Coronavirus

[tom kilner]

3 hours ago, andydclements said:

Facebook be consumed by "Vaccine causes autism" ?

I don't think the antivaxers are objecting to this one yet - maybe when immunity is up to 80%, but not before. 😂

[C8RKH]

5 hours ago, PaulCP said:

Back on the subject of our crap media journalists & their ridiculous and repetitive daily questions (stolen from a friend’s Facebook post))

*Hancock calls briefing, says we've created world-saving vaccine*

BBC: Will you apologise for not creating it sooner?

ITV: Isn't it true that it contains dead kittens?

C4: Why didn't you join an EU vaccination scheme?

Sky: You said creating a vaccine would be difficult, do you now accept that you weren't telling the truth?

Buzzfeed: 37 reasons why the UK is still a shit country

Independent: Isn't it true that austerity stopped the vaccine being made sooner?

Guardian: Vaccines are racist

SNP: It's all Westminsters fault and the bastard English are refusing to share the vaccine and prioritising their own people first

 

Fixed that for you

[pete]

1 hour ago, scotty435 said:

15,000 people a day are still arriving at British airports and none are tested. Your point?

Same as yours

[Colin P]

14 hours ago, C8RKH said:

19 hours ago, PaulCP said:

Back on the subject of our crap media journalists & their ridiculous and repetitive daily questions (stolen from a friend’s Facebook post))

*Hancock calls briefing, says we've created world-saving vaccine*

BBC: Will you apologise for not creating it sooner?

ITV: Isn't it true that it contains dead kittens?

C4: Why didn't you join an EU vaccination scheme?

Sky: You said creating a vaccine would be difficult, do you now accept that you weren't telling the truth?

Buzzfeed: 37 reasons why the UK is still a shit country

Independent: Isn't it true that austerity stopped the vaccine being made sooner?

Guardian: Vaccines are racist

SNP: It's all Westminsters fault and the bastard English are refusing to share the vaccine and prioritising their own people first

Labour: It's taken us 5 months to elect someone else to lead us who is still an un-electable moron, but even we would have found a vaccine quicker by paying every unemployed person in the UK or who wants to come to the UK to work on it, and we'd have given them free broadband to help

 

Fixed that for you

Apparently the conference carried on....

Incidentally, am I the only one who thinks that Raab has handled himself really well filling in. I can see him becoming a future leadership contender. Watch out Boris.

nb that wasn't supposed to come across as a Tory fan boy  

[PaulCP]

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

Did anyone see the ITN piece of Greece yesterday? Apparently only 127 confirmed CV-19 deaths for a population of 11 million. Some days no reported deaths at all and Coronavirus may be gone by next month (until the tourists return!).

It seems that those countries who locked down early and hard are seeing the benefits now. Here's the link.

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-23/how-greece-has-emerged-an-unlikely-success-story-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

[scotty435]

 

[C8RKH]

2 hours ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

Did anyone see the ITN piece of Greece yesterday? Apparently only 127 confirmed CV-19 deaths for a population of 11 million

How can a population that size get itself in so much debt, so quickly, that it almost causes the fall of the Eurozone? I mean that's roughly the population of Greater London!

Also, you are comparing countries that have vastly different attributes - Greece has a population of c10.6m compared with UK at c66.6m. The population density of Greece is 82 people per km2, compared to the UK's, which is over 3.5 times more dense at 281 people per km2. The denser the population the more likely you are to come in to contact with someone who has the disease, the bigger the propensity for the disease to spread. Also our density is even higher in our cities, I mean Athens is only 660k people. The next largest is 340k then it drops significantly. A large portion of Greece's citizens truly live a rural life whereas in the UK we are City/Town based in the vast majority. So hardly apples for aples comparison - oh sorry, I forgot, the UK press does not care about that as it does not give them the right headlines. 

So yes, Greece had a much smaller problem in every respects, so handled it better. But their strategy was also born out of necessity as their health service has been completely trashed and was absolutely not able to cope with any form of a pandemic and so they needed to move quickly, with a totalitarian lock down, or face a catastrophic failure. They also have the weakest economy in the Eurozone and are teetering on bankruptcy. Again, they could not afford to deal with a pandemic so had to move radically and fast. Oh and actually, I really do question the ability of the Greek government or anyone to gather effective, timely, stats given the rural nature of their citizens

So on one measure, oh look, Greece did a great job compared to UK and others. But that's hardly saying they got it right and we got it wrong is it?  Not knocking a great result for Greece, more getting tired of the comparisons between apples and bananas and apples winning because they are round and bananas are not!

However, tomorrows headlines will be pointing out just what a superb job the Gibraltarian and Madagascan governments have been doing and how we should all be following their heroic, best practice, examples! A classic occasion when "nil points" in a Euro competition is a good thing! :)     (Note: chart was updated 24/04)

 

 

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

I wouldn’t read too much into that pie chart either. We haven’t tested anything like the number of people who have caught it. Basically it’s the hospital intake, some NHS staff plus a few others. I think deaths per million population would be a better comparison, but we won’t know that for a long time, if ever. Anyway I’ve still not been further than walking distance from my home for the past 33 days, so I’m a good boy.

[Neal H]

The U.K. media also likes to portray the USA (well, Trump specifically) negatively. Lots of headlines about the US having the largest number of deaths etc and negativity around how they’re dealing with it. Yet the US has a larger population than the whole of Europe combined and a lower death rate. It’s a real shame that the media always seems to have an agenda other than just independent reporting.

The one outstanding exception between country death rates (in the western world) is Germany. Hopefully when this is over, lessons can be learned from how they achieved this. Although given that the last pandemic was 100 years ago it’s probably not practical to plan too much for the next one!

[C8RKH]

1 hour ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

I wouldn’t read too much into that pie chart either. We haven’t tested anything like the number of people who have caught it. Basically it’s the hospital intake, some NHS staff plus a few others. I think deaths per million population would be a better comparison, but we won’t know that for a long time, if ever. Anyway I’ve still not been further than walking distance from my home for the past 33 days, so I’m a good boy.

I was using it tongue in cheek (hence the comments re Gib and Mad) to show just how much bullshit is circulating right now and how stats, damned stats, lies and poorly thought through observations and comparisons are being used instead of hard analysis and comparisons that are much more factual, evidence based, and relevant comparisons.

59 minutes ago, Neal H said:

Although given that the last pandemic was 100 years ago it’s probably not practical to plan too much for the next one!

Due to weather, pollution, and population growth across all instances we are seeing that what once were 1 in 200, 1 in 100, 1 in 50, 1 in 25 etc events are occurring at an increasing frequency. This is putting our critical infrastructures around health, transport, utilities etc sat increasing risk of failure. My point would be we don't have 100 years now to learn the lesson, it is probably going to be max 50 years at best, but most likely to be a 1 in 25 year event now.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

We’ll be in pole position for the next pandemic. Hundreds of tonnes of PPE, Nightingale Hospitals across the country, Care Homes prepped for action, Testing locations at every Ikea, ventilators for every hospital bed, NHS staff being paid more than Bankers, toilet paper in every store cupboard. Bring It On!

[C8RKH]

I thought Corbyn had been replaced by Starmer. Oh, nothing changed. OK. Got it.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

By the way. Probably a stupid question, but why can’t we just wash PPE as laundry and re-use if simple soap kills the virus anyway?

[andydclements]

Much of it is designed to be single use, so not robust enough to wash, or not proven to be robust enough to wash and then still be effective.

1 hour ago, Neal H said:

The U.K. media also likes to portray the USA (well, Trump specifically) negatively. Lots of headlines about the US having the largest number of deaths etc and negativity around how they’re dealing with it. Yet the US has a larger population than the whole of Europe combined and a lower death rate. It’s a real shame that the media always seems to have an agenda other than just independent reporting.

The one outstanding exception between country death rates (in the western world) is Germany. Hopefully when this is over, lessons can be learned from how they achieved this. Although given that the last pandemic was 100 years ago it’s probably not practical to plan too much for the next one!

The number of deaths isn't really about population, it's more closely related to the rate of increase. 

start with one infected person, who passes it on to two people (I know the infection rate was 1.5 but maths is easier), they pass on to 4, who pass on to 8 etc. Until you reach the total population the actual population doesn't really come into it.  That's why the most effective measure is taken by base lining at time0=when a set number of cases / deaths had been reached, and counting from there.

[Bibs]

[pete]

is dying with corona virus the same as dying of corona virus  as far as the stats are concerned

[tom kilner]

 Dying with coronavirus in hospital is what we are counting.

Just wait till we include dying with coronavirus in a nursing home.

It's hard to compare stats from different countries- ultimately we'll look at the rise in the death rate compared to 2019 across different countries,... excepting those whose figures are compiled entirely by the state.

Given we maintain nuclear armed submarines (I think one still works) at 2 billion a year, we can probably maintain stocks of ppe for the next pandemic.

We could store them in a disused football stadium.

10 hours ago, Neal H said:

The U.K. media also likes to portray the USA (well, Trump specifically) negatively.

It's not the usa, it's just trump and his cronies.

 

 

[mayevora]

Cheers 👍😎

[yeller77]

4 hours ago, C8RKH said:

I was using it tongue in cheek (hence the comments re Gib and Mad) to show just how much bullshit is circulating right now and how stats, damned stats, lies and poorly thought through observations and comparisons are being used instead of hard analysis and comparisons that are much more factual, evidence based, and relevant comparisons.

Due to weather, pollution, and population growth across all instances we are seeing that what once were 1 in 200, 1 in 100, 1 in 50, 1 in 25 etc events are occurring at an increasing frequency. This is putting our critical infrastructures around health, transport, utilities etc sat increasing risk of failure. My point would be we don't have 100 years now to learn the lesson, it is probably going to be max 50 years at best, but most likely to be a 1 in 25 year event now.

The big question is, will the lessons be learned? There was a major opportunity to create a treatment and vaccination strategy around 10 years ago with SARS-CoV that apparently went unheeded even in China where coronavirus research has been ongoing for decades (I don't want to get into the "secret lab" debate at this point). SARS, MERS coronaviruses have a host of similarities for vaccination strategies that apparently took a pandemic to now stimulate in record time where no one had the foresight (or financial backing) to pursue. There are going to be numerous sociologist, epidemiologist, infectious disease, economist "experts" who are going to make their careers over this and they darn well better earn their pay in developing realistic strategies for the future. Who knows, an organized strategy simply of public mask use, social distance, testing and contact tracking, and frequent sanitization, most of which we preach but don't do with regard to influenza which kills many thousands per year, may have been sufficient to mitigate spread without shutting down economies and creating unemployment numbers not seen since the Depression. I agree that at this point we have no idea as to the true incidence and exposure of the disease as 80-90% are without symptoms and the reporting of "cases" is useless as it merely escalates due to testing of less symptomatic people becoming more widespread. Right now I'm just glad I can now find toilet paper and getting my hair cut may be only a week or so away thus avoiding resorting to the man-bun (apologies to those with man-buns). 😅

[SFO]

10 hours ago, C8RKH said:

Oh and actually, I really do question the ability of the Greek government or anyone to gather effective, timely, stats given the rural nature of their citizens

 

 

Greece fiddled its books to get into the Euro, and also cooked its books to hide the true scale of borrowing .. leading to the mess they are in now

I would not trust Greek statistics 

 

[ramjet]

So are they talking about easing restrictions where you live?

People want them to here in Victoria, but the government is standing pretty firm.

I can't help but think that if they do, people will not comply with the still in place social distancing laws and we will be in for round 2.

The NSW government opened 3 beaches in Sydney and had to close them down again since 'you may use the beach for exercise' apparently means to some people, 'go and sunbake and play around with your kids' and Bob's your uncle.

[andydclements]

UK message still seems to be we're not ready to ease lockdown. Press seem to be starting to make a big think that emergency-built hospitals are not being used / not near capacity, which seems right in that they were there in case the lockdown didn't flatten the curve soon enough and low enough.

[Chillidoggy]

The problem with early release from lockdown.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-52305055

[andydclements]

At the moment they are saying that there's no evidence that recovery from it gives you immunity. That's not to say there isn't immunity, just that there's no proof but it does appear that some who've had it have been re-infected (or not fully recovered and it was originally a false-clear).

 

That is why the lockdown is still needed, else  be prepared for Spain/Italy style lack of sufficient intensive care beds/ ventilators, and the straightforward loss of life for those who may recover if ventilated.