Scottish Independence

[SFO]

I think the desire for independence is due to the believe that Westminster is the reason for Scotland’s ills; all as incessantly espoused by Sturgeon.
 

On top of that, once freed the shackles of the UK, Scotland will be able to achieve its true potential. Damned if I know what those shackles actually are.

[C8RKH]

32 minutes ago, Bibs said:

I'm sure they'd miss the £32bn annual Barnett money too. 

And a significant proportion of that is Westminster returning to Scotland the share of the UK Government tax take by population. It's a little disingenuous to suggest the "subsidy" or the shortfall is that full £32bn. It is not. Public sector revenue in Scotland (so cash collected through tax, NICs, VAT etc) was £54bn in 2019. So that's total money in. So you could argue the other way and say the rUk would miss that £54bn! However, you cannot say that that means that Scotland is in surplus of £22bn. Don't you just love stats, figures etc. You can manipulate them to say pretty much whatever you want. However, it is fair to say that Scotland is a net receiver in the UK. In fact, all the devolved regions are net receivers, only England is a net contributor. 

Let's try to keep a bit of balance

[Bibs]

I was under the impression that that figure was before adjustments for devolved taxation...

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/barnett-formula#:~:text=In 2019%2F20%2C the Barnett,public services in each nation.

[C8RKH]

No, the formula is based on spend across "some" areas not all. I can assure that England is subsidising Scotland but I am pretty sure it is not to the tune of £32bn per year! It's actually a subsidy of around £3.2bn per year.  Not an insignificant sum, but not the in the realms of fantasy land like £32bn. That £3.2bn also assumes Scotland takes it's 1.9% of GDP share of the UK defence budget. An Independent Scotland could of course decide to spend nothing on defence, but, they will lose income from defence contracts as there is no way the rUK will pay "Scottish" firms to build UK weapons (ships etc). So that will be large revenues losses and probably job losses too.

 

[williamtherebel]

4 hours ago, red vtec said:

Let them go, they can pay for their own defence, healthcare etc. They have no business as the oil is drying up and they have sod all else apart from tourism (that's working well at the current time) There is only so much Shortcake and whiskey you can flog.

Just to be clear, ----  whiskey is Irish. Whisky is Scottish.  

[C8RKH]

2 hours ago, williamtherebel said:

Just to be clear, ----  whiskey is Irish. Whisky is Scottish.  

Well, if your are in the US and Ireland it is Whiskey. If in Canada, India, Japan and Scotland it is Whisky.

 

 

[Barrykearley]

When Scotland become independent let’s hope all the asylum seekers get to Dover and head North 🙌

[theelanman]

I think we should provide free buses, planes and trains to Gretna from anywhere on the south coast....

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[Neal H]

What are they going to do about currency? You can't have an independent country without an independent economy.

They seem to insist they are going to keep the UK Pound, but that would mean they remain effectively under Westminster control.

[SFO]

1 minute ago, Neal H said:

They seem to insist they are going to keep the UK Pound, but that would mean they remain effectively under Westminster control.

like Zimbabwe using US$ 😂😂

[Mark030358]

Perhaps then I can have ENGLISH on my passport... and when I fill in a census form I can also use ENGLISH, which you can't do at present.

[910Esprit]

36 minutes ago, Neal H said:

What are they going to do about currency? You can't have an independent country without an independent economy.

Although the SNP referrendum pitch is to use the Pound (Bank of England....) in the short term, then fanciful suggestions around a Scottish currency.   The reality would be that membership of the Eurozone would be mandated.  The EU would be able to dictate all terms and conditions.  The SNP would have zero leverage.       

[Neal H]

I always assumed that Scotland would want to join the EU and adopt the Euro, but would the EU want them as they’ll be another net drain on its budget and Spain would probably veto it anyway as they wouldn’t want a precedent set for Catalonia.

[Bibs]

Does Scotland fit the criteria for EU membership?

[C8RKH]

3 hours ago, Neal H said:

You can't have an independent country without an independent economy.

Actually you can. But I understand your point.  

 

3 hours ago, Mark030358 said:

Perhaps then I can have ENGLISH on my passport... and when I fill in a census form I can also use ENGLISH, which you can't do at present.

You won't. It will say British or UK as you won't have a different passport for England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

 

1 hour ago, Neal H said:

I always assumed that Scotland would want to join the EU and adopt the Euro, but would the EU want them as they’ll be another net drain on its budget and Spain would probably veto it anyway as they wouldn’t want a precedent set for Catalonia.

The SNP wants to take Scotland back into the EU. They are correct. And this is why the SNP needs to be very careful to make sure that it has a lawful mandate for the Independence Referendum and therefore the result is recognised in International Law.  No mandate, no international recognition, no membership to the EU. This is simply because Spain, Italy, France and others will "block" membership as it sends a signal to the separatists in their own country that a non legal referendum will allow them to split and join - e.g. a la Catalan tried to do.

 

1 hour ago, Bibs said:

Does Scotland fit the criteria for EU membership?

No. Currently Scotland would not qualify for membership and would need a significant period of time to "prepare" to enter the process. The UK, including Scotland has already "left" the EU so unlike last time (when the UK was still a part of the EU) if Scotland gains independence it will become an Independent nation "outside" the EU. Therefore it will need to apply to join and will subject to the same scrutiny, rules and process for membership as everyone else. It will also be at the back of the queue starting a lengthy process.    The interesting thing is that Brexit really has changed the goal posts and indeed the game for an independent Scotland.  Key questions now raised would be:

1. How long will it take an Independent Scotland to sort out it's debt and finances to the point that it will meet the criteria to join the EU and convert to the Euro?

2. What will happen to Scotland's trade upon Independence? It will need to negotiate it's own trade deal with the EU (good luck with that!) and arguably a trade deal with it's biggest export market, the rUK (good luck with that).

3. Until it get's membership of the EU, Scotland will use the GB£ but it will have no say, control or authority, over the rUK's currency policies and strategies and will have to adapt to cope with the impacts of a third party currency decisions on its own economy

4. What will be the settlement for separation?  The SNP has already stated that Scotland would take it's fair share of the UK debt (which it would roughly assume I am sure as c. 8%) however, given that the deficit in Scotland is an order of magnitude more than in in rUK we could find ourselves taking a much higher proportion, say 12%, that would prove to be quite some burden on our coffers and ability to borrow more. But then there is the "reckoning" of assets that the UK has built/invested on in Scotland. What proportion of those Assets would remain as "Scottish" and what would be the cost of those assets and how will they be paid for (there will need to be a process of netting off assets/liabilities etc between Scotland and rUK).

5. Once Scotland joins the EU, her currency will change to the Euro, she will be a member of Shengen. So, currency, trade, borders and freedom of movement will all affect Scotland's relationship with the rUK. Border patrols and formal crossings (please don't laugh this off anyone, it will have to happen - just look at the hoo haa right now between NI and Eire due to Brexit and rUk will be even tougher on Scotland due to the land, not sea border) with passport checks.  I really don't think people have thought this through and just think meh, will never happen.  They are totally wrong.

6. What happens to thousands of workers like me - work for a foreign company/UK company registered in rUK but live in Scotland.  Massive issues re travel and also pay, tax, regulation, legislation, etc.  Again, I really don't think this is being considered.

7. Crisis Three - We have the financial crisis. The UK got through it together. We have COVID. The UK is getting through it together. Whatever #3 is, how will Scotland survive without outside help as we could be independent and not a part of the EU.

 

There are some real questions that need to be asked. That are never asked though. And the when they are skimmed over, we just get the usual Bull Shit responses - i.e. told nothing of any substance just usual fairy stories

[Mark030358]

18 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

ou won't. It will say British or UK as you won't have a different passport for England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

But can I put English as my ethnicity on the next census, as currently we can't.... personally I hope it never happens   

[Neal H]

I also personally hope it never happens as I think the U.K. is stronger together. However, I don’t think Westminster should stand in the way if it’s what the people of Scotland want - frankly, SNP politicians in Westminster work solely to try and undermine the U.K. and that isn’t acceptable.

Scotland are a net drain on the U.K. so if they want to leave, they should be welcome to do so.

[Barrykearley]

I’m wondering when us English can have a vote on independence 

[C8RKH]

51 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

I’m wondering when us English can have a vote on independence 

Stop your whinging @Barrykearley and get some more chicken sheds wired up and your VAT, NICS and taxes paid!

You need to work harder as Queenie has now decided that all families on family credit are getting a £100 xmas pressie, all kids are getting free breakfasts and lunches whether the schools are in or out, and all front line health and care staff are getting a £500 Queen Nickie Bonus for xmas too. Some bugger needs to pay for it so that'll be you Barry. Cheers bud. You're welcome.

[Barrykearley]

I’m on it @C8RKH 🙃

[C8RKH]

I could set my Scalextric up in there @Barrykearley

[Barrykearley]

With a full size vx220 @C8RKH 👌

[pete]

 

[SFO]

 

I really enjoyed this .. SNP exposed for the charlatans that they are

[SFO]

we need Ruth Davidson back playing an active and prominent role in Scottish politics

https://www.scottishparliament.tv/meeting/debate-trade-and-co-operation-agreement-between-the-united-kingdom-and-the-european-union-december-30-2020?clip_start=13:43:59&clip_end=13:54:59