Barrykearley]

The rate it’s going it’ll be but a matter of weeks before the daily case rate is 65million 🙄

[PaulCP]

1 hour ago, gregs24 said:

Covid: Anti-vax protesters disrupt Milton Keynes NHS test centre - BBC News

Wonderful. If anybody is spreading fear and scaremongering it is this bunch of morons. I know what I would do with their civil rights!

I may have posted this before but recently a doctor addressed this issue quite well.

”If you don’t approve of having the Covid vaccine because you don’t know what’s in the vaccine, then you should also not expect to be treated in hospital if you are hospitalised due to Covid since you also won’t know what is in the drugs you are going to be treated with”

[Bibs]

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044331/20211230_OS__Omicron_Daily_Overview.pdf

815 cases in hospital and 54 Omicron deaths to date in the UK. 

I get it's only been here 3-4 weeks, it's unpleasant and there's Long Covid to consider, but it's hardly bad news at present. 

[gregs24]

33 minutes ago, PaulCP said:

I may have posted this before but recently a doctor addressed this issue quite well.

”If you don’t approve of having the Covid vaccine because you don’t know what’s in the vaccine, then you should also not expect to be treated in hospital if you are hospitalised due to Covid since you also won’t know what is in the drugs you are going to be treated with”

Indeed so

[gregs24]

13 minutes ago, Bibs said:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044331/20211230_OS__Omicron_Daily_Overview.pdf

815 cases in hospital and 54 Omicron deaths to date in the UK. 

I get it's only been here 3-4 weeks, it's unpleasant and there's Long Covid to consider, but it's hardly bad news at present. 

Yes, but you wouldn't expect many deaths yet. Most cases so far have been in lower risk younger people, the older at risk people are only just starting to see the rise in cases. See the ZOE data I posted earlier. Plus as explained yesterday the positive typed 'omicron' cases are only a small percentage of actual cases. 'Omicron is estimated at 90% of cases now based on the s - gene dropout in PCR tests. (SGTF cases in your link) Most PCR tests can distinguish this, again all the data on this was in the earlier link. Note also the deaths figure is under-reporting because of Christmas - you can see this in the total deaths reported.

So there will be many more hospitalisations and deaths to come - not fearmongering, just the reality, which is why additional space is being created in the Nightingale hubs for convalescent COVID cases (so they don't bung up critical care beds)

Now it is completely correct to distinguish this January from last January when there were virtually no vaccinated people, but it is also important to remember how much less contagious the strains were then compared to now. The peak of hospitalisations will be another 2 or 3 weeks at least just because of the demographics of the virus spread. It really isn't the virulence that is the problem, just the incredible growth (and rapid peak) in cases which means even for a much less virulent strain the surge in hospitalisations will be sudden and significant. The only good news is it seems that the peak will be short lived.

[Barrykearley]

41 minutes ago, gregs24 said:

Indeed so

That’s not that much different to refusing to treat an HIV patient due to their sexuality. Ethical? Ummm?

56 minutes ago, Bibs said:

I get it's only been here 3-4 weeks, it's unpleasant and there's Long Covid to consider, but it's hardly bad news at present. 

It’s all doom and gloom if you believe many - remember it’s doubling quickly and the nhs is overrun. 
 

Some may suggest leaving the unvaccinated in a field to die - but that’s unethical - so we will just need to wait and see what the next few weeks bring. Interestingly the SA aren’t having stockpiles of dead bodies to deal with.

[C8RKH]

20 hours ago, gregs24 said:

Exactly this. It is usual to include all contributory factors.

I think this is were the figures/stats get miss used.  For instance, how many people actually die of cancer absolutely on its own, as opposed to secondary or compound illnesses as a result of the cancer (and its treatments) weakening the immune system, causing secondary issues etc?  

So, what we get is data that has COVID as a "contributing factor" but the "stats" being used to quote the number of COVID deaths. So what you get is people saying xxx deaths "caused by COVID" where as in reality the death was likely caused by something else, with COVID as one (of possibly several) contributing factors. 

[Barrykearley]

Which is exactly my point @C8RKH - we are being misled about the “data”

Why and what for? All the while our freedoms and liberties are being manipulated. The vaccinated and unvaccinated are being pitted against each other. it’s causing massive divisions in families. That is not what good government is about.

[Markindevon]

1 hour ago, Bibs said:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1044331/20211230_OS__Omicron_Daily_Overview.pdf

815 cases in hospital and 54 Omicron deaths to date in the UK. 

I get it's only been here 3-4 weeks, it's unpleasant and there's Long Covid to consider, but it's hardly bad news at present. 

…and of course the 54 deaths will be ‘with’ this virus rather than of’ it.  We are in a further phase of ‘lies, dammed lies and statistics’. I used to respect Whitty but, given the way he’s misrepresented the data recently, I can’t say that any longer.

[PaulCP]

59 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

That’s not that much different to refusing to treat an HIV patient due to their sexuality. Ethical? Ummm?

 

I think you missed the point in my post that @gregs24was replying to.

The doctor at no point indicated any refusal to treat them, he was merely using an analogy to point out the hypocrisy in the views of some of the anti-vaccers, i.e. those who won’t have the vaccine because they don’t know what is in it.

Absolutely nothing to do with ethics.

[Barrykearley]

I do get your point @PaulCP I really do.

what gets mixed up it seems is many believe they can either force a needle into another’s arm or decline them treatment, remove their freedoms and sack them from their jobs.

welcome to covid-1984.

[Bibs]

It's a potentially life saving vaccine.

If you don't have it and get infected, you might die. Have it and get infected, and you more than likely won't.

Can't see any issue with being vaccinated. I'm immunocompromised so have quite a few and I'm very glad for them all! 

[100th_Idiot]

2 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

I do get your point @PaulCP I really do.

what gets mixed up it seems is many believe they can either force a needle into another’s arm or decline them treatment, remove their freedoms and sack them from their jobs.

welcome to covid-1984.

I;m not in favour of forcihng vacciination. People have a right to choose. I also have the right to have no respect for the ignorant twunts

[Barrykearley]

21 minutes ago, Bibs said:

It's a potentially life saving vaccine.

If you don't have it and get infected, you might die. Have it and get infected, and you more than likely won't.

Can't see any issue with being vaccinated. I'm immunocompromised so have quite a few and I'm very glad for them all! 

No argument one that from me - I’m double jabbed - but won’t be having my booster just yet due to other long covid issues.

[SFO]

10 hours ago, gregs24 said:

You can be in critical care and not on a ventilator.

Are you denying the case numbers and hospital admissions are up?

 

No doubt you can be in critical care and not be on a ventilator for non Covid issues.

how many CV19 patients are in critical care for CV19 as opposed to being in critical care with CV19?

I don't see how you concluded I was denying admissions and case numbers being up when I was referring to numbers on ventilators.

the issue is transparency with Government data .. we have no reliable or clear data on the numbers in hospital "because of" and "with" CV19. This is crucial if we are to truly understand the virulence of omnicron.

instead, we get headline figures about CV19 that are misleading and no information - at least in the press - on hospital bed usage now when compared to the same period in 2019 .. again, this is important to understand the impact of CV19 on the NHS 

it is important to understand the virulence and impact of CV19 on NHS because decisions on restrictions, people's livelihoods and life chances, children's education and wellbeing are being made because of CV19

we must have a sober and comprehensive cost and benefit analysis of the measures being taken to deal with CV19 rather than just looking at headline CV19 case numbers and hospitalisations.