Future of Lotus

[NedaSay]

2 hours ago, Andyww said:

Its true that it didnt work for Lotus but that was because the team was not successful, not because of racing a brand.

Racing the brand works very well for Mercedes. They bought the Brawn team and Ilmor Engines and renamed them, to great effect. 

Uh comparing Lotus to Mercedes, at this point in time is definitely not something I would do. The order of magnitude between both companies makes it hard for me to even contemplate doing such a thing. Mercedes sold over 1.5 M cars last year and they've been selling over 1M cars per annum for quite a number of years now. Lotus has sold  just over 1500 cars last year. Mercedes Benz is part of Daimler Group which can only be described as a behemoth. Lotus belonged until very recently to a company that itself was on the brink of disaster.

Mercedes today can stomach the reported $400M annual budget required by their primadona of a team, mostly because they keep winning but also because some of their sponsors will help them foot the bill - the Petronas deal alone is worth around $40M, UBS, Qualcomm and the others are reported to pay between 5 and 20m a year to feature on the silver arrows. Mercedes AMG also bills Williams and Force India $26M each for their engine. All in all they earned over 300M in 2016 and that doesn't even factor the TV viewership... 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/csylt/2016/10/01/mercedes-races-to-record-320-million-f1-revenue/#44cd1484591d 

By comparison Lotus just got acquired by Geely and Geely now needs to retool and probably refinance the company and provide the cash to develop not only the next business plan but more than probably the one after that. If the plan is to get a SUV, a halo car, and to replace cost effectively Elise, Exige and Evora within the next 7 years... I think it will cost them no less than a cool billion and change to do so.  They can probably do it for less by maximizing synergies  and economies of scale but we are still speaking of a fully global 5 models line up. Even if it is just a reskin of the XC40 the SUV won't be done for cheap, even if Elise, Exige, Evora and Esprit do share the upcoming sport car chassis it won't come for cheap. 

That's why I think the GTE in FIA WEC is a more realistic option for the foreseeable future. They can do it now or very soon, they can get a small team of engineers and technicians at the factory, they have a suitable if aging chassis available and eligible, and they can easily activate that program on their key markets. 

[NedaSay]

Oh and the JV with Goldstar is now history. Took them long enough!  

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/drbhicom-terminates-jv-goldstar-produce-lotus-cars-china

I''d really like Geely to clean up the mess in the Lotus holding structure and possibly the Youngstar Lotus branding in China.

Edited January 24, 2018 by NedaSay

[TBD]

Geely seems to have a clear plan to build a successful group in which each brand has its place. Obviously EV's play a big role in their strategy, considering China's drive for electric vehicles. What better way is there for Geely to build market recognition for the group than to go racing in the series that promotes EV's? Obviously it would be Geely endeavour to enter Formula E, but it would be foolisch to not use the Lotus heritage for that.

We have to overcome seeing Lotus as a stand alone operation, they are now part of a fast growing and forming group in which they will play a specific role deemed strategic by Geely. The Lotus SUV will surely also be sold with a Polestar (or Volvo) badge and JMG has already said it likely won't be built in Hethel. 

[KAS-118]

Well last June/July time there was a rumoured Chinese team entering F1 and I recall Christine Horner saying that they had tried to poach some of Red Bull's people - so you never know....

 

https://www.unracedf1.com/china-f1-racing-team-limited/

[nerobi]

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/spy-shots/ferrari/ferrari-suv-2020-pictures-interior-specs-price-and-performance-of-f16x-fuv-crossover/

[Mark Blanchard]

34 minutes ago, nerobi said:

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/spy-shots/ferrari/ferrari-suv-2020-pictures-interior-specs-price-and-performance-of-f16x-fuv-crossover/

Wow that looks shite.  So depressing everyone's doing SUVs.

 

 

[NedaSay]

Uh they should have just slapped 2 extra doors on the GTC Lusso and called it a day. This looks very meehhh and lets not kid ourselves there's no room at the back for 4 pairs of skis. The Lotus crossover looks more convincing.  

Edited January 27, 2018 by NedaSay

[NedaSay]

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/lotus/lotus-ceo-reveals-roadmap-two-new-sports-cars-coming-in-2020-suv-by-2022/

So a carbon fiber car... I assume front and rear sub frames will be aluminium... That car will prop Lotus in the higher echelons of the sports car market. Should I say an Esprit second coming even if it is not an Esprit but some thing quite like it or Lotus X-Eleven possibly with a roof.

If they use a carbon fiber tub and a 4 cyl, this car should be below 1000kg. If it is above Evora in performance it should be in the 500+bhp range. 

I wonder if Lotus and Geely have assembled a skunk team working on the Geely V6 or if Lotus and Polestar are going to go all in on the Drive E with triple boost... A crazy third option would be Lotus asking Volvo, Polestar and Yamaha to build a limited batch of an updated old Volvo V8 that was used in V8 Supercars until last year. But this is only me talking crazy...

One thing is for sure, a carbon tub means eyes watering price, only accessible to the 1%....Ok maybe not but you better have rocking credit if you want to finance that car.

If the over car is an evolution of a current model it has to be Evora based cause the small platform is not able to go global,  the Elige platform as it is now has reached the end of the line. If we read the lines of the piece, the Elise replacement is not a priority anymore unless they bring the cost down because margins aren't high enough... Funny thing is with the parts bin they have now, they can definitely bring the cost structure way down. But I guess they need to get much bigger margins so Exige or Evora come first...  So an Evora based Exige or a brand new Evora. An  Exige replacement on a heavily tweaked VVA platform would make sense so would an Evora. An Evora mark 2 with Volvo cabin tech and a potent engine would give people looking at F-type, AMG GT and 911 some very first world problems. 

No wonder they brought the Exige Cup 430... if the Exige is the first car to be replaced they may just as well send it into the sunset with the loudest engine now... 

 

Edited January 28, 2018 by NedaSay

[Ccd]

A leasing/finance arm in the USA would certainly help, but Lotus has more fundamental challenges, at least in the USA.  The dealership network is just too limited and it will be hard to expand the network in the USA with just one street legal model.  You also have a plant with max production of around 3000 cars.   Given this scenario, I’d replace the Evora and add a halo car above the Evora.  

The reasons are simple: more expensive cars have higher profit margins.  The Evora could benefit greatly from more refinement in order to compete with the likes of Porsche (911), Jag (F-Type) and Mercedes (GT-S).  As shown by those car makers, you can iterate the hell out of one model (and Lotus isn’t too bad at that part already).  The you place a halo car above the Evora to establish Lotus’ identity.  This will be (at minimum) a $200,000 car.  The whole point here is to establish Lotus’ position in the market as a premium car maker at a much higher price point than the current models.  The goal?  To at least break even on the sports cars and establish a premium place in the market for the SUV where the real money will be made.

Where does this leave the Elise/Exige?  In the short run, continuing with no major changes.  Better margins are to be had elsewhere.  Longer term, the Elise/Exige might be replaced by one model, but I wouldn’t bet on that.  

Bottom line:  the current line of Lotus car are probably the last of the “raw” cars where you have to option in things like cupholders, radio or A/C.  And, in general, they will be bargains compared to what is coming next.  

[Loquacious Lew]

I

On 1/28/2018 at 09:21, Ccd said:

A leasing/finance arm in the USA would certainly help, but Lotus has more fundamental challenges, at least in the USA.  The dealership network is just too limited and it will be hard to expand the network in the USA with just one street legal model.  You also have a plant with max production of around 3000 cars.   Given this scenario, I’d replace the Evora and add a halo car above the Evora. ........

Bottom line:  the current line of Lotus car are probably the last of the “raw” cars where you have to option in things like cupholders, radio or A/C.  And, in general, they will be bargains compared to what is coming next.  

I've thought for some time that the Evora will very possibly sail into the sunset as the last of the traditional Lotuses and perhaps be better appreciated when it's no longer available since analog cars are curiously both in vogue and in short supply.

 But I'm not sure that Lotus wouldn't do just as well to introduce a car that undercuts the Cayman/Boxster line in price while yielding equal or better performance.  Or at least offer similar features and appeal at the same price.  Or perhaps even offer both a truly aspirational car to compete with higher end 911s and the like as well as an affordable sports car that is a vehicle one could move to from a Miata or a BRZ and still feel they didn't make an irrational/emotional choice compared to buying one of the competitors offerings.  They need a line, not just a car.  Add the SUV into the mix along with  low/high options in sporting cars and you'd have something a dealer and the market could sink their teeth into.  As much as I would like to see continuation models of the current Evora for my own selfish reasons, the reality is that raw cars only appeal to apex enthusiasts, so we agree there.  But as regards positioning, they have to focus on a range rather than a single model.  Surely a real plan for success must encompass that sort of thinking.  As soon as one opts to play in the sports car market,  the appeal of any vehicle is automatically capped.  Even 911s, surely the most popular premium sports car on the market only sold 8900 total in the USA in 2017.  LINK  Miata sales are depressed as well, although well up from their dismal levels of the last few.  LINK  The BRZ is another example of a car that holds a lot of appeal but renders paltry results. LINK  Any future plans must include range expansion beyond simply creating a halo car they sell 15 of in the USA.  Much as Bahar injured the company, his instinctive intent to make a splash was probably not incorrect.  Just woefully unrealistic and poorly timed.   

In order to be successful as other than an asterisk, Lotus needs a line of full featured modern cars to make a an  impact in our market.  Whatever happens, I don't regret my purchase of a 400 although it's getting clear that those of us who do buy a new one here in the states have to plan on holding them for the duration if we don't hope to take a bath at resale time.  Most American buyers are infatuated by numbers (0-60, quarter mile, horsepower,) and features.   Keyless entry, air conditioned seats, blind spot monitoring, these things are what moves buyers  to reach for wallets.  Future Lotuses will need to be competitive in all these areas.  They'll need to kick you in the ass as they simultaneously cool it and gently spray perfumed aroma therapies in your face.  Well, maybe not the aroma therapy part, but you get the gist. Lotus needs to be more things to more people.  There's no future in being our darling.  There aren't enough of us.  

[Ccd]

Totally agree that Lotus needs a full line of cars for the US market.  Having just one car (the Evora) limits their ability to expand their dealership in the States and means that dealers are likely mainly selling something else primarily and Lotus is an after thought.   

I see no evidence that Lotus is going to aggressively push into the US market until the new models are introduced, unfortunately.

[Sport220]

I wonder what all these news mean for the Elise S4, have the original plans for 2020 been canned and replaced by a new, more upmarket model with a different name?

I am looking forward to Lotus being back as a prosperous company with a new range of cars, but I also hope they will still have an inexpensive (sub 45k) 4 cylinder sports car, like the Elise but a bit more daily driver friendly and that they can sell in the US. 

One other thing I'd like is a return to motorsport, a great opportunity to gain brand and model awareness, maybe in the GT categories. A works GT LM team racing in the WEC would be brilliant.

 

 

[Ccd]

A look at USA sales of the 4C might be instructive.  First full year after introduction was around 660.  Next year, a little less than 500.  Last year, around 400.   Now would you develop a car for a market like that?  The 4C is probably the closest car in the US market to the Elise in terms of size and likely price.

[KAS-118]

12 minutes ago, Ccd said:

A look at USA sales of the 4C might be instructive.  First full year after introduction was around 660.  Next year, a little less than 500.  Last year, around 400.   Now would you develop a car for a market like that?  The 4C is probably the closest car in the US market to the Elise in terms of size and likely price.

But to be fair the Alfa 4C is expensive (IMHO) for what it is. The Maxda MX5 http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/mazda/mazda-mx-5-miata/ seems to do a lot better and the Flat 124 also seems to be picking up http://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-data/fiat/fiat-124-spider/ although I do note that the small sports car section has declined significantly in the states in the 3rd Quarter of 2017. 

I personally think a cheep'ish sports car does have a place in the market - and I can't help but wonder how long the European fad in SUV's will last 

[NedaSay]

3 hours ago, Sport220 said:

I wonder what all these news mean for the Elise S4, have the original plans for 2020 been canned and replaced by a new, more upmarket model with a different name?

I am looking forward to Lotus being back as a prosperous company with a new range of cars, but I also hope they will still have an inexpensive (sub 45k) 4 cylinder sports car, like the Elise but a bit more daily driver friendly and that they can sell in the US. 

One other thing I'd like is a return to motorsport, a great opportunity to gain brand and model awareness, maybe in the GT categories. A works GT LM team racing in the WEC would be brilliant.

To answer @ccd I think the 4C is way overpriced and just not good enough. It is just my opinion, but I can't believe they want to sell this car at this price, carbon fiber tub or not. 

I think the Elise - if they position its replacement the same way - won't earn the company enough money so a slight push upmarket may be necessary.  However I think Lotus now has the backing to get something that can compete with the Porsche Boxster/Cayman, the Alpine A110 and the Alfa 4C ; cost effectively by optimizing/maximizing the use of the Geely parts bin. Still I think the days of the car being sold at 32-35k in base version are history. The car will compete toe to toe with the Alpine and the Porsche hence will be close in price so 50K.

Except if the announced new VVA based car ends up being the new Exige. If that car uses Volvo/Geely's 4cyl powertrain it will occupy that very segment.  The Elise moniker would then need to be repositioned or shelved for a while.

Regardless i think Lotus will be provided with a full range of sport cars from entry level to very high end so as to maximise the return for the owners. The should also get the required number of SUV and an all electric luxobarge at some point. 

I think we all want a return to motorsport, I want to believe it will happen but they may want to do it once of the new product is on the market so we may have to wait until 2020 and the refurbishement of the factory 

Edited January 29, 2018 by NedaSay

[Loquacious Lew]

2 hours ago, Ccd said:

A look at USA sales of the 4C might be instructive.  First full year after introduction was around 660.  Next year, a little less than 500.  Last year, around 400.   Now would you develop a car for a market like that?  The 4C is probably the closest car in the US market to the Elise in terms of size and likely price.

 Lotus would  probably be happy with  those numbers for the Evora 400 but your point is well taken.

I 'm not sure the 4C is particularly will suited  to compete in the US market.    I suspect the Evora, or an Evora-like car has a better chance but Lotus can't keep making the same mistakes here and of course, they need to actually take it to market.  It will not be cheap to establish Lotus as a viable brand in the USA.  I hope they are ready for what it will take.  The Elise isn't (and maybe never was) a mass market sports car, even if the formula worked well enough at the time it was first brought here.   I think it's fair to say the same thing of the 4C, which leads one to conclude that any new car coming here that hopes to sell in thousands rather than hundreds of units needs to be able to stand toe to toe against Porsche, Mercedes, Jaguar, Audi and Corvette...... not just Alfa. Feature for feature, build for build.   The current Elise, Exige and Evora don't do that and neither does the 4C.  Much as they may be proper choices for those of  us who appreciate them for what they are, we are clearly in a minority.  I  had to struggle not to buy a 911 and in the process had to give up a lot of the things I thought I wanted.  There just aren't a lot of folks who will write the check for that.  

Of course, none of the things that stand against these cars , and especially as in my case, the 400,  are connected to the driving experience.  We  know what the missing elements are so it's not fruitful  to go over them again. For most people a $90-100K the car needs to come with everything.    Geely offers that potential for Lotus . We should not be surprised much by change.  Any new  Lotus should adhere to the original philosophy of responsive, fun  handling and feel, efficiency, proper speed and power and be faster than stink but it needs to look like money.  It needs  technology and interior refinement  that isn't in the cars we have today.  They will have to  incorporate  every benefit of modern construction, engineering  and technology and corporate buying power.  However remarkable and special  it may be, few indeed care if a car is handmade if  that also means getting fewer features and  less refinement.  

[Suddabym]

Great news.  Looks to me like the Elise will stay, with a few upgrades, but as a basic sports car.  Great for the U.K. and Japanese markets. The new car will replace the Exige, as a platform in its own right.  The marketing of the Exige recently would seem to support that. Then, a new 411 as a limited run of high end exclusive test bed cars for the direction of travel for future cars.  I don’t see the Evora going anywhere.  It’s a really solid mid level sports car now, so why get rid, especially as a roadster version would inject a new sales cycle.  So, Lotus could end up with 5 cars - 1.6l Elise, stand-alone Exige, Evora, limited run 411and SUV.

 

Boom!

[Suddabym]

Actually, thinking about it, the Elise is more likely to be a 1.0 to 1.4l.  All the investment is done, just plop in a tiny Volvo engine and you have a great little sports car.

[The Pits]

Just copying what everyone else is doing shows a stunning lack of imagination.

Lotus could shift much bigger numbers, easily double the current 1600 cars per year with an investment in intelligent marketing. I stress intelligent because bland, expected, cliched marketing is a total waste of money because it's invisible. The market for the Elise in particular is much bigger than it may appear. It's the perfect antidote to the SUV, numb, heavyweight hybrid and unuseable supercar for starters. After an SUV the qualities of the Elise shine even more brightly. Sales have flatlined because the hardcore Lotus fanbase have been keeping Lotus ticking over and most of us have already had (or have) an Elise. There's nothing wrong with the current car, Lotus could remake and sell the S1 Elise if it was promoted properly. They need to reach new customers. There are many people out there who'd love an Elise if they drove one, the challenge is to get them to do that. Elise is now an iconic sports car much like the Seven which is still selling well in Caterham form. Caterham tried modernising the idea several times, each one failed. Buyers who want a Caterham want a Caterham. The same goes for the Elise. Back when the Elise was selling strongly, Caterham tried to make something more like it (the 21). It was a good car but it bombed. As will a new Elise that's a Boxster clone. Why have an imitation when you can have the real thing? The only reason to buy a Lotus at the moment is because they offer something the mainstream manufacturers can't offer. Something more pure, more bold, more analogue, more raw.

I have to believe that some investment in marketing could change things pretty dramatically. We always blame the cars for not appealing to enough people but the greatest car on earth that nobody's ever heard of can't sell in numbers. There must be at least 5% of Boxster and Cayman owners who'd rather have an Elise or Exige if only they tried one. That leaves 95% perfectly happy with their better all rounder. But those wishing for something more intense and alive I'm sure would prefer the Lotus alternative. 5% would be worth nearly the current production total just in Elises, far closer to where they should be. Then you target people who are stuck with an SUV in the week and want something that's the exact opposite for the weekends.

[KAS-118]

This shows the production figures from 1973 to 2014 (sorry I haven't checked them for accuracy) and it makes quire interesting reading. 

http://raycee1234.blogspot.co.uk/2015/07/lotus-production-by-model-1980-2014.html

The Elise seems to be by far the top-seller but was certainly on a sales decline - perhaps a 're-launch' as a new Elan would see the return to more significant sales?

I'm probably going to be blasted for this - but if they could invest in a  new Elan, and make it scaleable so you could get a 2 seater and a +2 version version, suitable for getting a teenager in the back, as well - and could get it priced from about £40-45k,  I'd buy one tomorrow. If this (the 2 variants) could be done (and yes, I accept its a big IF) then that would surely help with the sales to development costs ratio?

I'm sure I'm not the only person in the world who commutes on public transport during the week but needs a car for going out as a family but doesn't need a lot of space. My current car that I bought new in November 2011 has only done 10k miles - so there's no-way I would consider getting 2 cars (my wife dosen't drive). 

 

[Ccd]

Pitts:

I can only speak for the USA market, but marketing would not sell the current Elise.  It is just too raw.  Lotus would need a re-designed Elise and I seriously doubt that sales would justify the investment, even with intelligent marketing.  

[The Pits]

Bet you ten bucks it would, if it was any good.

The Miata's success was almost totally down to marketing surely? Who'd bet on a tiny japanese toy car in the land of bigger=better? Somebody convinced Americans that they needed a simple, small roadster, it wasn't built in response to some huge demand. Porsche's brand in the US was built off the back of many years of consistently smart, compelling, persuasive advertising.

The Elise isn't raw compared to a motorcycle and they sell plenty of those in the US. Someone over there invented the Beach Buggy. Hot Rods, custom cars, there is demand for more raw cars over there as there is here. Might only be a small percentage of the population but that's OK, Lotus doesn't have to appeal to everyone, nor should they. I'm only claiming that Lotus could sell many more of the current range than they do. Current sales are based on zero promotion which immediately restricts them to existing buyers and people who read a lot of car magazines.

The idea of a new Elan has been around for a while but it's irresistable. I'd love to see what they'd do with a front engined rear drive chassis, could be a huge hit but I fear all the money has already gone into an SUV. The sad but true fact is that sports cars are in steady decline as are sports bikes. SUVs and adventure bikes are growing fast. I still don't really know why but the numbers are inescapable.

[silverfrost]

If lotus had produced the concept cars of the Danny Bahar era,   It would of either made or broke lotus,  personally think those concepts captured the lotus ethos

really well,   I think lotus needs another model,   and hit me with a stick if you do not agree as i have necver owned the newer model lotus, but to me the elise is a weekend car, the evora may be a bit to fancy for some folks even if it is 2 plus 2.     I think lotus needs a happy medium, a new look,  The elan, elite and elise concepts had a fresh and powerfull look imo.    One of these designs at least should of made it into production 

2010 elise 

2010 elan 

2010 elite ... lovely design 

And the failed esprit, which to be honest  just looks like a lambo, which is not a good thing.......  pleased this got canned 

The elite, elan and new elise design would of been warmly welcomed imo,  great looking cars that sadly never made production, such a shame. 

 

 

[Bravo73]

Ah. The ‘Future of Lotus’ and someone thinks that ‘Bahar’ is the answer. ? 

At least he had the marketing angle covered. 

[silverfrost]

Yes Danny era  was bad money wise for lotus,  but the brand moved up, and these concepts got created which was one good thing to come out of the the whole bad Bahar thing.