Missing Air Malaysia Plane

[Kimbers]

I used to fly Air Malaysia all the time when I lived out in KL. 

 

But I don't understand how a plane can just disappear. I'm sure Sparky can tell us better but surely, if it crashed into the sea there would be debris. If not surely there's a marker or something? 

 

And if they put down and landed well so there wasn't any debris surely there would be life rafts?

 

If it had been blown up by terrorists again there would be debris.

 

It's really wierd!

[Bibs]

Some of the passengers phones are still ringing and are logged into social networks. That makes it sound like they've been hijacked and landed somewhere. Phones would only be doing this if they were within range of a cell, can't imagine why they've not csi'd to find out where they are yet?

 

If they'd crashed, there would be some debris and they've searched 200 miles of the last known position, you can't fly that far when something's broken even from 10 miles up in the air. 

[ramjet]

Liz was just saying tonight that she thinks the plane has been landed somewhere as well. However, you need a fairly substantial runway to land a fully loaded passenger plane. It can't just be a track cut in the scrub.

If it was an airport, why hasn't something been released?

If it was hijacked and landed at some disused airfield, why hasn't there been some sort of ransom or demand etc?

 

It is weird and things don't seem to add up at the moment.

[Sparky]

This incident stinks for all kinds of reasons. I'm busy at work at the mo, so will add detailed thoughts later, but we're not getting the whole story.

[Bibs]

Lost?

[Kimbers]

I agree. And I heard last night that the USA could know where it is but are not able to say because they would have to reveal sources and that may get them in trouble (spy satellite etc).

 

I suppose it could have been hijacked, flown over land and crashed. That may be why it's not in the search grid and why the phones are ringing!

[ramjet]

Lost?

 

The Others have all of them.

 

 

The transponder appears to have been disabled or they would have had data giving it's altitude as low if it disappeared off radar at the same time as the plane crashed. (I think transponders send altitude?)

 

Don't they have radar that can track aircraft even without transponders?

[Mark Blanchard]

Malaysian authorities have said they know something but can't say.  That's not helping the situation.  Maybe they're talking to hijackers?

 

And if the phones are ringing, phone Engineers should be able to identify which mobile towers the devises are connecting too.

 

This is boggling my mind.

[Kimbers]

It is truly weird!

[frizz]

Aliens?

[Mark Blanchard]

This website tracked the plane till the aircraft transponders stopped working.

 

http://www.flightradar24.com

 

http://www.flightradar24.com/#flight/mh370?&_suid=1394560227890007779554447888898

 

Edited March 11, 2014 by Mark B

[molemot]

From the Flightradar website, it seems to have wandered off course to the east and have been heading towards Ho Chi Min City.... and have been over land when the transponder stopped updating, too. The whole thing is truly weird....

[Sparky]

Some scattergun points, in no particular order:

 

I think the B777 is statistically the safest aircraft type ever produced (B787/A380 don't count yet) with only 3 lives lost in its history (Asiana, SFO, pilot error).  The likelihood of catastrophic failure, leaving no time to send a distress call, is unlikely.

 

Malaysian seem to have waited a significant amount of time before reporting loss of the A/C.  The trickle of information from civilian and military sources since has been patchy and questionable.

 

If the A/C transponder ceased to transmit, it would continue to produce an unidentified radar return (unless very low altitude).  Certainly an issue for civilian ATC, maybe not so much for the military as they wouldn't be overly concerned with its course as long as it wasn't in the way.  However, a civilian A/C that suddenly stopped its transponder, then changed course, would be a risk item of major interest to the authorities, and would be carefully tracked (if possible) and challenged.  The fact that this information wasn't public knowledge on the day is very strange.

 

So, 4 days later, we seem to have learned the following (may not be accurate):

 

Transponder ceased to transmit, but MH seem to have kept this quiet for several hours.

A/C apparently changed course, but this info wasn't released for some time.

2 Iranians were on board with stolen European passports (now apparently ruled out as terrorists).

5 individuals checked in but failed to make it to the gate (bags offloaded) - not overly unusual, but 5 is more than normal.

No news of ELT (Emergency Location Transmitter) broadcasts.

No wreckage located after 4 days of SAR.

 

Here's a poser:  If a widebody took off from LHR, turned off its transponder 2 hours later, then turned back to the UK with no communication, what do you think would be the military response in a post-9/11 world?

 

And another: would it be possible today to land a widebody somewhere off the grid and hide it?

 

Or are we just seeing an incredible combination of bad luck that resulted in major electrical failure wiping out all comms/nav systems and an attempt to return to base?

 

I'm suggesting nothing; I'm just bemused at the way this is panning out.  Never seen anything like it.

[Advantage]

So it's either at the bottom of the sea with no visible debris (unlikely unless it really did splash down unseen hundreds of miles away from its intended flightpath and lead strapped to anything and everything) or it's in a field under cammo netting somewhere in China, very close to a freshly dug mass grave.

[slewthy]

 

Or are we just seeing an incredible combination of bad luck that resulted in major electrical failure wiping out all comms/nav systems and an attempt to return to base?

 

 

Is that possible? Sorry, I'll rephrase that,I'm sure its possible. How (un)likely is that?- how many redundant systems should prevent it?

 

I can see Ockham's razor coming out soon....

[Andy Esprit SE]

It didn't take this long to find the air France plane that disappeared over the Atlantic? That one had an air speed fault so crashed into the sea, something definately going on, in some respects if it is terrorists and has been shot down then it may also become an air speed fault that lead to it crashing into the sea? Too many moral questions if they shot it down.

[Sparky]

It's INCREDIBLY unlikely that multiple simultaneous failures could strip the aircraft of comms, stability and navigation, unless it was premeditated.

[slewthy]

So, exploring the possibility of foul-play ie hijack - was this a good spot to do it? Terrain/population/radar coverage etc?

 

Because if it is not a good spot to choose, it would make that scenario less likely.

 

What about a hijack gone wrong - take over plane, turn off relevant equipment, fly a bit then crash for some reason. How possible is to achieve all that would be necessary without some kind of distress signal?

 

Didn't someone steal an airliner about 10 years ago for it never to be found?

 

Last question (for a bit)  -how close do you need to be to be able to pick up a black box ping? 

[Mark Blanchard]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/malaysia/10691089/Malaysia-Airlines-mystery-US-issued-warnings-over-Boeing-777-weak-spot.html

[Stirling_Villeneuve]

Hmmm..... that would explain the rapid disappearance but no wreckage and anyway, what was the plane doing flying off course? 

[Sparky]

Yeah, there's been a lot of chat about that, Mark.  But the A/C was in check only a couple of weeks ago, apparently, and all of this would have been examined closely.  I'll be flying on a B777 Friday, and have absolutely no qualms about this; it's just a bit more media scaremongering.

 

Flight deck entry procedure is now very different.  It's not beyond the realms of possibility to achieve entry with significant violence, but this should give the crew time to report a hijack attempt.

 

Any ping is difficult under water due to attenuation, so you'd need to be pretty close to the A/C to get a reading. On land things will be better, but the terrain around there is pretty rough.

 

I can understand transponder loss due to something catastrophic, but evience points to this A/C changing course and in flight for some time AFTER going off the grid.

[Dunc]

There seems to have been some confusion as to when contact was lost with the plane. Initially they said 02:40 am, then later changed it to 01:30am (which fits in with its transponder disappearance). They are now suggesting military radar picked up a 777 flying over a small island in the Malacca straight (in the other side of Malaysia going towards Sumatra) and that military radar id's a plane based on its shape??

 

Intriguingly, at around the time of their radar sighting over this island, flightradar24 shows a KLM 777 (KLM836) flying in that area.

 

This is getting a bit weird. Surely they can't loose a plane, and nobody notices for a while, then nobody is sure where it was last seen?

[ramjet]

I've been asking people at work "So where do you think the plane is?"

 

The general consensus with most is that it has crashed, but if you look at all the scenarios, you keep getting an answer that doesn't make sense.

 

Transponder dies = tower/plane call, but that didn't happen as there was no radio contact with the plane after it disappeared off radar. Then there are the numerous stories of it going this way or that way and being tracked or not being tracked.

 

Massive system failures = crash = debris, but there isn't any (yet) and it is being reported that the plane kept flying for over an hour.

 

Hijack = ransom or political demands, but there haven't been any. Yet.

 

Hijack = possibly a suicide mission ala 9/11, but again no debris. Yet.

 

System failures resulting in plane landing in ocean (ala Hudson River) = distress call possibly (which there wasn't) & survivors, but none have been found. Yet.

 

Rogue pilot = see hijack

 

Pilot suicide = again no debris. Yet.

 

Why would no-one attempt to use their mobile? Even if the mobiles would not work at that altitude due to speed past towers etc, the towers would have records of the phones polling the tower.

 

The S&R area is enormous and has been expanded again.

 

Things just don't add up to me.

[Kimbers]

Sparky, is it possible, in todays world, that the plane was hijacked and transponders turned off and it wasn't monitored? Could it be that it was flown way off flight path and then possibly crashed in some remote part of Asia and that's why it hasn't been seen? I hear what you say about flight crew proceedures and even the 9/11 pilots got messages out in most cases (or you could hear the fight going on).

 

If it has been "taken" could it be in North Korea possibly?

 

Lastly, and I know this is wierd, could something have happened that even the authorities are trying to make sense of? Hence the delays, wierd half truths etc? they do say, once you have eliminated all the likely scenarios, then what you are left with, no matter how unlikely, is what happened! 

[Bibs]

North Korea wouldn't have the balls and I don't think they've a beef with Malaysia anyway. 

 

Ramjet ASAIK towers don't transmit 10 miles upwards so if they're ringing they're more than likely on the ground and within range of a cell tower, more than likely in a sack out of reach of the owners, that makes sense of that. I can't think of another explanation as the phones register often with the towers so if they were out of range they'd go to voicemail, same as they send the network an on/off signal so it knows when to send calls straight to voicemail too.