Coronavirus

[gregs24]

13 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

No - yet again ASMR per 100k.

It sure isn’t the covid deaths of people  - and then split into vaccinated and unvaccinated.

simple question   - seems strange just how hard it is to see this specific data.

Table 10 on the attached

COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 51 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

[gregs24]

8 hours ago, SFO said:

From The Telegraph:

A third of patients in hospitals in England with Covid are not being treated primarily for the virus, new figures show.

Of the 8,321 patients with coronavirus in NHS acute trusts in England on December 28, 2,743 (33 per cent) of patients with Covid were being primarily treated for something else.

Some 5,578 patients (67 per cent) were mainly being treated for Covid, down from 71 per cent a week earlier and 74 per cent at the start of December, according to official NHS data.

The number being treated primarily for Covid-19 rose by around a quarter from 4,432 on December 21 to 5,578 on December 28, while those with Covid-19 but who were being treated primarily for something else jumped by more than 51 per cent from 1,813 to 2,743.

Note how the hospitalisations have only started to grow significantly in the last few days. Remember the omicron wave so far has only been in people that are at low risk of hospitalisation and that seeding into high risk people only happened in the last week or so to any significant extent. Not sure what you are arguing the case for ? Are you suggesting omicron is a non event ? You were initially suggesting cases were not really growing two weeks ago, now you are arguing admissions to hospital are not growing. Give it time and then you will be arguing deaths are not increasing. I hope the latter is correct but I can assure you that YOU do not know this for sure and those who have responsibility for public health in the UK don't either. 

Healthcare in the UK | Coronavirus in the UK (data.gov.uk)

It reflects the case rates by age group

[gregs24]

CDC COVID Data Tracker

Some good CDC data on vaccine effectiveness

[PaulCP]

2 hours ago, windymiller said:

so 1st case of florona detected in israel !!! 🙄 i was sick of brexit now id love to talk brexit rather than covid 🙄 please make it go away soon 😑

Hallelujah to that 👍

Why Israel? I seem to recall that this is not the first time Israel have claimed to have found a new variant 🤔

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, gregs24 said:

Table 10 on the attached

COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report - week 51 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

Thank you 👍

Thats very interesting indeed. If you add up some numbers lets look at the data

 

table b shows -

3838 deaths

889 unvaccinated  - 2913 vaccinated.

 

[gregs24]

23 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

Thank you 👍

Thats very interesting indeed. If you add up some numbers lets look at the data

 

table b shows -

3838 deaths

889 unvaccinated  - 2913 vaccinated.

 

Indeed. Of course coming from an at risk population that is 90% plus vaccinated, those figures tell a pretty dramatic story.

To get 889 cases from 10% or so of the at adult population, compared to only 3.2 times that from about 90% of the adult population is an incredible testament to how effective the vaccine is at preventing death. Concurs nicely with the admission data from ONS and CDC where vaccination dramatically reduces the risk of hospitalisation. If you scaled up the vaccinated to the same ratio of the population as the non vaccinated you would get something like 8500 deaths

889 / 6 million (unvaccinated over 12's) = 0.000148

0.000148 x 51 million (vaccinated over 12's) is 7553 deaths

And remember this is per month at a time when the delta wave was fairly stable.

Of course if we ever managed 100% vaccination all deaths would be in vaccinated people. Oft quoted by anti vaxxers as a justification for why vaccines don't work but clearly erroneous.

[gregs24]

2 hours ago, PaulCP said:

Hallelujah to that 👍

Why Israel? I seem to recall that this is not the first time Israel have claimed to have found a new variant 🤔

Not a new variant - a combined case of flu and COVID which the Daily Express seems to have got excited about. I find it hard to believe we have not had combined infections in the UK.

Flu rates are very low here in the UK currently whereas in Israel they have a significant outbreak making co-infection far more likely.

Weekly Flu and COVID-19 Report_w51 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

The obvious conclusion, as per government advice, is to get your flu vaccine to reduce the risk later in the winter. 

[Barrykearley]

42 minutes ago, gregs24 said:

To get 889 cases from 10% or so of the at adult population, compared to only 3.2 times that from about 90% of the adult population is an incredible testament to how effective the vaccine is at preventing death. Concurs nicely with the admission data from ONS and CDC where vaccination dramatically reduces the risk of hospitalisation. If you scaled up the vaccinated to the same ratio of the population as the non vaccinated you would get something like 8500 deaths

889 / 6 million (unvaccinated over 12's) = 0.000148

Of which 607/889 is in the 60+ Category. Add in the average age of death and the typical life expectancy rates - then a different picture can be considered. You cannot simply start applying the logic from 60+ age groups into all over 12s - that’s ridiculous to even suggest.

[gregs24]

21 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

Of which 607/889 is in the 60+ Category. Add in the average age of death and the typical life expectancy rates - then a different picture can be considered. You cannot simply start applying the logic from 60+ age groups into all over 12s - that’s ridiculous to even suggest.

Actually the opposite is true. It should be fairly safe to suggest that generally death from anything other than COVID would be an equivalent risk in those vaccinated and not vaccinated. So the only differentiating factor is the vaccine between the two populations, and risk of death from COVID  

The 60+ age group have even higher percentage vaccination rates than the over 12's so actually that would make it even worse as those 607 would be an even larger fraction of a smaller unvaccinated population. 

I'm not really sure what the point is you are trying to make. The vaccine clearly works well at preventing hospitalisation and death, the number of deaths saved is clearly only ever going to be an estimate, but it is clearly a large number. After all, if from the CDC data we can clearly see the chance of being admitted is hugely higher when not vaccinated, the risk of subsequent death is only ever going to be higher. Even a cursory comparison of our own data shows how the vaccine has largely broken the link between cases and deaths.

You need to clarify the point you are trying to make ?

[Barrykearley]

Point is and let’s face it - the government and bbc are hyping up the death rate of dying with covid 19.

it’s always suited their argument for all the actions they have taken. Let’s hope 2022 will stop this spin.

[PaulCP]

1 hour ago, gregs24 said:

Not a new variant - a combined case of flu and COVID which the Daily Express seems to have got excited about. I find it hard to believe we have not had combined infections in the UK.

Flu rates are very low here in the UK currently whereas in Israel they have a significant outbreak making co-infection far more likely.

Weekly Flu and COVID-19 Report_w51 (publishing.service.gov.uk)

The obvious conclusion, as per government advice, is to get your flu vaccine to reduce the risk later in the winter. 

Makes sense 👍

Don’t you just loathe our useless media who just like to continue painting a doomsday scenario 😠. It is the 1 thing that Trump got right………”Fake News”

[gregs24]

15 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

Point is and let’s face it - the government and bbc are hyping up the death rate of dying with covid 19.

it’s always suited their argument for all the actions they have taken. Let’s hope 2022 will stop this spin.

Well I'm afraid I disagree. The three measures of death rate data are very precisely defined (and actually the BBC use one of the lowest estimates most of the time) so it isn't hyped - it is just factual. 

How that data is used can be criticised, but not the data itself.

Out of respect to the many who have died of COVID and it's related sequelae I think it is best left there.

 

[SFO]

On 01/01/2022 at 20:19, gregs24 said:

Not sure what you are arguing the case for ? Are you suggesting omicron is a non event ? You were initially suggesting cases were not really growing two weeks ago, now you are arguing admissions to hospital are not growing. Give it time and then you will be arguing deaths are not increasing. 

I merely reproduced some quotes from The Telegraph. Folks can make their own minds up. I wasn't suggesting anything nor was I advocating any particular position. 

[Barrykearley]

Bet you voted for Scottish Independence @SFO 

[mayevora]

[Barrykearley]

Popped up in news this morning - amazing just how many fit the governments approach towards us citizens - yet in a home relationship it’s against the law.

https://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/19820402.10-signs-coercive-control-within-relationship---law-says/?fbclid=IwAR3Vdzi5rLgBqCjIZ4zKir854-BTHKMls6FUyR-FkB4uZylDM4UqKnQoHyA

[gregs24]

4 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Popped up in news this morning - amazing just how many fit the governments approach towards us citizens - yet in a home relationship it’s against the law.

https://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/19820402.10-signs-coercive-control-within-relationship---law-says/?fbclid=IwAR3Vdzi5rLgBqCjIZ4zKir854-BTHKMls6FUyR-FkB4uZylDM4UqKnQoHyA

Only in your world 😉

All good here

 

[yeller77]

Quote

7. Putting tracking devices on your phone It is illegal under the new legislation to “monitor a person using online communication tools or spyware”.

LOL, as opposed to what Apple, Google, Facebook (oops Meta), etc do every nanosecond. Of course, we all implicitly agreed to that unless taking the effort (by design) to opt out!

 

[ramjet]

I wonder if any of the anti-vax brigade ever say "No! You are not putting that drip in my arm!" if they are ever admitted for any reason to hospital? Just because the label says NaCl in solution", doesn't mean that it isn't loaded with tracker nanocytes and chips to make everyone subservient. What about the trackers in the tea and biscuits that you get at 3pm? Oh no! The meals that are made by the hospital! How deep does this rabbit hole go?

There would be more crap legally put into our systems by food manufacturers than the vaccine is ever going to.

Or I wonder if they agree to anaesthesia before any kind of surgery? "We're going to give you a heart bypass so that you can live a tad longer. Take a deep breath. You might feel a little sting." Everyone needs to know that the anaesthetic is just so that it gets logged and the government knows you were having surgery.

Like they could give a fat rat's.........

But what would I know? I live in Australia. If you believe some flat earthers, I think you will find they say that Australia is about 6 times the size it actually is. (Which is rubbish as I drove from one side of it to the other. Either my Commodore averaged about 500km/h or it really is the size that the maps show)

We're just surrounded by conspiracies! When will it end?!?

[gregs24]

4 hours ago, ramjet said:

I wonder if any of the anti-vax brigade ever say "No! You are not putting that drip in my arm!" if they are ever admitted for any reason to hospital? Just because the label says NaCl in solution", doesn't mean that it isn't loaded with tracker nanocytes and chips to make everyone subservient. What about the trackers in the tea and biscuits that you get at 3pm? Oh no! The meals that are made by the hospital! How deep does this rabbit hole go?

There would be more crap legally put into our systems by food manufacturers than the vaccine is ever going to.

Or I wonder if they agree to anaesthesia before any kind of surgery? "We're going to give you a heart bypass so that you can live a tad longer. Take a deep breath. You might feel a little sting." Everyone needs to know that the anaesthetic is just so that it gets logged and the government knows you were having surgery.

Like they could give a fat rat's.........

But what would I know? I live in Australia. If you believe some flat earthers, I think you will find they say that Australia is about 6 times the size it actually is. (Which is rubbish as I drove from one side of it to the other. Either my Commodore averaged about 500km/h or it really is the size that the maps show)

We're just surrounded by conspiracies! When will it end?!?

There have always been nutters, just in the old days they only talked to themselves. Now they have the Internet to voice their delusions. Most people see them for what they are.

[C8RKH]

5 minutes ago, gregs24 said:

There have always been nutters, just in the old days they only talked to themselves. Now they have the Internet to voice their delusions. Most people see them for what they are.

Nutters, or people who have a different view to you? To use the analogy from @ramjet how is the stance of the anti-vaxxers any different, really, than that say from a Jehovah's Witness who would refuse blood based transfusion/medical intervention even if it was the only way to save their life due to their belief that it is against God's will?  Does that make them a "nutter", or just someone who has a different point of view/belief system? Even though the empirical evidence "proves" that the blood transfusion would save their life, is that a reason to over ride or dismiss what they believe in?

It's very easy to use generic statements like "there have always been nutters" when it looks like you are referring to someone who does not share your beliefs, PoV, or point of understanding.

[Barrykearley]

Typical - now we see folks demeaning those with mental health issues. Yet another N word added to the offensive register 🤭

[Bibs]

Some cognitive bias examples... Most conspiracy theorists can tick a few of these boxes, if not most of them!

1. Foundational Attribution Error. When someone else is late, it's because they're lazy. When you're late, it was the traffic.  

2. Self-Serving Bias. Attributing all your successes to skill or effect and all your screw ups to bad luck or a bad situation. 

3. In-Group Favoritism. We tend to favor those in our in-group versus those who are different from us.  

4. Bandwagon Effect. Everyone likes to jump on a trendy bandwagon.   

5. Groupthink. Also just what it sounds like. Going along with the group to avoid conflict. The downfall of many a large organization. 

6. Halo Effect. Assuming a person has other positive traits because you observed they have one. Just because someone is confident or beautiful doesn't mean they are also smart or kind, for example. 

7. Moral Luck. Assuming winners are morally superior.  

8. False Consensus. Thinking most people agree with you even when that's not the case. 

9. Curse of Knowledge. Assuming everyone else knows what you know once you've learned something. 

10. Spotlight Effect. Overestimating how much other people are thinking about you.  

11. Availability Heuristic. Why we worry more about rare airplane crashes than objectively much deadlier road accidents. People make judgments based on how easy it is to call an example to mind (and plane crashes are memorable). 

12. Defensive Attribution. Getting more upset at someone who commits a crime we feel we could have fallen victim to ourselves.  

13. Just-World Hypothesis. The tendency to believe the world is just, so any observed injustice was really deserved. 

14. Naive Realism. Thinking we have a better grasp of reality than everyone else.  

15. Naive Cynicism. Thinking everyone else is just selfishly out for themselves.  

16. Forer Effect (aka Barnum Effect). The bias behind the appeal of astrology. We see vague statements as applying specifically to us even when they apply to most everybody. 

17. Dunning Kruger Effect. One of my personal favorites. This principle states that the less competent you are, the more confident you're likely to be because you're too incompetent to understand exactly how bad you are. The opposite is also true -- those with greater skills are often plagued with doubt. 

18. Anchoring. The way in which the first piece of information we hear tends to influence the terms or framing of an entire discussion.  

19. Automation Bias. Over relying on automated systems like GPS or autocorrect.   

20. Google Effect (aka Digital Amnesia). You're more likely to forget it if you can just Google it. 

21. Reactance. Doing the opposite of what you're told when you feel bullied or backed into a corner. Very topical. 

22. Confirmation Bias. We tend to look for and be more easily convinced by information that confirms our existing beliefs. A big one in politics. 

23. Backfire Effect. Repeatedly mentioning a false belief to disprove it sometimes ends up just making people believe it more. 

24. Third-Person Effect. The belief that others are more affected by a common phenomenon than you are.  

25. Belief Bias. Judging an argument not on its own merits but by how plausible we think its conclusion is. 

26. Availability Cascade. The more people believe (and talk about) something the more likely we are to think it's true.

27. Declinism. Romanticizing the past and thinking we live in an age of decline.  

28. Status Quo Bias. People tend to like things to stay the same, even if change would be beneficial. 

29. Sunk Cost Fallacy (AKA Escalation of Commitment). Throwing good money (or effort) after bad to avoid facing up to a loss. 

30. Gambler's Fallacy. Thinking future probabilities are affected by past events. In sports, the hot hand. 

31. Zero-Risk Bias. We prefer to reduce small risks to zero rather than reduce risks by a larger amount that doesn't get them to zero. 

32. Framing Effect. Drawing different conclusions from the same information depending on how it's framed. 

33. Stereotyping. Just what it sounds like -- having general beliefs about entire groups of people (and applying them to individuals whether you know them or not).  

34. Outgroup Homogeneity Bias. Seeing the diversity within the groups to which you belong but imagining people in groups to which you don't belong are all alike. 

35. Authority Bias. Putting too much stock in authority figures. 

36. Placebo Effect. This isn't strictly a cognitive bias according to Musk's graphic, but still useful to know. If you think something will work, you're likely to experience a small positive effect whether it really does or not. 

37. Survivorship Bias. We remember the winners and forget about the many, invisible losers. Big in startups. 

38. Tachypsychia. How exhaustion, drugs, or trauma mess with our sense of time. 

39. Law of Triviality (AKA Bike-Shedding). Giving excessive weight to trivial issues while ignoring more important ones. 

40. Zeigarnik Effect. Uncompleted tasks haunt our brains until we finish them. 

41. Ikea Effect. We tend to overvalue things we had a hand in creating. (In my experience not true of Billy bookcases, but still ...)  

42. Ben Franklin Effect. We tend to think more positively about people once we've done a favor for them. 

43. Bystander Effect. Again, not strictly a cognitive bias, but important. Describes how people are less likely to take responsibility to act if they're in a crowd. 

44. Suggestibility. Seen most often in children, this is when we mistake an idea or question someone else said for your own memory. 

45. False Memory. Mistaking something you imagined for a memory.  

46. Cryptomnesia. The opposite of the one above. Thinking a true memory is something you imagined. 

47. Clustering Illusion. The tendency to "see" patterns in random data. 

48. Pessimism Bias. Always seeing the glass as half empty.  

49. Optimism Bias. Always seeing the glass as half full. 

50. Blind Spot Bias. The bias that makes us think we don't have as many biases as other people. You do.  

[Mark Blanchard]

Above phrases taken from Harry Markle's Archewell zoom summit.

[Colin P]

Does No 28 apply to the reorganisation of the Topic listings on our favourite online Forum?