Is electric really the answer?

[eUKenGB]

19 minutes ago, dave excell said:

.. However as more contamination is produced in the manufacturer of the batteries than running an ICE for the lifetime of the vehicle…

And from where did this nugget of 'fact' originate?

45 minutes ago, KAS-118 said:

One of the things 'petrol heads' often complain about Electric Vehicles is the lack of sound.

I think a lot of what sounds 'right' is due to conditioning - i.e. we associate certain sounds with certain things and the louder the sound the more powerful we think whatever is making it is. 

Whilst I would agree that a 'throaty' roar of a V8 or V12 can sound intoxicating - and add to the sense of occasions - noise itself, especially loud noise, can be considered to some extent undesirable. Take for instance the next door neighbour who plays music loud - it may be heaven to them, but less so to those who live adjacent them.

However, what sounds we may associate with certain objects can change - perhaps an obvious example from the 20th Century is the aeroplane, I'm sure we all love the sound of a Merlin Engines Spitfire - but we now associate the (perhaps more unpleasant) sound of a jet as something which is faster and more powerful.

Whilst sound may, in some cases, be undesirable, it is still one of the human senses - and enables us to 'hear' danger. Hence, there are requirements for EV's that are travelling less than 20-30km/hr to emit some type of noise.

I therefore think its interesting what the engineers at Polestar (who like Lotus are owned by Geely) are doing. The sounds (both forward and reverse) can be heard here https://www.polestar.com/uk/news/the-sounds-of-the-polestar-2?utm_medium=crm&utm_source=em&utm_campaign=pcid_3483_41263_85343_206342_o_hq_1local_crm_em&utm_content=ad

To my ears, the 'forward' has a futuristic 'space-ship' sound - similar to what you might hear in a Sci-Fi mover such as a Star Wars Landspeeder - so I guess Fiction is becoming Fact. 

I'm sure its not going to  be to everyones liking - but I can't help but think that similar to the planes of the past, compared to the present, it may be something that we'll get used to. 

Indeed the lack of sound is an often heard complaint against EVs. But if it is mandatory for them to make a sound, why not have them emit the sounds of a big V8 or V12, or even better, the driver gets to select exactly what engine sounds are to be generated. Are the manufacturers not missing a trick here. Comply with the law AND give the user what they want to hear.

[C8RKH]

The production and decomposition of electric battery vehicles requires more energy and complicated labor ⁸. In this area, electric vehicles are less eco-friendly than internal combustion engines. A lithium ion battery is the most popular battery type used in electric battery vehicles ⁹. Despite lithium ion batteries being the best battery technology for vehicles, the production of these still emits 1.43 times more CO₂ than the production of combustion engines ⁶. 

[KAS-118]

1 hour ago, dave excell said:

While I was taking part in  L'Eroica  bike event in Italy we spent a day in Florence where a majority of vehicles in the center were electric. The noise was dreadful, as all electric vehicles were emitting beeping signals to warn pedestrians of there approach. Atmosphere was cleaner though. However as more contamination is produced in the manufacturer of the batteries than running an ICE for the lifetime of the vehicle moves the crap to a different part of the world. A bit of not in my back yard syndrome.  

David - you're perfectly entitled to have a view on Electric Cars - but It would be handy if we tried to keep this discussion based upon some kind of factual research (and yes, I accept 'paid' research may be used to slant one way or another to whoever's political agenda - but even so the source of an opinion would be useful).

Otherwise discussion just becomes reduced down to lies - like saying there isn't a storage and transportation  problem with hydrogen, or  you'll need an immense power supply if you're going to charge at home, or there's space for you to park your car on the street but apparently not to charge it.

There are clearly pro's and con's with electric vehicles - but whether you like it or not, ICE's are currently set to be banned whereas EV's aren't - and perhaps you should consider why many governments have taken that stance if the majority of the factual evidence demonstrated the opposite was true and EV's were overall worse than ICE's!?

So, I would respectfully suggest that over the lifetime of the vehicle EV's are not more damaging to the Environment - and to support that proposition I'll refer you to this piece of research, which suggests that EV's are approximately 1/3rd as harmful https://www.carbonbrief.org/factcheck-how-electric-vehicles-help-to-tackle-climate-change

Indeed, since this Report there has been an indication from Tesla that it intends to re-use its batteries, once their life in a car is at an end,  as home and/or grid storage devices - so if anything EV's environmental impact assessments are going to be improved even more. 

If you've got any scientific research that suggests the opposite then please provide a link - as I'd for one be interred to see it. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by KAS-118

[C8RKH]

@eUKenGB - I believe Lotus was indeed one of the first to "engineer" the noise from cars through stereo's/whatever so the technology certainly exists. However, like with most things these days we'll probably find the "anti fun police" complaining re the projected noise and it'll be barely louder than a whisper.

I guess the challenge is for neanderthals like me to move away from the "mechanical" noise/experience of ICE cars to the digital experience of EV's.

There is no doubting that EV's will be a major part of the future but I've not seen anything to tell me that they will be the ONLY option in the future.

I believe people still get "confused" over the issues with mass EV adoption especially around things like space to park - (not everyone had a dedicated parking space in our densely populated towns/cities so not everyone will have convenient (or indeed any) access to a public charger for overnight recharges) and the size of the infrastructure rework that will be needed to accommodate mass charging.

These issues are of course surmountable, but it will be a sizeable activity that is needed and a sizeable financial bill that will need to be paid. Post Covid, where will this money come from? I would wager NOT from central taxation!

I do think other options will come forward which seriously question whether we need to spend hundreds of billions on the infrastructure to rollout EV's and their chargers en masse. Right now we are seeing ICE vehicles being banned in cities and towns. But it will not end there. Increasingly, the evidence is building around the contaminants from braking systems and indeed even tyres and in many instances this form of pollution is more harmful to health than the majority of today's exhaust emissions. As a result, I think we will see greater investment in mass transportation systems (trams and autonomous buses for instance) for moving citizens around their cities and towns. We will see a further gradual restriction of personal vehicles from cities and towns as part of a shift to focus, in the new normal post Covid world, on health and well being. More road space will be given over to walking and cycling initiatives and car sharing schemes (where you don't own a car but merely have access to one when you need to travel outside of your metro area) will become the norm.  Any form of personal vehicle, ICE, Electric or even Hydrogen, will be driven out of the metropolitan areas and the use of vehicles in these areas will be seen as "anti-social".

Now might be a good time to start to look for shares and investments in mass transportation system manufacturers and providers. Diesel buses will be replaced by electric (either through wires, batteries or Hydrogen Fuel Cell) trams and buses that will be severely speed restricted in our towns and cities. This will reduce energy consumption and reduce pollutants to practically zero for transport. Diesel vans and lorries will be banned with volume deliveries to out of town locations that will then be split down in robotised/automated warehouses and loaded into autonomous electric vehicles (either BEV or HFC) for local deliveries. These will be smaller vehicles than the current super sized transits and lorries. They will be slow. The reason is that with significantly reduced roads they will be sharing more space with pedestrians and cyclists. Cities like Manchester, Edinburgh and Nottingham are already well placed to be at the forefront of these new metro revolutions. London for instance, could quickly find itself being left behind, stuck in the past through a lack of will, or capability, to change quickly.

Laws will need to be changed and new ones created. For instance, we could well see the introduction of compulsory insurance for cyclists to protect pedestrians from accidents with speeding/recklessly ridden electric bikes and scooters. These will become the new normal mode of powered "personal" transport in our major towns and cities.

So the original question was, "is electric really the answer?". My response is Yes, it will. But that does not mean BEV's!  They are doomed to failure before they have even begun and will never sell in the numbers that ICE cars did. Not because they are bad or rubbish. But because our societal changes in our towns and cities will make them redundant, unnecessary, and not relevant, as we move to a more sociably and environmentally sustainable future within our metropolitan areas.

I think the future is bleak for mass volume car makers who need to diversify. Much like the mega corporations of the past (GE etc) did.  Think Mitsubishi (everything from cars to trains to air conditioners to hifi's). Or Yamaha. In fact, the Japanese/Korean manufacturers are really leading the way globally. The future is not big, huge, car making corporations. The future for Ford, GM, Peugeot etc will be in turning their hands to volume manufacturing across products and sectors. They will become generalists, not specialists.

Car ownership 20 or so years from now will be for the privileged few. Those that either do not live in the city/metropolitan areas, or those that have access to space to store them and use them outside of these areas.

I think we are accelerating the pace of change. And unlike the last 100 years or so, the pace of change is not being driven by technology, instead, it is being driven by social change, with technology now moving to an "enabling role".

[KAS-118]

Just to make a point regarding the provision of Chargers where you do not have a parking space,  I should mention that more forward thinking Councils have already addressed this - for example, London is one of the very worse places to try and park. But Westminster Council have incorporated EV chargers into lamp posts. https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/24/siemens-brings-street-light-ev-charging-to-london-neighborhood/

There are also many other solutions to this problem https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/oct/05/electric-car-ways-to-charge

Indeed - I spend a lot of time working in other European countries - who have certainly embraced and/or are embracing the EV culture - and it never ceases to amaze me how some people in the UK are always saying things can't be done - when they are actually being done now. Frankly, as an English person, its embarrassing to be associated with such a  narrow minded and nethanderal outlook - its as though the luddites are in full swing again.

Further into the future there is of course wireless charging https://www.technologytimes.pk/2020/05/19/china-to-introduce-wireless-charging-for-electric-vehicles-ties-with-mit-startup-witricity/

Fortunately, despite the luddites, the British Government is actually trying to lead the way - in pushing ahead with EV adoption. So hopefully, at least, we can begin to lead the way in technology again. 

Of course this is a little way off but then I think its clear the ICE is certainly dead - so what's going to replace it?

Some people obviously say the private car is dead and we'll all be using public transport soon. Well, you can never say what the future holds - but I think that is way way off, if at all

I think the Coronavirus has made people very weary of public transport and, given the current social distancing, it is not particularly efficient. I think it should also be realised that Public Transport effectively takes you from somewhere you don't want to leave from - to somewhere you don't want to go to. 

 In more suburb and outer-city areas I very much doubt public transport is going to grow - at least not in terms of the percentage of the working population. 

Of course in city centres, like London, you do need public transport - but from the various webinars I attended both last week and this morning - the consensus seems to be more and more people want to work from home, adopting flexible working practices. Of course this isn't possible for everyone - but it certainly is for a significant portion.

So what you may get is people actually wanting to attend fairly close-bye shops or going on leisure trips - where it is possible to drive and park, and not a commute into work and city areas by public transport. 

Of course, like the theatre and cinema - the death of the motor car has previously been predicted - but its still very much here and (to date) in ever growing numbers.

Time will obviously tell - but in the foreseeable future - the Car is still  alive and kicking - and is likely to remain so for a good number of years to come.

Edited May 19, 2020 by KAS-118

[eUKenGB]

I think despite what we may want, in the long term, governments want to eliminate road injury and death. Whatever some campaigners may want others to believe, that can NEVER happen with humans actually in control of their vehicle. The only way to achieve that will mean replacing all cars with central computer controlled 'robo-taxis', in sufficient numbers to make them almost instantly available to everyone. It has to be the goal of every government. Not only actually making life safer, but they would be seen to be improving safety and being seen to be doing good is of course THE top priority for every politician (whether or not their actions have any actual effect).

Also very important, it gives them control. Call me a conspiracy theorist, but it is indisputable that governments want ever greater control of the population.

So yes, ultimately, I do believe that private vehicle ownership is doomed. However, it will be a fight as for so long we have had the independence of our own personal transportation (with its possibly customised personal space that goes with it). I suspect that won't be given up without a fight. But I think its eventual demise is inevitable, although not in our lifetime for sure.

Regarding an earlier part of this discussion. Here's some interesting stuff about battery re-cycling:-

https://youtu.be/Bpe8HalVXFU

[C8RKH]

I agree with you @eUKenGB in that it will be a fierce battle to get the masses to give up personal transportation but it is the older people like me who will fight the hardest. The demographics are already there, in the UK, to show that "young people" are not as wedded to their cars. There are fewer of them, statistically, buying cars. Less of them are taking their driving tests. The trend is clear.  Youngsters are also keen on urban living. They are more mobile and active but choose to use public transport, walking, cycling etc as their "first choice" of transport. Housing, food and social are where their money is going. It is not, generally speaking, going into cars.  Of course, everyone on here will know youngsters who love cars, but, err, that's the circles we live in.

So, the first battle ground will be our large cities and metropolitan areas and it will be pushed hard by the "Mayors" who will look to exert control and also to secure the increasingly influential votes of the more social/environmentally aware young voters. They are increasing noisy in their demands and increasingly influential. Also, roads take up a huge slice of LA funds and through re-purposing them for a more "socially acceptable" environment - cycling, walking etc - they will actually start to make significant reductions to their roads budgets that will be diverted elsewhere.

The basic building blocks are in place for visitors to our cities and larger towns through park and ride schemes. Increasingly those schemes will be linked with autonomous buses/trams to provide the transportation and with "no" cars to get in their way the city centres will be quieter, cleaner, lacking in congestion and pollution. It really is a strong proposition that will not go away easily.  More home working (our new post Covid normal) will require people to move around the cities less even further reducing the need for "personal" transportation.

To be honest, if the UK cities and her mayors really grasp this, it would put the UK at the forefront of progressive, integrated, transport thinking. Physically driving a car in a city will I predict be dead within 20 years.

[KAS-118]

@eUKenGB - thanks for another insightful post - clearly, despite what some people have said, recycling of EV Batteries will not be that difficult going forwards.

As to Private Car Ownership my observations would be that 'computer control/autonomous driving is not mutually exclusive. Indeed, look at Tesla - and we are not that far away from it now. But this is private vehicles. 

It isn't to far removed to consider WiFi network on roads that will control he speed if cars (private or otherwise) speed, make cars stops at junctions etc - although it also has to be accepted that the testing of this hasn't always ended up well. 

That is not to say you won't get Robotaxi's - indeed you can now https://www.abacusnews.com/tech/riders-shanghai-can-now-hail-robotaxi-alibabas-map-app/article/3081728 - but the fact that Taxi's have existed before the motor car, as has public transport -  but people still prefer the ability use their own transport where that is reasonably possible. 

So I have a different outlook to you in that respect. I can see 'big brother' controls being introduced - but these are just as likely to be on private cars as they are public taxi's. However, I'm optimistic we are quite someway off getting to that point.

For the sake of completeness I would also mention Public Transport - although you didn't really mention this - and I'm not presupposing what your view is on it.

As I said above, Public transport generally takes your from a place you don't want to depart from, to a place you don't want to go to - but you can also add to that it takes you at a time that you may not want to necessarily leave at, via a route you may not want to necessarily go and in the company of people you may not necessarily want to be with.

However, clearly in very densely populated areas, it has not always been possible to use a private car effectively. There may be no-where to park it, it may frequently get  vandalised or stolen - and when you get in it, at the time you may need to travel, the roads may be so busy that it would take you longer to drive somewhere than walk.

However, IF more people work from home, then not only does that mean there are less people in the city at anyone time - freeing up the roads - people can live further out in the suburbs, where private transport can be used. Even where people do need to travel into city areas - then flexible working may mean they do so at different time . The reason why public transport is usually the preferred method in inner city is because the roads are so choked. 

It is therefore bizarre if anyone thinks that less people moving around will necessitate more public transport and less personal transport - its likely to be the very opposite. 

Clearly public transport will still exist - but as we get used to working more to our own timetables - more people will move out of the inner cities and want a flexible form of transportation which is convenient for them, rather then sets a timetable, and location, that they need to comply with.

However, as I said - I think this is all going out of the timeframe originally envisaged by the original question. 

Edited May 19, 2020 by KAS-118

[Mysterae]

I'll give an example of a real life situation that happened the a colleague of mine. He drives a Nissan Leaf and has for years and loves it. But the battery has decayed so much that it's real world mileage is around 60 miles, depending on the driving conditions.

One day he forgot to charge it overnight. This could happen to anyone; distracted, family life,  things on your mind etc. He drove to work early in the cold morning fine, but on the journey back home later that's when it dawned on him he didn't have enough power to get him there. He stopped at a shop and kindly asked if he could have some power and would of course pay for it. The shopkeeper kindly obliged, but then he discovered that his 240v charging lead was plugged in at home.... So he had to call his wife, who had to pack up the kids (and the charger lead) in to her petrol powered car and drive to the rescue. Then he had to sit for over an hour to charge the car enough to get him home. A journey that should have taken 25 - 30 minutes took him over 3 hours. An extreme example I know but it shows you it's not as easy as stopping at the nearest petrol station.

Similarly, a journey we have both done frequently is Inverness to Glasgow, at around 150 miles. I can do that trip in around 3 to 3.5 hours depending on traffic. It takes him 5 to 6 hours because of 3 stops he has to make to recharge. I just don't have the patience for that! I could do two such round trips in my 600+ miles to the tank full diesel. 

I think it's fine charging at home but I just wouldn't want to charge for any length of time at a service station forecourt. I never buy service station fuel due to the price and when I do stop it's because I need a piss, a stretch of the legs and a fresh cup of coffee - then I'm on the road again. 

[Barrykearley]

3 hours ago, KAS-118 said:

despite what some people have said, recycling of EV Batteries will not be that difficult going forwards.

They say that about plastics......oh

[KAS-118]

@Mysterae - clearly your friends car is no longer fit for his needs.

I'm not sure how old it is - but I believe the leaf came out about 10 years ago and only had an EPA range of 73 miles.

Battery Technology has moved on a lot since then.

I agree that a car of that range, and for the journeys your friends has to do - is not appropriate. But the question was about the forthcoming ICE ban; and whether EV's were the answer. That suggests you looking at what is available now and whether i'ts suitable for most people most of the time. 

New EV's can now do 250-300 miles - so I think the tipping point probably has now been reached. However, when I last bought a car EV's were no-where on my list - I just didn't think they were suitable then. But jut because something was not suitable 10, or even 5, years ago - doesn't mean that they haven't been improved and are now suitable.

Is he thinking about replacing it - and if so with what? 

17 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

They say that about plastics......oh

Hmmm.....a lot of plastics are recyclable - and those that aren't are getting banned.

What do they say about the waste from fossil fuels - and the combustion thereof.......oh 🙄🙄🙄

Edited May 19, 2020 by KAS-118

[machine7]

27 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

They say that about plastics......oh

They say that about plastics at the moment. If https://www.myheru.com/ devices are installed in all homes and businesses, then plastics and all waste becomes an energy source. (And based in Worcester too👍).

[Mysterae]

@KAS-118 his current Leaf is fine for his under 40 miles round commute - unless he gets to the North Kessock bridge and finds it shut - then he has to go back home to charge some more! He'd love to replace his Leaf with a newer fresher model (he is quite pro-EV) but it's the cost of a replacement that's prohibitive to him, understandably.

I'd want 500+ range from an EV so I could do all but the most critical of charging at home at 12p per kWh or less with an overnight tariff. I don't want to be waiting around a forecourt for however long and paying 60p per kWh.

[Bibs]

Isn't that what PHEV's are for? Once battery energy density improves they'll just get better at being the best of both worlds for now. 

600 odd miles from a tank but for local runs, all on electric for about 25 miles which covers most daily short runs for most to schools/shops/work etc.  

 

[KAS-118]

@Mysterae - thanks for the info.

If I were your colleague then I’d wait for a couple of years (if he can put up with his current leaf) as I believe the cost of EV’s will be getting much more competitive with Petrol - even at the lower end of the market.

Likewise, if you need 500 miles, then there’s not an EV out there for you yet - so it’s either hold on to what you’ve got at the moment and review what’s available in 2 or 3 years - or buy another petrol.

Good luck in whatever you decide 👍

[KAS-118]

3 minutes ago, Bibs said:

Isn't that what PHEV's are for? Once battery energy density improves they'll just get better at being the best of both worlds for now. 

600 odd miles from a tank but for local runs, all on electric for about 25 miles which covers most daily short runs for most to schools/shops/work etc.  

 

Yes and no.

For an A-B car that does the journeys you describe they’re probably fine and may be the best option.

But you could  also say they’re the worst of both worlds - lugging around 2 propulsion systems - 1 of which is only being used, taking up more space - hence you don’t get the space savings you get in a BEV, nor do you lose having to go to a petrol station and fill up. 
 

If you’re doing a journey of 600 miles then that’s likely to be an 8-10 hour trip. Surely you’d stop off for 45 mins to an hour. If that were the case you could recharge an EV.

Like you suggest, I used to think hybrids were the perfect answer - but now I think they’re an unsatisfactory  compromise.

They will also be banned along with ICE’s - although obviously that’s a little way off.

For you and your described journey they may well work. But you might want to see if you can try a full EV out first as well, just to see how you get on?

47 minutes ago, machine7 said:

They say that about plastics at the moment. If https://www.myheru.com/ devices are installed in all homes and businesses, then plastics and all waste becomes an energy source. (And based in Worcester too👍).

Great information - thanks 👍

[Bibs]

13 minutes ago, KAS-118 said:

But you might want to see if you can try a full EV out first as well, just to see how you get on?

There's no point, it doesn't fit my journey profiles and I've not got the patience to spend more time that it takes to have a leak at a service station. Also, whenever I fill up I don't do a 600 mile journey, in fact I don't think I've ever driven that far in a day unless I'm on a trip to the 'Ring or similar in which case I'll be in the Evora every time.

I'm sure you can appreciate everyone uses their cars differently which is why there are so many different types, BEV's currently suit a very small amount of the market and that's that really. 

16 minutes ago, KAS-118 said:

lugging around 2 propulsion systems

I lug around 3 spares seats and a lot of unrequired metal at the moment most of the time. This isn't a new problem with the weight of most cars. 

[C8RKH]

I'm beginning to think there is no point to this thread, you can only have a real debate if all sides are truly open, and able, top really get into the detail. Too much stuff is discounted with broad brush statements (which I myself make too) rather than real consideration. It feels like at times looking in on a conversation between an atheist and a Vicar about Religion! Both are passionately assured that their view is the right view and neither will bend nor flex to meet the other.

I for one am not convinced that BEV's in their current form are the answer. And just to clarify a point that is raised over and over again - there is a difference between finding a "space" somewhere to park your car, often away from your home, and then using that justify that as you have "space" to park your car there is the space for a charger AND importantly you will able to access it.  The first two pictures make the point perfectly and the cars will be "shuffled" each day as people battle to park.  I'm struggling to understand why this concept seems hard to grasp. The problem is not just at home either, anyone who works on an edge of town "business park" will be familiar with the 3rd image, the irony here being that this is a Tesla car park- gosh, I hope no-one needed to recharge their battery!

This is an interesting link as I know links to prove points are well regarded: http://www.problemneighbours.co.uk/parking-disputes.html and as it points out there is "no automatic right to park outside of your house" on a public highway.

 

For those who dismissed my urban vision of car less streets, and a shift to mass autonomous and clean transportation and healthier alternatives such as walking and cycling, then I would strongly urge you to think again.

Societal change will and is dramatically reshaping our urban areas and the centres of our large towns and cities.  If you think about it, cars a huge indulgence. Just think about the physical space that a car takes up whether it is moving or stationary. To park 100 cars on a street, or in a car park takes up a huge amount of physical space in our most densely populated and packed areas. It is this space that is at a premium in these locations.  I live in the middle of nowhere on a large plot. I've got a garage that could accomodate four cars and all my other shite and outside my garage I can park and easily manoeuvre 5 more cars around.  No issues for me with parking, space, etc.  But I am not normal (you can say that again I hear you call). Again, look at the pictures above and truly convince me that space for parking and charging cars will not be an issue in our urban environments.

So the car is becoming a pariah in my circles. It is expensive to make (raw materials, consumption of energy etc). It pollutes the environment (even BEV's give off the damaging brake and tyre particulates). It takes us too much space.  For these reasons you can argue that personal cars and urban living are not compatible. Remember, although we have had an explosion of car ownership, we have also over the same period had a population explosion. So, in the 50's, few people, especially in our major towns and cities had a car, probably up to the early 70's.  When a household did have a car. It had one.  So the streets could cope. Congestion and pollution was tolerable. Etc.  However, over the past 30 years we have had an explosion is car ownership, driven by increased wealth, more affordability (cheap finance anyone) and population growth. So slowly, our streets have filled with moving cars. That increasingly have become log jammed cars. Surrounded on all sides by parked cars. In short, many of our streets in towns and cities are choked, filled to capacity. Space is very much at a premium.

Cars are filthy pollutants. They are also dangerous and people have accidents and die. So socially, cars are being seen as a problem. As a luxury people can do without. Etc.  Not many of us on here will share that view, but we will, with a little thought, recognise the tell tale signs through legislation, increased tariffs and charges, more closed roads to cars, etc. It has been suggested that the space within a large town or city can be as much as 40% occupied to service cars!  That's road space, parking spaces etc.  As our cities become ever dense, that space is at a premium, not just for housing, but also for recreation.  See, societal needs and wants are changing the way we think about space, and we use space. Laws and regulations are enabling the change. The car, as a private transport tool, is doomed in towns and cities.

An example of change that is coming:

San Francisco has an audacious plan to reclaim land from cars

An illustration from San Francisco’s Smart City proposal. On the left are streets currently occupied by cars and street parking. By shifting to shared, autonomous vehicles, much more area could be reclaimed for parks and housing

More info on this here: https://www.vox.com/a/new-economy-future/cars-cities-technologies

More interesting reading is here:

https://www.citylab.com/perspective/2019/12/car-free-streets-plans-sf-market-street-new-york-europe-us/603391/

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20191011-what-happens-when-a-city-bans-car-from-its-streets

https://www.citymetric.com/transport/four-possible-visions-future-public-transport-4907

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20130617-moving-around-in-the-megacity

I'm a car nut, like many on here. But the writing is on the wall. Change will happen the fastest in our large towns and cities. London is a case in point where year on year it is becoming increasingly difficult, and expensive, to move around, use and park, a private car. I'm not sure that anyone who drives a car in London would ever these days call it a hobby, fun or enjoyable. Anyone hear disagree?

Finally, consider people who live and work in our large towns and cities. Increasingly, they are being drawn to, and in many cases demanding, environments like this (spot the car!). The urban design is about social. Families. Leisure. The return to nature / natural environments and roads for cars, just do not feature.

 

So in conclusion. I do not think BEV's are the future. They are a transient step to the future and their appeal, well, we need to wait and see. The cost of the infrastructure upgrades to support them is huge. Is it justified? Will the new normal present the opportunity for progress to move faster and make the cars (for use in the city) redundant and so the biggest use case itself, to support BEV's, then disappears?  No doubt this post will be discounted as being negative and proof that I am a laggard to technology as I clear do not worship at the altar of BEV's. However, maybe that is the view of the atheist and mine the view of the Vicar. After all I'd hate to turn up at Peter's gates in a BEV

 

[KAS-118]

Hmmm...just to clarify.

1) If all (or a significant portion) of  Parking bays are all provided with Chargers - then it doesn't matter which bay you park in - as you can charge from it. Why is this so hard to grasp?

2) The fact you may not be able to park outside your home - doesn't matter if the space where you do find a place to park has a charging point. I'm not clear why that's so hard to grasp? This is what a street in Westminster effectively did. Indeed in Wales are looking to ensure provision is made for them in all new housing developments. https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/transport-electric-cars-wales-charging-18273796 

There seems to be a misconception that a Charger in the street outside your home is 'your charger' - it isn't - its a public charger what others can use. Likewise, you can use Public Chargers outside other properties. What you can't do is use someone's private charger. 

In respect as to how inner cities will develop, I'm sure they will become even more 'car less' - but that doesn't necessary mean there will be less cars in the country as a whole - as the ability to work remotely will mean people can move to the suburbs and even further out where cars can and will be used. Indeed, I was reading to day there's a renewed interest to have 2nd Homes in the Country https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lockdown-prompts-surge-of-interest-in-moving-to-the-countryside-k98hh6ckz . People are likely to use cars to get to these. 

For example, one of the offices I work in is at London Bridge - and I've been going there for 10 years. I've never once driven there by car. However, I still need a car for when I go out on social and/or leisure purposes. 

I think remote working will ease the strain on public transport - as you won't get the surge of people travelling to or from work. But, when they need to go to the shops or days out, they will still (mainly) prefer to go by their own cars.

So I believe private transport ownership is likely to stay for the foreseeable future. 

 

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by KAS-118

[KAS-118]

I attended the Polestar 2 Webinar just now. 

I must say I think, as an everyday car, its quite impressive and a very disirable alternative to a Tesla 3. I think if this is what Polestar can produce under Geely, the future is very good for Lotus.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XciHY1cKhzE&feature=youtu.be

Maybe the Precept is a glimpse of something that could come out from Lotus (scaled down a bit of course)?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4MRqNDMsIQ

Edited May 20, 2020 by KAS-118

[Neal H]

So in conclusion. Electric motorbikes are the future of personal transportation.

I agree this thread seems to have become rather pointless as it’s a bit like debating politics or religion (both subjects to be avoided), opinions are Usually so entrenched that alternative views are dismissed out of hand.

[C8RKH]

Totally agree @Neal H. But it will be electric cycles and scooters, not motorbikes! 

[scotty435]

Close the the thread down because some don’t like the questions and answers that a honest debate can bring to the table. Surely that’s not how democracy works?

[C8RKH]

Who wants to close it down? I need something to entertain me whilst I'm eating my peanuts with a nice claret! Carry on as normal, all OK here....

 

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

It’s got to be THE most tedious thread on here. Same few posters only. No-one else is interested. It’s difficult to avoid, since they post so regularly, meaning that it’s always near the top of the thread list.

Anyway, just my opinion, so I’ll keep well out of it from now on, unless someone on here buys an Evija.