Brexit

[Paul Coleman]

Having just watched Nicola Sturgeon this morning debating the options to keep Scotland in the EU I'm wondering about a few things... why was Scotland so in favour of staying in the EU given the majority of England was in favour of leaving? I realise the leave vote was only 4% over the remain but within Scotland the vote to remain was a much bigger margin and not one area voted to leave. I have my own suspicions that Scotland's vote was not so much a vote to stay within the EU but more of a vote to not be governed by London. I have always felt there is a dislike of the English from north of the border and I cynically imagine they would rather be ruled by Mongolia than London. I'm interested to hear the thoughts of the Scottish members on here who have a much better handle on the sentiment of their fellow countrymen.

 

[TheKevlarKid]

Someone needs to give her a dictionary with a page marker on the word 'independent'. I don't think she understands  what the true meaning of the word is. 

 

independent

 

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[in-di-pen-duh nt] 

 

adjective

1.

not influenced or controlled by others in matters ofopinion, conduct, etc.; thinking or acting for oneself:

an independent thinker.

2.

not subject to another's authority or jurisdiction;autonomous; free:

an independent businessman.

[Dunc]

Well, you asked so here's my view as a Scot: The SNP's manifesto has been "independence in Europe" for the last 15-20 years - no real surprise that the SNP advocated remain.

I'm Scottish, but have lived in Kent/Surrey for the past 15 years. What I would say is that Scotland doesn't have the same "concerns" about immigration that are felt where I live now - immigrants in Scotland are likely to be there to do a skilled job and have migrated for a particular skill set, or they are prepared to work hard in agriculture, which our natives seem to have turned their backs on.

The awkward truth is that we have just had a referendum on a subject beyond the comprehension of a lot of UK voters. I've just watched interviews from Rochdale with an elderly chap saying it was all about immigration and stopping the African and Syrian migrants. When in reality we were talking about our rights to do business, travel and work elsewhere in a trading block.

I was employed as an economist before moving into my current field so it's an area of personal interest for me and I was gobsmacked by the deafening silence in the lead up to the referendum as to what the key issues were. Instead we were treated to stories about the NHS, immigration, Turkeys rise into eu member and the problems on Greece etc etc.

nobody mentioned the benefits We get apart from Jamie Dimon and a few other airline heads.

I'm not about to criticise anyone on our forum who exercised their right to vote whichever way they felt, but for such a huge issue, we weren't given the facts and I think a lot of people voted on the basis of emotions.

i even saw one twat saying he voted to bring down the conservative government. Nothing like a bit of short termism and missing the bigger picture.

Hopefully the damage will not be as severe as some predict, but there will be job losses in banking and investment, possible stagflation and increased interest rates at a time when we don't need or want them, pulling our already shakey recovery back, possibly into recession. Our government borrowing is likely to get more expensive as we replace our already large borrowing requirement. If we had austerity measures before, prepare for more of the same as our gdp growth is now unlikely to dig us out of the hole we dropped ourself into over the past ten years.

people in Rochdale might not give a shit about jobs in London, but it all trickles down into public sector jobs and local authority budgets.

But hey, at least nobodies telling us what to do.

Dunc

[C8RKH]

1 hour ago, Paul Coleman said:

Having just watched Nicola Sturgeon this morning debating the options to keep Scotland in the EU I'm wondering about a few things... why was Scotland so in favour of staying in the EU given the majority of England was in favour of leaving? I realise the leave vote was only 4% over the remain but within Scotland the vote to remain was a much bigger margin and not one area voted to leave. I have my own suspicions that Scotland's vote was not so much a vote to stay within the EU but more of a vote to not be governed by London. I have always felt there is a dislike of the English from north of the border and I cynically imagine they would rather be ruled by Mongolia than London. I'm interested to hear the thoughts of the Scottish members on here who have a much better handle on the sentiment of their fellow countrymen.

 

So, I'm English by birth, to a Scottish Mother and English father. I have lived and worked in Scotland for 22 years, I have daughter born in England (5 months old when we moved here) and I've had two sons born in Scotland. My family is split 50% English and 50% Scottish So, although not "Scottish" myself, I feel I can at least offer an opinion.

You are correct Paul, in my humble opinion, in that they want to not be ruled by London and also that there is a dislike of the English. Many Scots have a massive 300, 400 and 500 year old chip that carry on their shoulders and they blame everything on Everyone But Me - I was thinking of getting some EBM t-shirts printed. However, there is also a significant proportion who have no issue with the English or anyone else at all. It just seems that if you support Independence and the SNP, then ergo, you have to blame and bash the English regardless. It's a tribal thing I think.

However, just like everywhere else the people who live in Scotland, including myself and my family, are being lied to and hoodwinked by Holyrood, just like we are by Westminster and Brussels, and their leaders have sold a "story" around independence. They believe that they can rise up and be an independent nation and take back control from London and Westminster. The reality has not yet dawned, that what will happen is that they will just be changing their reporting lines from Westminster to Brussels. Indeed, you could practically argue that Westminster has delivered the framework that has given Scotland the highest levels of control and power that any devolved government has in the world. The irony is, that at a time when Scotland is getting this additional power, their leaders are seeking to jump out of this supportive framework and into a new one, with Brussels, that is hell bent on reducing regional control, and tightening control across legal and fiscal policy areas, and many other things that would actually be devolved to Holyrood if it stayed in the UK.

I also think there is a view that Scotland will get what Scotland wants and a lack of maturity in understanding, that just like Brexit, there is going to be negotiation and that by its very nature, not everything that is wanted will be achieved.

The political landscape has changed with Brexit. Indyref2 is not, in my opinion a given, nor is the outcome. The reality will hit home that whilst Scotland gets it's "freedom" from the rUK, it will come at a price. And that price will likely be the acceptance and timetable for Scotland to move from the pound to the euro. The acceptance of full open borders within Europe to allow the full and free movement of people - these two things are Non-negotiable founding principles as far as the EU Commission and Council are concerned - and the latter will result, as a result of Brexit with a land border between the rUK and Scotland. 

So travel between Scotland and rUK will get that little more irksome, but more important, trade between Scotland and its biggest trading partner for exports, the rUK, will be mired with the added complication of currency fluctuations and risk.

Also, in order to accede, let us not forget that ALL 27 remaining EU members need to vote in Scotlands favour. We already know the Spanish, Belgian and Italians are not happy, as they have their own issues that could be stirred up with an easy Scottish ascent into the EU. At the last Indyref Alex Salmond was able to duck the whole EU accession issue as he, in my opinion, lied when he stated that he had full and open discussions and had an outline agreement - he didn't and we all could see that after the referendum. This time, the people will want to see proof.

I think we are in for interesting times, and right now, my dilemma is do I put my home up for sale and move to England now, or wait and see. I was at a 30th party for a friends son last night, met a lovely English couple who've lived in Dunkeld for 40 years and are now considering moving as the "hate" they are getting from so called long term local friends and neighbours as they voted NO in the Indyref has just become to much for them.  That's sad and quite damning really and flies in the face of the Scottish pragmatic, open and welcoming nature that I thought I knew.

Everything is changing, only time will tell if it is for the better.

 

[Barrykearley]

Woah - @C8RKH on the bright side there's no Welsh in that mix 

funny how lots of people appear to be desiring a socialist communist mix - yet all the while spouting democracy..... I'm confused.

 

[andmac]

I'm Scots born and bred, I voted for Sottish independance but voted out of Europe. If there is a second ref on Scottish independance with Scotland as part of EU I will vote no .

Scots are canny by nature and I think a vote to stay in europe was largely a vote to keep the status quo. I think the negative campaigning has more impact in Scotland particularly rural areas where agriculture and tourism are major contributors to the economy.

As far Scots having a dislike for the English, I would say that yes there are some people who dislike English as there are some of English who dislike Scots, but it is a small proportion. I have lived and worked in England and have friends and family there. I know a lot of people who voted against  independance both Scots and English and I've never heard anything but good natured banter between both sides

I think we now have a golden opportunity to make the BRITISH economy leaner and more competitive .

I think the EU is going to go through massive change now after brexit as other countries follow our lead.

Just my thoughts

[Bibs]

Scotland isn't financially sustainable or we'd not have the Barnett Formula, or they're not willing to admit they are and have the Barnett Formula cut. If that was stopped as it would if they weren't part of the UK, they'd be 110% needing money from the EU to sustain themselves financially I'd imagine.

Oil is currently just over $50/barrel, it doesn't look good for their economy.

[pete]

think the eu have a different opinion to Sturgeon

http://metro.co.uk/2016/06/26/scotland-is-told-it-wont-be-able-to-stay-in-the-eu-after-brexit-5967168/

[C8RKH]

19 minutes ago, Bibs said:

Scotland isn't financially sustainable or we'd not have the Barnett Formula, or they're not willing to admit they are and have the Barnett Formula cut. If that was stopped as it would if they weren't part of the UK, they'd be 110% needing money from the EU to sustain themselves financially I'd imagine.

Oil is currently just over $50/barrel, it doesn't look good for their economy.

Public spending per head in Scotland is lower than in England, and has been for quite some time, albeit that was not the case when the Barnet formula was first instigated. Currently as a % of GDP Scotland spends about 42.5% of GDP on welfare, compared to around 45.5% in England. However, Scotland does benefit through Barnet as only about 17% of the cuts in England, have been passed on to Scotland via the Barnet changes.

Oil is not the whole story, the biggest problem facing Scotland is her demographics - you see whilst England has benefited greatly from immigration (largely younger, more mobile and work active people) Scotland's population hasn't and is getting older creating a future time bomb in care costs, especially when you look at free personal care for the elderly, free prescriptions, glasses, etc.

I doubt that anyone in Scotland could credibly argue that a divorce from the UK would not result in hardship and a loss of budget. Additional cash would be needed to keep the standard of spending the same, or,services would need to be cut. Simples.

[C8RKH]

Wow - it looks like finally we are seeing some sanity in the EU - democracy will win and well done the UK for having the bravery to kick start it.

 

French economy minister Emmanuel Macron suggested a new mission statement should be drafted and put to a referendum of all EU citizens.

"We've never had the courage to organise a true European referendum in its real sense," he told a conference.

"We would first build this new project with European peoples and then submit this new road map, this new project, to a referendum [across the bloc]."

[Kimbers]

Love this

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36634407

 

[andydclements]

If the petition had more than 24m legitimate signatures then I'd agree there's a strong case for another poll (more than 50% of the eligible voters), as it would could mean that half the country doesn't feel comfortable with the outcome, but 2.5m is relatively a small proportion of the electorate. And, wow, some people put on false details, what a surprise. I wanted us to remain, and know that c 1/3 of the eligible voters expressed an opinion that they wanted us to leave, but it was the majority of those that expressed an opinion in the recognised method, so we have to accept that.

[basalte]

Same here, the calls for a new or further referendum just look like sour grapes and a snobbish attitude (despite Farage`s previous comment that he wouldn`t be happy with a 52-48% result which was what he got  !) .

Made me laugh though when Cornwall voted out then realised they got 60 million a year subsidy from the EU and were told by Leave they`d get the money replaced out of that lovely 350 million a week (that one will run and run) even if they voted out !  It seems that they are now cap in hand to Westminster for that missing 60 million. Sometimes you don`t get to have your cake and eat it. 

[C8RKH]

Lol what really makes me laugh is that just 2 days after the result, with no notice to quit and no negotiation every one seems to be whinging and moaning and bitching and asking where their money is. Well, it's exactly where it was on Thursday before the result and if was coming from the Eu then it will still be coming from the EU.In other words right now nothing has changed. Also, referendums are called and are treated as advisories under UK law I believe - i.e. if the Government really wanted to, it could just issue a statement thanking the people for their views and informing them that no action would be taken

The amount of negativity, hate, bile, crying, whinging and moaning is just getting really really tiresome. And as for those voters who are now saying, "yes, I know I voted leave but did not think my vote would count" - I'm sorry, but you deserve what you have got for being so bloody stupid to think that you feckless f@ckwits!  Shit there I go, negative name calling - oh, bugger, I'm an idiot.

[ChrisJ]

Interesting article about a possible way forward

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/25/we-have-the-chance-to-forge-a-new-britain-and-europe-that-we-are/

 

 

 

[Advantage]

4 hours ago, basalte said:

Same here, the calls for a new or further referendum just look like sour grapes and a snobbish attitude (despite Farage`s previous comment that he wouldn`t be happy with a 52-48% result which was what he got  !) .

Made me laugh though when Cornwall voted out then realised they got 60 million a year subsidy from the EU and were told by Leave they`d get the money replaced out of that lovely 350 million a week (that one will run and run) even if they voted out !  It seems that they are now cap in hand to Westminster for that missing 60 million. Sometimes you don`t get to have your cake and eat it. 

The fact that the "EU" money is our money handed back to us minus a significant percentage seems to be lost on many. It's long winded and expensive way for the UK to pay the UK. The EU has "given" the UK nothing. Not one single penny net. 

[ChrisJ]

[Andyww]

Just watched Coldplay at Glastonbury. According to Chris Martin we have witnessed "the collapse of our country". What is the matter with these people?

[ramjet]

According to the News here in Australia, everyone is asking for another referendum to make sure the first referendum was right.  

[Vanya]

I think this is how it will play out in the end. But not before a massive full-spectrum campaign explaining why "remain" is the only right answer. After the 2nd referendum, when we see a reversal of the current results, we'll be treated to headlines of how "democracy prevailed".

[Barrykearley]

@Vanya that just ain't gonna happen.

brits are funny old folks - politicians need to be very careful now and follow the direction laid down by the voters. 

[C8RKH]

You know it's funny but the posts above suggest that democracy only works when the "right" decision is achieved. I really do hope that is not the case.

I'm with Barry in that I do not see the UK Government calling a 2nd referendum to make sure the decision of the first referendum was right.

Now, if as I suspect, as a result of this shock, the national Governments of the EU member states have been woken and shaken, we may well be on the verge of a radical strategic shift in the thinking behind the EU, and the move to ever closer political union and the creation of an EU superstate may be slowed, or even dropped, in favour of closer union through trade.

Now in my humble opinion, if that was to happen, that would be a material change and justification for putting the question back to the citizens of the UK. But to be clear, the fact the result was close or not the "right" answer is not sufficient justification.

Everyone is looking at the UK and proclaiming doom and gloom, but the EU in its current guise is steering right into the flow of icebergs. I think we all need to sit tight, observe, and see what is going to happen. 

[Vanya]

I've long believed Western Democracy is a sham, partly because of the types of campaigns that I mentioned where the electorate is bombed with one-sided propaganda in order to make the "right decision" according to the kleptocrats, but also because the outcomes are always the same regardless of party. There is no "Change You Can Believe In". I've observed this to be the same in most "democratic" countries.

My own personal beliefs aside, I'm in total agreement with what you say - but it's also the single greatest reason I think there WILL be a second referendum. Brussels will be shitting bricks in the coming days; nobody wants to rock the boat, everyone stands to lose, including the UK, considering the imminent dissolution of it if Scotland should secede. I think the outcome of the 1st referendum will indeed force Brussels to make concessions to member states and respect individual wishes, the UK included. Which I suppose is a greater victory than merely the withdrawal of the UK from the Union, no?

In a sense everyone stands to win - the UK thwarts it's own self-destruction, gains concessions from the EU - as do other EU member states who have the political firepower to make the same threat of leaving. 

 

[Andyww]

The body with the biggest influence in the EU has always been German industry. In fact the whole EU structure is geared around them. They will likely push for, and get, a free trade deal with the UK.

Our side should agree to continuation of free movement of people but no benefits whatsoever paid to non-EU citizens and compulsory health insurance.

[DaveyT]

C8...

your above scenario is the one I would hope comes off...it's why I voted out, as it became obvious that there would be no ground-change to EU policies without a Brexit vote.

if there were to be significant change at that level, I don't even think a second referendum would be required, as the Brexit politicos would likely claim to have achieved a better way forward, and the ref is not binding anyway.

any case, the longer the delay before invoking article 50 the better IMO, as it will show the adverse feeling for the EU from many more countries' populations, not to mention be a good "cooling off" period for BR exiteers who may now be wondering if they did the right thing ( I'm not in that camp)., and would be more likey to lead to EU reform- various foreign ministers are already talking about it, but in the situation where UK is not part of EU.

as you say, we shall see...