Coronavirus

[C8RKH]

2 hours ago, thebartman said:

Some Trade figures ..

https://tradingeconomics.com/france/exports-to-united-kingdom.  ~USD2.9Bn

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/exports/france. ~USD31Bn

I'm confused, looks like the first figure is average value per month is it not (so 34.8bn per annum) whilst second figure is per annum?  

[Bibs]

This really annoys me. Here's the graph we're seeing all the time, cases. If you look at it, it shows that we had a number of cases which then subdued and has come back much worse and even after a little reprieve is coming back with a vengence...

Here's the number of Covid deaths, a graph I literally never see in the news...

[Barrykearley]

And please bear in mind the deaths within 28 days of being tested. Every single person admitted into any hospital is tested for covid. Hence - every single hospital death is marked as covid.

[SFO]

1 hour ago, Barrykearley said:

And please bear in mind the deaths within 28 days of being tested. Every single person admitted into any hospital is tested for covid. Hence - every single hospital death is marked as covid.

not quite. Every single death with a positive CV19 result is a covid death irrespective of actual cause of death 

so if you are admitted as a result of a serious car crash, test positive and then die due to the injuries sustained, it is recorded as a covid death

[thebartman]

So how can you have a 5-14 day incubation period (i.e. +/- 200% variance), yet still be classified as a Covid death within 28 days of death?

Presumably if 50% of infected people are asymptomatic, that would mean the number of deaths-by-covid are double what they should be - because dead people ARE asymptomatic.

May as well say all people die as a result of their Heart not working. It is true. I don't know of a living soul with a non-beating heart. Wonder what the Beeb would say to that.

 

 

 

[andydclements]

No, the two things ( incubation period, and, COVID-19 related death within 28 days) are completely unrelated.

Incubation period is from when you are exposed until the point at which you then yourself are deemed to have the infection.  The COVID-19 related death could be almost any time after that, since some people may only be infected for a few days, some may be weeks.

 

 

Asymptomatic and incubation period are unrelated. Asymptomatic is that you are infected (to an extent that it can be detected) but don't show symptoms of the disease.

[Kimbers]

And I can understand people dying so long after having it. I had it early March and still suffer from headaches, neck and muscle pain, exhaustion and Panic attacks which I have never had before I had covid

[march]

2 hours ago, Kimbers said:

And I can understand people dying so long after having it. I had it early March and still suffer from headaches, neck and muscle pain, exhaustion and Panic attacks which I have never had before I had covid

I had it in March as well and suffered from chronic fatigue over the summer and autumn, I could do about 3 hours a day at a push and if I tried to do a full days work I was in bed for the next two, not a lot of fun really. A lot of work on the farm was abandoned along with our hay harvest, this has cost us thousands and we got f'all from the government. Things are a lot better now and I am trying to build my stamina back up but it does seem to come back and bite now and again. The really annoying thing was that when it is mentioned no-one believes you - I am sure they thought I was just a lazy wotname.

[rjwooll]

16 minutes ago, march said:

I had it in March as well and suffered from chronic fatigue over the summer and autumn, I could do about 3 hours a day at a push and if I tried to do a full days work I was in bed for the next two, not a lot of fun really. A lot of work on the farm was abandoned along with our hay harvest, this has cost us thousands and we got f'all from the government. Things are a lot better now and I am trying to build my stamina back up but it does seem to come back and bite now and again. The really annoying thing was that when it is mentioned no-one believes you - I am sure they thought I was just a lazy wotname.

Don’t know if this might help, but my wife has used a cranial osteopath for years. Don’t be misled by the words ‘cranial’ or ‘osteopath’ - he treats whole body conditions as well and when my wife last saw him he said that he had successfully treated several patients for long Covid symptoms such as you gents describe.
 

Cheers, Richard

[rjwooll]

19 hours ago, Bibs said:

This really annoys me. Here's the graph we're seeing all the time, cases. If you look at it, it shows that we had a number of cases which then subdued and has come back much worse and even after a little reprieve is coming back with a vengence...

Here's the number of Covid deaths, a graph I literally never see in the news...

Agreed Bibs, that chart of cases is very misleading. Earlier this year there was no mass testing so the infections reported only related to those people testing positive after presenting with symptoms. Now we are doing mass testing and the more you do, the more infections you will find. They should not be counted as cases until people require treatment, in order to make the figures comparable with earlier in the year.

[thebartman]

I'm going shopping tomorrow - Sat 19th Dec 2020 (for the record, GCHQ) , in my TE until the petrol runs out. 

My nearest  Supermarket would therefore appear to be  about 125 miles away ( on 3/4 tank).

Would leave me enough juice to let her idle safely afterward, whilst I put said shopping in fridge etc.

Unless shopping for food is not an essential journey ?

 

[PaulCP]

This graph also further supports @Bibspoint above

 

If our so called “journalists” weren’t so stuck in the mode of “let’s keep bashing the govt” and could muster up an ounce of intelligence between them, they might just realise that there are some important questions which they should be asking of these scientists etc 

[Colin P]

This is the graph I use and is most indicative. The problem with the death graph is delay and also whether they are genuine CIVID deaths, so probably too positive. The positive test graph is as said a factor of increased testing, but also skewed by the school age transmission, accepting that this affects other age groups by transmission it clearly does overstate.
 

The key thing however is that there is an increase in the number of people needing hospital treatment. This is not good and is a reliable indicator that things are getting worse again. 

[SFO]

4 minutes ago, Colin P said:

The key thing however is that there is an increase in the number of people needing hospital treatment. This is not good and is a reliable indicator that things are getting worse again. 

Agree total numbers in hospital for CV19 is the best metric

• 1 Nov: 12,200
• 15 Nov: 16,829
• 1 Dec: 16,230
• 16 Dec: 18,469

 

[thebartman]

What a surprise @Colin P,

More people get together; a virus spreads. 

My Prediction:-

Current Tier 3 areas move to full lockdown 4th Jan 2021 - for 4 weeks (min),  and schools have to do remote teaching and full covid testing/tracing 'cos under 20's are spreaders.

Current Tier 2 areas move to Tier 3 4th Jan 2021, again, with schools implementing testing /tracing etc. 'cos now oldies have caught CV19 from kids from previous "festive season"

Feb (possibly March ) 2021, another national lockdown, as all workers now infected form Xmas/new Year restrictions arrive at A&E etc.

 

[andydclements]

I was thinking worse (more stringent) than that, with national lockdown by late Jan.

The Christmas relaxation will have combined with natural stupidity exacerbated by alcohol, and we'll have several areas where hospitals (mainly the critical care parts) don't have enough capacity, that means they move patients to other hospitals but as the nearby ones will also be full, it will be moving to parts of the country with much lower hospitalisation levels. That then leads to "we must protect the NHS" and so national lockdown.

Late Jan  is based on, mixing starts in earnest 23rd Dec (some will already but focus on the stupid rather than deliberate) and add 1-2 weeks for incubation, so symptomatic infected really ramps up by end 1st week Jan, then those patients health deteriorates over a week or so, give Government half week to decide then give half week's notice.

 

Oh, and Bojo says "I told you small and short, now look what you've done." Not accepting any responsibility for setting high expectations of what will be possible and then a half-hearted partial retraction.

 

[Dan E]

I know of 5 people I know this week who have got confirmed Covid, that may rise as there are a few tests awaiting results,   first time around during the whole lockdown 2 people. 

As much as would happily drown Keir Stammer what he said today is correct, you can't trust the public to be sensible (they found 100 odd people in a basement below a hairdressing salon in Soho this week, i mean WTF if just one had it, in there bunch of twunts!!) 

I have the MIL coming for Christmas Day, she is 91, she is in our support bubble but i am nervous about it, its one f*&king day. I said to her this is totally your decision not ours. The normal big family Christmas at my sisters is cancelled. There will be an absolutely massive spike in Jan and I predict Boris wont survive this! 

I am going to have another glass of wine 

[Chillidoggy]

9 minutes ago, Dan E said:

I know of 5 people I know this week who have got confirmed Covid, that may rise as there are a few tests awaiting results,   first time around during the whole lockdown 2 people. 

As much as would happily drown Keir Stammer what he said today is correct, you can't trust the public to be sensible (they found 100 odd people in a basement below a hairdressing salon in Soho this week, i mean WTF if just one had it, in there bunch of twunts!!) 

I have the MIL coming for Christmas Day, she is 91, she is in our support bubble but i am nervous about it, its one f*&king day. I said to her this is totally your decision not ours. The normal big family Christmas at my sisters is cancelled. There will be an absolutely massive spike in Jan and I predict Boris wont survive this! 

I am going to have another glass of wine 

Any chance you could entertain my mother for Christmas? It’d save me a lot of hassle. She doesn’t bite like Sparky’s MIL.

Thanks mate, I knew I could count on you.

[Dan E]

I am running a shuttle to the Watford Exotics residence on 25th morning for any Mother or Mother in Laws at a loose end. This is a free service, sign up at www.sparklesdoeschristmas.co.uk 

[andydclements]

@Dan E, I know how you feel.

My Mum will be seeing her other son and DIL (not in the support bubble due to DIL being teaching assistant and Granddaughter working in local hospital), and granddaughter with her 2 children, but ONY SEEING. It will be via a window, or if the weather is reasonable then perhaps at a doorway with them a couple of metres away. 

She gets her 1st inoculation next week, so hopefully will get some immunity by late Jan, so if that makes it possible to see the others more often (but still take precautions) the it's only a month of delay. OK, it's Christmas but she didn't get to see her brothers etc at Christmas when she was alive during WW2, and that conflict was several times more likely to kill people.

 

[Dan E]

@andydclements what do you do? She has not left the house since March apart from we had her for lunch during the first lockdown in the garden and the wife has taken her out for a couple of coffees in the local park. 

We are keeping it down to say 3 hours, we are going to do social distancing as much as practicable. I would rather the government said no-one can mix. We have all been in isolation as my son is having his tonsils out tomorrow (nice for him as it is his 16th birthday on Christmas Day and we had to go private because NHS wouldn't even give us a date for a consultation) 

Oh i don't know i am not intelligent enough to know what to do!! I will have another glass of wine and have a think 

 

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, SFO said:

Agree total numbers in hospital for CV19 is the best metric

• 1 Nov: 12,200
• 15 Nov: 16,829
• 1 Dec: 16,230
• 16 Dec: 18,469

 

Not sure where these numbers have come from - or the context. But people in hospital are routinely tested on admission. Certainly in Worcestershire - anyone in hospital who’s tested positive is counted as in hospital with covid. It’s absolutely irrelevant why they are there - so you could argue it’s being misrepresented.

let’s face it - no matter what - with the amount of money the government have chucked around on this - it’s absolutely in their interest to inflate the figures and show the vaccine as the saviour.

[march]

[SFO]

3 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Not sure where these numbers have come from - or the context.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

[Barrykearley]

Seek the facts @SFO and you may find the truth....

so if you are indeed in hospital for any reason - and you are tested positive - you will indeed be part of the BBC scaremonger scheme