Brexit

[JG220]

1 hour ago, C8RKH said:

So what the last 3 or 4 posts are essentially saying is that the 3 years of stalling and procrastination have actually, or most possibly, been enough to scupper the democratic outcome at the time.  Just wow.

I am starting to ponder, in a jokey manner as I do, that @JG220 is possibly the offspring of a late afternoon, post lunch, collaboration between a certain Mr. Junckers and Ms. Merkel!  But then I did cuss myself for having such stupid and obviously incorrect ponders as he drives a Lotus, and not a German car.

😁 

I’ve got 3 German cars too 😜 (is the Vx German or French? - I’ll go German given it was under Opel ownership when it was made, and only sold to PSA in 2017iirc)

I’m a model European 😉

[Barrykearley]

47 minutes ago, JG220 said:

I’m a model European 😉

Ive not been brainwashed into losing my cultural roots

im a white working  class English male - which frankly makes me a bigoted racist xenophobic individual if you look at the media

And politically unrepresented by any party 

[JG220]

Neither have I, I can just see the bigger picture. I can be British and European. Though increasingly, i'm embarrassed about the former. 

Another good article:

https://www.ft.com/content/5f3df8bc-4c03-11e9-bde6-79eaea5acb64?segmentid=acee4131-99c2-09d3-a635-873e61754ec6&fbclid=IwAR0orTI-UmbT9wrW60tHPvWpiuEPRS-qnm4eNBsU-2h_wH3aMdXBvJNMqx4

[Barrykearley]

Ahh the media campaign over the last decade has worked a treat on you then if it’s eroding your British pride.

posting media articles is almost pointless as being a leave voter - i obviously can’t read

[C8RKH]

2 hours ago, JG220 said:

Though increasingly, i'm embarrassed about the former. 

Maybe you're really the love child of Lilly Allan and will now go forth and apologise to the world on our behalf!

There's still time for you to move to Europe, I'll even help you by hiring a van for you. Go on now, toddle off. We wouldn't want you to be any more embarrassed than you need to be. If we hurry, we can get you there for lunch before Daddy Juncker finishes all the wine.

 I can see a big picture too by the way. It's just different to the one you can see and in my opinion better. I find it a bit sharper than yours. A little more adventurous.  The brush strokes used are better defined, strong, and give a feeling of confidence and have an air of aspiration about them. It just looks to me more authentic. More honest. Whilst at the same time reducing the opaque and the translucent.  As such, I'm not embarrassed by it. Shame you can't see it, I am sure it is altogether better than the one you are looking at. A Munch isn't it, yours? A fine observation on the Norway deal, in its own way too.

[Steve V8]

2 hours ago, JG220 said:

I can just see the bigger picture. 

I don't think you can James, 

To do that you'll need to step outside of your bubble into the real world.

Freedom of movement...you need to get out into the towns and villages to see the impact on infrastructure and housing, my little town used to be be surrounded by greenbelt land, it's all gone, and the government wants to build 10 million new homes, for who? most of our European friends aren't working, they're claiming, taking out, not putting in.

Finance and tech may be doing well in the cities, but our manufacturing base around the country is systematically being sold off, and or stripped and moved into central and eastern Europe. Basic economics should tell you that's a recipe for disaster, and don't blame brexit, it's been going on for years. Given a chance to start trading and building up a competitive industry, our politicians throw it away. And bollocks to making wings for Airbus, let's compete and build the whole damn plane. 

Which bigger picture are you seeing?

One of you and Anna Subrey swigging Reisling and eating camembert whilst burning the Union Jack.

That's how you're coming across

 

 

[ChrisJ]

3 hours ago, JG220 said:

I can be British and European

The EU is NOT Europe

[Andyww]

The DHL guy who picks up from us daily gives a very "out of the bubble" view of why he voted leave.

In the old days he said, companies valued drivers and offered perks and benefits to keep them, including pay rises above minimum wage. There was a shortage of drivers and there was job security.

Now, DHL have a huge supply of drivers, like a kind of infinite header tank, just open the tap and more appear as there are an unlimited number available from the EU countries. So no benefits, min wage and if you are seen to put a foot wrong, you are given the boot. The Polish drivers live 3 or 4 in a room. Most of them are counting the employment days which qualify them for full UK benefits.

[CHANGES]

Not forgetting the child allowance they get for their children that are not even in this country. !!!!!  

[JG220]

1 hour ago, C8RKH said:

There's still time for you to move to Europe, I'll even help you by hiring a van for you. Go on now, toddle off. We wouldn't want you to be any more embarrassed than you need to be. If we hurry, we can get you there for lunch before Daddy Juncker finishes all the wine.

 

Is that really necessary?

[Stubox]

2 hours ago, C8RKH said:

Maybe you're really the love child of Lilly Allan and will now go forth and apologise to the world on our behalf!

There's still time for you to move to Europe, I'll even help you by hiring a van for you. Go on now, toddle off. We wouldn't want you to be any more embarrassed than you need to be. If we hurry, we can get you there for lunch before Daddy Juncker finishes all the wine.

 I can see a big picture too by the way. It's just different to the one you can see and in my opinion better. I find it a bit sharper than yours. A little more adventurous.  The brush strokes used are better defined, strong, and give a feeling of confidence and have an air of aspiration about them. It just looks to me more authentic. More honest. Whilst at the same time reducing the opaque and the translucent.  As such, I'm not embarrassed by it. Shame you can't see it, I am sure it is altogether better than the one you are looking at. A Munch isn't it, yours? A fine observation on the Norway deal, in its own way too.

That’s a pretty unpleasant post isn’t it. You both have opinions that you hold strongly but this post more resembles adolescent bullying . 

[C8RKH]

1 hour ago, Stubox said:

2 hours ago, JG220 said:

Is that really necessary?

 

I found some of your posts quite unecessary bordering on offensive so responded and addressed them. That's all. I too can have feelings you know.

As someone famous once said "just because you are offended it does not mean you are right".

You are just more subtle about it than me.

 

[Bibs]

@JG220, @C8RKH - Please don't post in this thread again in response to each other, any posts will be deleted and if you give me lots of work deleting posts, I'll take further action to restrict your posting. This isn't a point for discussion. Thank you. 

[C8RKH]

Ok

[JG220]

4 hours ago, Steve V8 said:

I don't think you can James, 

To do that you'll need to step outside of your bubble into the real world.

Freedom of movement...you need to get out into the towns and villages to see the impact on infrastructure and housing, my little town used to be be surrounded by greenbelt land, it's all gone, and the government wants to build 10 million new homes, for who? most of our European friends aren't working, they're claiming, taking out, not putting in.

Finance and tech may be doing well in the cities, but our manufacturing base around the country is systematically being sold off, and or stripped and moved into central and eastern Europe. Basic economics should tell you that's a recipe for disaster, and don't blame brexit, it's been going on for years. Given a chance to start trading and building up a competitive industry, our politicians throw it away. And bollocks to making wings for Airbus, let's compete and build the whole damn plane. 

Which bigger picture are you seeing?

One of you and Anna Subrey swigging Reisling and eating camembert whilst burning the Union Jack.

That's how you're coming across

 

 

Steve, some responses to your points

I think you're right about the housing crisis. While it may partly be down to net migration, the issue is that housing, in the south east at least, is just too expensive. Swathes of housing in these areas are just investment vehicles (often unlived in). I don' think that's fundamentally a migration issue, and it would be quite easy to legislate against.  As for EU immigrants they are net contributors. only 2.2% of EU migrants in UK claim benefits according to this https://ukandeu.ac.uk/fact-figures/how-many-eu-migrants-claim-benefits-in-the-uk/ (the data is 4 years old, I'll grant you that, however suspect it hasn't shifted either way). 

I don't think that protectionism will save manufacturing. Why would Brexit save those jobs? The UK will have to sign up to traffic agreements with the EU, and likely other nations post WA, and coming form a position of weakness means we'll get a deal which will be unfavourable at best. Even if, let's assume that the deal was at least as good as we have it now, still those manufacturing jobs are just as likely to be at risk as they are now. Why would anyone wanting access to the European (the UK market, while attractive, is still going to be too small to make major investment for access to it only) market build in Britain?

I couldn't agree with you more about the state of investment in the UK, especially in Tech. Actually at the moment, it is largely driven by Brexit uncertainty. Investment £s are not flowing and it's a big issue. VCs are waiting until there is some kind of white smoke for what will happen next. Meanwhile the rest of Europe is pining for its Brexit dividend, and the capital investment is going there instead. To a certain extent the damage is already done. 

I like Riesling and Camembert, so hopefully those will be low tariff items 😜 

[Andyww]

You have incorrectly quoted the figures.

The correct figure is 2.2% of all claimants are immigrants from the EU. Thats a large figure. 113960 people to be precise.

Furthermore the figures on being "net contributors" are fiddled to give the "correct" result because they do not take into account any effect on local job displacement. They assume no EU immigrants take away any jobs or cause any wage compression of existing workers.

The study you quoted was funded by the EU and is a clear example of EU bending the truth to further their own ends. A classic case of plucking the figures selectively out to get the result they want. 

[JG220]

Ah yes, good point. I miss-read that. Finally, some decent and sensible debate. I stand corrected. 

In any event 2.2% of the total welfare bill is relatively small. It would be interesting to know how many UK nationals are claiming benefits (especially retirement ones in France for example) in the EU. This article (if I have read it correctly!) suggests around 30k (but that they are much more generous than we are)

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu

Do we really believe though that Immigrants are 'taking away our jobs'? I thought we already had mass resource shortages, due to the effects of pre-brexit (be they nurses, fruit pickers etc)

Edited March 28, 2019 by ramjet
Bibs said about four posts earlier, there is no need to quote the reply directly above your own.

[Bibs]

12 minutes ago, JG220 said:

Finally, some decent and sensible debate.

Really? You're on thin ice mate, don't take the piss. 

And it's not debate, it's showing the figures you're basing your arguments on are quoted incorrectly for your own ends. That's not debate, that's just correcting inaccuracy which you quote as fact. 

Having recently been in a long term relationship with an EU national living in the UK, I've also seen first hand the huge grey market that exists in the UK for those who have travelled west. Tradesmen turning over £100k+ with no VAT/Corp/Personal tax even being considered and from what I saw, almost immunity from HMRC for it. That's not so easy when you're a UK national with NI number, tax records etc. I'd imagine this white elephant costs our economy a lot more than those on benefits, which are in fact incredibly hard to get for EU nationals in real terms. 

[Gm77]

In reality nobody knows what will happen once the UK leaves the EU.

A couple of observations. The big unknown is what will happen to our exchange rate, assuming we leave. I have now seen two reports out of Germany (neither from Brexit supporting organisations I would add) that suggest that one of the biggest concerns of their industry is that the tariffs that will apply under WTO terms, plus a devaluation of the pound, will mean that German manufactured product will be prohibitively expensive in the UK, one of their largest markets. The same survey suggested that the impact of tariffs would be nullified for UK manufactured product through a devaluation, even accounting for the back and forth required under complicated supply chains. Clearly if the currency doesn’t devalue, this won’t be the case and the UK will likely suffer. Interestingly though, the survey then stated that the majority of German business would be prepared to see a restriction to the four fundamental freedoms of the EU, if that meant closer relations with the UK. The stated view of EU politicians is obviously different.

On the UK, it’s biggest issue for years has been poor productivity. One reason this may be the case is a lack of investment in processes and technology. There are many views on how this can be dealt with and nobody has the full solution. One point that is difficult to challenge though is that if business can import cheap labour, and that same business has a short term view of planning, investment will always be limited. If you take agriculture as an example, if you can import cheap labour as many do to pick fruit, you don’t need to invest and seek ways of making processes more efficient through innovation; a double edged sword then.  Now, if we remove access to cheap labour business will either be forced to invest, or will fundamentally fail. Again, nobody knows what will happen.

One way that the UK missed a trick (applying hindsight) was the decision not to join the Euro. The value for the Euro is realised based on the purchasing power of all EU nationals - an average if you like. The strongest economies who, on a stand-alone basis, would drive their currency higher, benefit through an effective devaluation through the single currency. It’s a main reason why Germany has the second largest trade surplus in the world. If the UK had joined the EU, it would likely have benefitted in a similar way. Retaining the pound on reflection was not a good decision.

I could carry on with various points but I go back to my initial observation, nobody really knows what will happen. Basic economic theory however will tell you that even if we leave the EU without a deal, whilst there will undoubtedly be some rebalancing, the UK is one of the wealthiest countries in the world, has a highly skilled workforce, and has significant purchasing power, so it will adapt with only short to medium term pain at worst.

The question for me then is whether we are prepared to risk the cost of that short to medium term pain to achieve the political and societal change that some desire. Either way though, I’n pretty confident that we will be fine.

[C8RKH]

2 minutes ago, Gm77 said:

On the UK, it’s biggest issue for years has been poor productivity. One reason this may be the case is a lack of investment in processes and technology. There are many views on how this can be dealt with and nobody has the full solution. One point that is difficult to challenge though is that if business can import cheap labour, and that same business has a short term view of planning, investment will always be limited. If you take agriculture as an example, if you can import cheap labour as many do to pick fruit, you don’t need to invest and seek ways of making processes more efficient through innovation; a double edged sword then.  Now, if we remove access to cheap labour business will either be forced to invest, or will fundamentally fail.

I could not agree more with your comments here re efficiency and innovation. In fact, one of the things I was betting on with Brexit was good old fashioned British ingenuity being deployed to help us get out of the mess. I would add however, that one of the biggest issues many of our businesses face is the recent, over the past 10 years or so, drive to the American system of demanding quarterly results improvements and the increase in the number of "accountants" that companies are employing.  It seems these days that every Director, CFO or CEO, seems to expect 3, 4 or 5% revenue gains and profits every quarter to be successful. That is just not sustainable in most sectors and businesses and leads to a lack of investment (spending on modernisation, lean, efficiency and people eats into short term returns), short term planning cycles and a boom, boom, bust approach. Recent examples of this include Carillion, Interserve and almost took Capita out. A lot of decision making today, in government and business, is for short term gain and damn the future epitomised by the previous Labour Governments joke of a letter at the Treasury re the cupboards all being emptied!

[JG220]

35 minutes ago, Bibs said:

Really? You're on thin ice mate, don't take the piss. 

And it's not debate, it's showing the figures you're basing your arguments on are quoted incorrectly for your own ends. That's not debate, that's just correcting inaccuracy which you quote as fact. 

Having recently been in a long term relationship with an EU national living in the UK, I've also seen first hand the huge grey market that exists in the UK for those who have travelled west. Tradesmen turning over £100k+ with no VAT/Corp/Personal tax even being considered and from what I saw, almost immunity from HMRC for it. That's not so easy when you're a UK national with NI number, tax records etc. I'd imagine this white elephant costs our economy a lot more than those on benefits, which are in fact incredibly hard to get for EU nationals in real terms. 

Alright, I'm happy to accept I made a mistake on that one point. I'm man enough to own up put my hands up. I take that as good debate, I'll be the first to say I'm not always right (I usually am though 😛). In this case I'm not convinced it changed the argument significantly. 

I'm afraid I can't find anything useful on tax evasion. From my own experience then, I'd say it's pretty mixed. Dealing with the trades does seem to be where it is most prevalent, and I do try and avoid it. 

I do hope you won't stifle the conversation on this thread. I've never addressed a personal attack at anyone, and I've not complained (only questioned) when it has been directed at me. The argument can get a bit heated on occasion and I personally don't mind it (even when it got personal towards me) and I don't have anything against @C8RKH, nor would I want him silenced either.

Edited March 23, 2019 by JG220

[Andyww]

Had some deja-vu this morning. I think I mentioned way back in these 100 pages a friend who lived next door to a flat in Acton occupied by Latvians, about how they milk the benefits system, by their own admission. In their case by setting up fake minicab companies to facilitate NI numbers and claiming in-work and other benefits although they are not working or in some cases not even in the country.

I have builders in today at home and they happen to be Latvian. We were discussing Brexit, and he said his view is the UK really needs to crack down on the abuse of benefits by EU migrants, he stated it is rampant in the Latvian community and he sometimes wonders why he is working hard while many of his fellow citizens do nothing. 

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

25 minutes ago, Andyww said:

I have builders in today at home and they happen to be Latvian.

Cash in hand? 😉

Apologies: I couldn't resist. 

[PAR]

2.2% of claimants are from the EU

7.0% of workers in the Uk are from the EU

4.0% of the workers in the UK are from outside the EU.

EU born migrants contribute an average GBP2,300 more than the average

UK born people contribute in average GBP70 less than average

Non-EU migrants contribute in average GBP800 less than average.

The UK government has been running a permanent deficit meaning the average Individual receives more (service, benefits, etc) than he/she contributes.(about GBP800 per inhabitant)

[PAR]

31 minutes ago, Buddsy said:

If we do not leave on the 29 thats me done for any politics

Sounds like you are done with politics then as the only thing we seem to know now is that we are not leaving on the 29th.

we are leaving on the 12th, or on the 22nd or later or never.