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Bibs

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My Fresnillo Shares rose by 10% yesterday. Will check them again today but if they hit +25% I will prob sell them then wait for the price to drop again and rebuy them. If they don't drop again then I will buy more Fevertree as they are about to announce above expectation profits :) 

Possibly save your life. Check out this website.
http://everyman-campaign.org/

 

Stop me and buy one!!

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  • 2 weeks later...

The world has gone mad again. Take Bumble, an online dating app. 2.4m paying customers and a profit in 2019 of $68.6m. 2020 saw a 15% yoy growth rate slump and a loss of $116m.

Just been floated on the market at $43 a share, giving it a market valuation of $8bn!!!!!!

However just before market opened it was trading at $76 per share giving it a market worth of some $13bn!!!!

WTF is that all about?    That gives value of $5.5k per paying user. The current cost of a subscription is $24.99 or £300 pa. So at 2.4m users that's revenue of $720m pa assuming they all stay on for a full year and with that revenue it still lost $116m when all it has to do is tweak it's software and pay for marketing basically! The only real asset it has is it's software, and that's basically a crm with a "matching algorithm".

Really struggling to see how this valuation makes any sense at all, even given the "tech factor". What am I missing?

I came into this world screaming and covered in someone elses blood. I'll probably leave it in the same way. 

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2 hours ago, C8RKH said:

The world has gone mad again. Take Bumble, an online dating app. 2.4m paying customers and a profit in 2019 of $68.6m. 2020 saw a 15% yoy growth rate slump and a loss of $116m.

Just been floated on the market at $43 a share, giving it a market valuation of $8bn!!!!!!

However just before market opened it was trading at $76 per share giving it a market worth of some $13bn!!!!

WTF is that all about?    That gives value of $5.5k per paying user. The current cost of a subscription is $24.99 or £300 pa. So at 2.4m users that's revenue of $720m pa assuming they all stay on for a full year and with that revenue it still lost $116m when all it has to do is tweak it's software and pay for marketing basically! The only real asset it has is it's software, and that's basically a crm with a "matching algorithm".

Really struggling to see how this valuation makes any sense at all, even given the "tech factor". What am I missing?

Cheap money is the root cause of all this madness, plus a bit of lockdown boredom, hype and average Joe being conned 

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8 hours ago, C8RKH said:

The world has gone mad again. Take Bumble, an online dating app. 2.4m paying customers and a profit in 2019 of $68.6m. 2020 saw a 15% yoy growth rate slump and a loss of $116m.

Just been floated on the market at $43 a share, giving it a market valuation of $8bn!!!!!!

However just before market opened it was trading at $76 per share giving it a market worth of some $13bn!!!!

WTF is that all about?    That gives value of $5.5k per paying user. The current cost of a subscription is $24.99 or £300 pa. So at 2.4m users that's revenue of $720m pa assuming they all stay on for a full year and with that revenue it still lost $116m when all it has to do is tweak it's software and pay for marketing basically! The only real asset it has is it's software, and that's basically a crm with a "matching algorithm".

Really struggling to see how this valuation makes any sense at all, even given the "tech factor". What am I missing?

The stock price reflects future earnings potential, plus a good dollop of short term profiteering. It'll settle down. 

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2 hours ago, RobinB5 said:

The stock price reflects future earnings potential, plus a good dollop of short term profiteering. It'll settle down. 

Hard to see how a company making a loss of over $100m has "future earnings potential". But seriously, this is the problem. We "used" to value companies on their tangible assets, the strength of their balance sheets and cash reserves, and apply a sensible "multiple for future earnings.  But even at initial offer price the "future potential earnings" we a multiple of 11 times revenues and 100 times 2019 profits.  That's some hedge on future performance to be honest and a huge heap of risk to take on as an investment when basically all you have is a crm, some marketing, and an algorithm.  I think I was right. The world has gone flooking nuts, not just nuts.

I came into this world screaming and covered in someone elses blood. I'll probably leave it in the same way. 

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Making a loss today does not equate to making a loss in the future. And it's the future that is invested in. A company making a loss today might be doing so by massively investing for their future.  Alternatively a company making a loss today might be doing so because their fundamentals are shite. It's all a form of gambling on what you believe will happen in the future. if you want a safe investment try bonds.

This is nothing new. One theory is numeracy was developed to support futures trading in traded crops back in the Neolithic. it's in our nature to take risks and reap the rewards, or die trying.

And sure, these things diverge into busts every couple of decades, but that's just part of the natural cycle.

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@RobinB5 - you're missing my point. I know all of this and the theory. The point I am making is that increasingly valuations are being driven by anything other than common sense.

However, I've not made a loss ever. So, give me all your money and belongings now, and I will possibly give you something back at some point in the future. maybe :)

These days, it is now just a paper game and I do fear that at some point this will all come crashing down around us. I have started to buy gold bars. Physical gold (10g, 50g, 100g). As it's coming lol....

I came into this world screaming and covered in someone elses blood. I'll probably leave it in the same way. 

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@C8RKH, if you want to see a complete lack of common sense and underlying fundamentals, look no further than Bitcoin. Its value based solely on its rarity. The ultimate abstraction of real value. Having said that, it's not going away. Its volatility will be regulated and it's here to stay. 

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With money in the bank earning a paltry amount of interest I've been looking in to shares as well as crypto. Researching Dollar Cost Averaging albeit with pounds instead. However, the world government's money printer has got to stop printing at some point.

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  • 2 months later...

gold copper lithium (not as sexy as crypto) but gold (always the safe bet when things go tits which i think thats where we are going) copper and lithium (given the insane strive toward carbon neutral both a no brainer) but the bigger risk / uplift is in a junior miner rather than the commmodity itself, bigger risk but bigger reward

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  • 2 weeks later...

Bet you're glad you didn't buy them yesterday :lol:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-chinas-crypto-crackdown-helped-spark-a-bitcoin-crash-and-could-feed-a-backlash-11621454947

A friend of mine owns this exchange, they're very good by all accounts...

https://www.bcbitcoin.co.uk/

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For forum issues, please contact the Moderators.

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12 hours ago, Buddsy said:

Ive always used Halifax online share dealing but does anyone have a recommendation where to buy crypto? Ive seen a few places on Google search but wondered if anyone has anywhere they had actually used?

buddsy

I only use 2 exchanges, Coinbase (Pro) and Binance. I've been burned by a bad exchange in the past (Cryptopia) although only lost less than £100 or so.

Not sure if affiliate links are allowed, but here's mine :blush: for Coinbase https://www.coinbase.com/join/rae_os That'll get you (and me ) a whopping £7.05 in free cypto. Note that that is the main Coinbase site which is for more casual of users but has higher fees. Coinbase Pro is the main trading site which has lower fees, and they get lower the more you trade. You can transfer your crypto between Coinbase and Coinbase Pro very easily, good for taking them off the exchange for storage, but use a crypto hard wallet (i.e. Ledger) if you're hodling for a while.

The other exchange which I use for my shitcoins is Binance https://www.binance.com/en/register?ref=L4BIGNYX (10% referral link). Binance has cheaper fees than Coinbase although arguably less users than Coinbase. Fees can be even cheaper if you hold use their in-house crypto BNB (Binance Coin). The user interface for Binance in TradingView mode is much more professional but can be quite intimidating. 

You'll have to go through each site's KYC (Know Your Customer) shenanigans and provide ID etc. 

There's loads of tutorials on youtube on how to use either exchange (Coin Bureau on youtube is good) but feel free to ask if there's anything you want to know.

What's your plan Buddsy? Is it to trade or just to buy and hodl? 

12 hours ago, Bibs said:

Bet you're glad you didn't buy them yesterday :lol:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-chinas-crypto-crackdown-helped-spark-a-bitcoin-crash-and-could-feed-a-backlash-11621454947

A friend of mine owns this exchange, they're very good by all accounts...

https://www.bcbitcoin.co.uk/

Yesterday was a great day to buy the dip! I was actually watching the market it as it happened but held my assets and actually bought more, although sadly not quite at the bottom of the dip. In it for the long haul. Not financial advice!

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