Brexit

[Chillidoggy]

And now we have all the Vote Leave funding bollocks to deal with.

For me, it wouldn’t have mattered if they’d overspent 100 times, my mind was already made up. In fact the more Remain adverts I saw only strengthened my resolve.

[Steve V8]

13 hours ago, JG220 said:

There is no satisfactory outcome. Hard Brexit is shit (for all the reasons we know eg NI/I),

THe NI/I border issue is just another attempt by Europe to put a spanner in the works. I'd suggest all the doubters and sceptics who can't see a way past this drive through Switzerland. 

Having recently crossed the EU / Swiss border 6 times without once seeing any sign of border control in or out, makes a mockery out of that fabricated argument. Of course being a stupid leaver I wouldn't know about things like this...

[Andyww]

The thing that annoys me most of all about the whole "Vote Leave" thing is the way people keep banging on about the bus, as they have started to do again.

There was no lie there at all. The £350m is actually understated if everything is taken into account, not only the actual contributions.

Also there was nothing in the statement which came even close to saying the NHS would get £350 million. It was a suggestion that NHS funding could be increased if thats the way the government wanted to go: "Lets fund our NHS". There is more validity in trying to prosecute Carlsberg for saying that their lager is "probably the best in the world" when everyone knows its just a slogan, as was on the bus.

 

Noticed in the past few days BBC bias still ongoing.

The recent immigration figures show more people are still coming from the EU than leaving. But they led on the story "Record numbers of EU citizens leaving".

They showed a nice Italian couple preparing to leave but didnt for a second question why they were doing so, even with the recent statements about EU residents being allowed to stay.

[JG220]

1 hour ago, Barrykearley said:

At what point do we think it’s ok to reject democracy that’s the biggest issue.

do we the last election result? Doesn’t seem to be any of that going on.

the media are a disgrace and these idiots publicaly going out and stirring are just as bad. A politician whom can not accept a clear mandate is not fit for public office.

if this doesn’t go through and we end up to be continued to be ruled by the EU - I for one shall be rioting 

The problem is, whether we like it or not, that argument plays both ways. 

If you're in favour of Brexit, you accuse the £9m of leaflets in incumbent government released in favour of Remain as grossly out of step with the £7m limit on campaigning. Legal it may have been but then the argument is that the rules were one sided. 

If you're in favour of Remain, the fact that the Brexit campaign broke the rules and spent nearly 10% more than the leave campaign will leave you thinking the outcome was unfair. The law has clearly been broken, but the argument just shifts back to whether or not the law was fair in the first place. 

The problem with Brexit is that it cannot be corrected (well, it can once all the baby boomers die, but that's an aside) and so you don't have the opportunity like you do in normal politics to ebb and flow from right to left, liberal to conservative etc etc. And that's why it's such an issue, especially if you overlay it with our political system. Yes, democratically, as a union we voted Leave, but MPs are supposed to represent the views of their constituents. Therefore, Remain constituent MPs should be campaigning for close alignment to Europe the reverse is true in the other direction. And that's why its impossible to get a good outcome. 

I'd give up on the basis that its too hard, and too much of a waste of time for an outcome which might be a bit better, it might be a bit worse, it might be the same as before. In any event it isn't going to lead to some cataclysmic improvement. The effort doesn't equal the potential reward.   

 

[Andyww]

It was never going to result in a "cataclysmic improvement.", Even Farage agreed there would be an economic downside.

Its a matter of principle. Giving up rights to fully control borders, make and enforce our own laws, and instead supporting a self-serving corrupt organisation which cant even make up its mind where its HQ is, is not something we should be doing. 

Biggest issue is the government expected to confidently win, so no leave plans were made whatsoever. What they could have done is made a statement of intent, that we revert to the situation when we voted to join the EEC as it then was. The last time we had a vote. A trading bloc only. Yes that does mean staying in the customs union, a plan I personally have come round to accepting as a compromise.

[JG220]

I'm just not convinced its an issue deserving of such principles. 

Life won't improve in the aftermath. We won't solve any of the current issues facing the country in doing so and therefore i come back to the point that it is a colossal waste of time and we should be putting the millions of man/woman hours into something far more useful. 

[Bibs]

Trumps' got all the answers for us...

[C8RKH]

On 17/07/2018 at 08:38, Andyww said:

The problem is, although we have an overall trade deficit with the EU, the situation is not the same for each individual country. Its really only Germany which has an interest in trade balance although admittedly they have a lot of sway in the EU.

 

Actually, there are three countries that will be fairly hard hit by a no deal Brexit, they are Ireland, Holland and Belgium.  They have very close and seamless trading with us and they will be hit by between 3.5% (ireland) and 1.5% (Holland) of GDP if we have a full no deal.  That in turn will obviously hit the rest of the EU as, if my understanding is correct the "fee's" paid to the EU by countries is based on their GDP.  Germany has a very strong trading relationship with the UK, cars and engineering mostly, and that will be significantly hit. Don't forget that every pound a German company makes in the UK is worth around 14% more than every Euro it makes elsewhere in the Eurozone. So, a weak pound is not actually in the interests of the European countries either and that is what will be delivered by a no deal Brexit.

It's about time the EU stopped fecking around and seriously got arounmd the table.

We have a clear statement on EU citizens here after Brexit - been here for 5 years you can stay for ever, less than 5 years you can continue to stay and when you get to 5 years you can apply for permanent. Pretty clear and pretty simple to me - what is the EU's offer for UK citizens there?  Correct - there is not one!

Trade - customs unions with no tariffs or reciprocal tariffs and the ability to strike our own deals elsewhere. Sounds fair to me. EU response?  Non.

etc.

The EU are fudging stuff and using the media to stir things up - the morning Raab goes over to meet Barnier they send out a briefing note advising countries to prepare for a hard, no deal Brexit. WTF? Talk about manipulation and under handed dealings.  I will be so glad when we are out. They just cannot be trusted.

[oilmagnet477]

Since when has a reluctant or embittered 'Ex' ever agreed rational terms in a divorce?

The EU lose in us leaving - it is that simple. Hence, the only deal that they will agree to will look like we've stayed in, still paying gazillions to be allowed to play but have NO part in future negotiations on the rules of trade.

I for one voted to stay in BUT only because 1. My kids wanted to stay but didn't get a vote and 2. The cost of leaving would outweigh any perceived benefits. Never mind the 'divorce bill', how much have the last 2 years cost us, even before a deal is struck (or not)?

Having collectively voted to leave, we should have just left on the 24th June 2016 and spent the last 2 years actually achieving something, after the event.

[C8RKH]

25 minutes ago, oilmagnet477 said:

Having collectively voted to leave, we should have just left on the 24th June 2016 and spent the last 2 years actually achieving something, after the event.

Well said. Voice of reason.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

2 hours ago, C8RKH said:

The EU are fudging stuff and using the media to stir things up - the morning Raab goes over to meet Barnier they send out a briefing note advising countries to prepare for a hard, no deal Brexit. WTF?

I work in the UK for a German engineering company, who exports here. The German board of trade for our industry issued all members with a 48 page report on the implications of Brexit from the "softest" to the "hardest" varieties. I won't bore you all with the details, but one thing they are not reckoning on is No Deal! I asked them that if No Deal happens, will WTO tariffs apply to all deliveries to the UK from 01.04.19. They replied that they "expect" some kind of deal, which will enable the transition period until 31.12.20. I don't hold out their optimism. No Deal = No transition period.

If No Deal happens, then my UK customers will be paying about another 5% tariffs from April 2019 onwards. None of them have considered or are aware of this, until I mention it to them. Our leadtime is up to 8 months, so orders placed soon would be affected by this. Some of our competitors have leadtimes of 12 months, so they are potentially already in this situation but haven't told anyone, because no decision has been made. Obviously the German producer isn't going to stump up the difference: it will all come out of the UK buyer's bottom line.

If you're in the EU and want to order a new Lotus: do it soon to ensure it's delivered duty-free before the end of March 2019.

[oilmagnet477]

Overall cost of tariffs to EU companies is surely all but nullified when you take into consideration of the fall in the value of Sterling? 5% is nothing.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

You've  worked it out the wrong way round. We are exporting from Germany to the UK, so the GBP pricing to our UK customers is already 15% higher than pre-referendum June 2016, on top of which would come another 5% in tariffs in April. Not many UK companies can stomach a 20% raw material price increase on high value items just for this reason, irrespective of any commodity price rises that might also apply.

[C8RKH]

That works for end products does it not? However, if you source the raw material from the UK, make it here, then take it back the other way it is cheaper. So maybe the UK becomes a better base for German companies to manufacture finished goods here using materials from here?

Certainly, it would be better for International companies to be based in the UK as when the pound falls the value of their overseas profits increases exponentially - one of the reasons why the FTSE has seen strong growth. Certainly investments since Brexit (spread across UK, EU, BRIC and Asian markets) have performed really really well. no complaints right now from me though possibly getting near the point to switch from stocks etc and move more into defensives around gilts and gold etc.

There will always be winners and losers. We just seem to think we will always lose and focus on the loser....  I'm actually quite happy right now, another reason being that I work for a French company and our sharesave scheme is in Euro's.  it's booming.....

[Andyww]

2 hours ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

If No Deal happens, then my UK customers will be paying about another 5% tariffs from April 2019 onwards.

How do you know that though? The UK government might decide to apply no tariffs at all. (and in fact should). 

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

Then that wouldn't be a No Deal would it? No Deal effectively means WTO rules being introduced. There are international tariff codes for pretty much everything, which would then be levied on imports and exports.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

30 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

That works for end products does it not? However, if you source the raw material from the UK, make it here, then take it back the other way it is cheaper. So maybe the UK becomes a better base for German companies to manufacture finished goods here using materials from here?

But what indigenous raw materials does the UK have nowadays? UK companies still have to buy on the open market: many of these commodities are priced in USD (Oil, Metals etc.) and imported, so a weak GBP increases costs at source.

[C8RKH]

2 minutes ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

But what indigenous raw materials does the UK have nowadays? UK companies still have to buy on the open market: many of these commodities are priced in USD (Oil, Metals etc.) and imported, so a weak GBP increases costs at source.

And how is that different from Germany that just has coal?

[Andyww]

9 minutes ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

Then that wouldn't be a No Deal would it? No Deal effectively means WTO rules being introduced. There are international tariff codes for pretty much everything, which would then be levied on imports and exports.

WTO only specifies a maximum which a country can impose.

Section 133 here:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmintrade/817/81707.htm

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

Just now, C8RKH said:

And how is that different from Germany that just has coal?

It's not different. The Euro hasn't crashed like Sterling since the referendum though, so imported USD commodities have not become so much more expensive to Germans as they are to the UK. A weak GBP is not always good news for UK manufacturers: selling yes, buying no.

6 minutes ago, Andyww said:

WTO only specifies a maximum which a country can impose.

Section 133 here:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmintrade/817/81707.htm

We'll just end up with reciprocal WTO tariffs until such time as we can agree free trade deals with each and every other country that we want to do business with. Until then. the Treasury will win and UK PLC will lose.

[Andyww]

11 minutes ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

 

We'll just end up with reciprocal WTO tariffs until such time as we can agree free trade deals with each and every other country that we want to do business with. Until then. the Treasury will win and UK PLC will lose.

Not necessarily. If we go WTO we have freedom to charge what we want up to the WTO max. There are many arguments in favour of charging nothing, at least initially.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

So we would have WTO tariffs  imposed on products we export to other countries , but not ask anything for tariffs to be imposed on the products we import from those countries? Sounds a bit imbalanced to me.

[C8RKH]

Yup. But it might work.

At the end of the day this is all just an academic exercise as this has not been done before. Funny that most people don't seem to get that.

[Mark Blanchard]

5 hours ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

If No Deal happens, then my UK customers will be paying about another 5% tariffs from April 2019 onwards. None of them have considered or are aware of this, until I mention it to them.

If you're in the EU and want to order a new Lotus: do it soon to ensure it's delivered duty-free before the end of March 2019.

The business I’m in, luxury furniture, is booming at the moment, weird for the summer months as clients are normally away on holiday.  Never seen it like this before.  I can only guess that clients are planning ahead and getting orders in before March 2019.

[C8RKH]

There is money about and it is still being spent. Spent differently granted, but the luxury end of the market still is doing well.  A weak pound hurts us in some ways yes. Essentially the stuff we buy in from overseas is more expensive in general, but as most of that seems to be "non essential" stuff then if you want it you will just need to pay more for it.

However, home grown stuff and products are still the same price - as the famous Mr. Wilson once said in 1967:

"From now the pound abroad is worth 14% or so less in terms of other currencies. It does not mean, of course, that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued. What it does mean is that we shall now be able to sell more goods abroad on a competitive basis."

So, instead of news reports that £ms of soft fruit are going to waste here in the UK, maybe now we will not import the tasteless, inferior strawberries from the Spanish (they really are a very poor shite substitute for our much sweeter and much more flavoursome product) as they are shite and will be more expensive meaning more British strawberries will be sold. So, rather than eating expensive imported stuffed olives, maybe people will eat the seasonal fresh fruit and vegetables that we grow here. It will be cheaper. Will be good for British businesses, better for the environment, better for the economy and better for jobs!  Maybe we get back to basics and stop buying huge quantities of imported "fancy" food stuffs that get wasted and go back to buying basic ingredients and actually cooking, rather than unpacking, our food?

In addition, with stuff being more expensive maybe people will stop buying stuff they don't need because it is cheap and can just be thrown away when they grow tired of it?

I personally do not give a flying fudge if it adds £5k on to the price of an over sold, over hyped, over priced, imported German car. Cars will still be built here and anyway maybe it will get us away from the crazy practice of people believing they MUST HAVE a new car every 2 years, or 3 years or whatever. We export around 800k cars that are made here to the EU. On the other hand, they import some 2.3m cars made in the EU to the UK. In whose best interest is a trade deal? (source: European Automobile Manufacturers Asociation).  Euro11.4bn of automotive parts are imported from the EU to the UK, compared with Euro4bn form the UK to the EU (same source as previous). Again, who will lose out here? These are big sums of money in the car industry alone and the EU car industry needs a strong UK market and economy for these values to continue.

I get that it is not going to be easy. But the constant scare mongering and glass always empty and we're all doomed attitudes have got to change. If you go into a fight expecting to lose, talking yourself into losing, convinced you will lose. Guess what. You will lose!  It ain't rocket science or remarkable psychology that is needed to understand that.

When history looks back, it will not be the Brexiteers that will carry the can for a poor Brexit outcome. History will document and show that it was the bleedin' heart, limp wristed, poor losing Remainers who sabotaged any prospect of a successful outcome with their refusal to accept the democratic vote result their constant whinging and attempts to block any type of deal or progress throughout the whole negotiation time frame.