Future of Lotus

[NedaSay]

In general, EV cars and batteries are going to be a problem in the short term...  However in terms of packaging and weight pure EV beats Hybrid every single time.

When it comes to supercar that dictates low gravity and mass centering, the best if not the only way for them not to be a major driving hindrance is to locate them as low as possible, so under the floor and/or immediately behind the driver and passenger seats. Which means that if you think of service them, you have two options ; either you service them from the under carriage side or the cockpit side - if you remove the seats and carpet, either way and you make them serviceable by having a removable - bolted on - sheet of carbon, which as a result means that the skate is not as rigid as it would be if the cells were encapsulated and single use only, which is not that big a problem if you have a very small production batch with a VVIP concierge in charge of organizing the service of said cars... 

 

[C8RKH]

I've said it before and I will repeat it again. EV's on their own are merely a transitory technology and a reason to push battery exploration and innovation.

The real commercial future will, I believe be in Hydrogen powered hybrids. Why?

1. The cost and complexities with rolling out national infrastructure to support the charging of EV's at scale is too high - it will cost upwards of £30bn-£40bn in the UK alone to support and there is little real appetite to pay for it

2. The conditions on the UK streets are not conducive to large scale deployment of EV's charging posts and they remain open to "blockage" (so you can't access them), vandalism, etc. The vast majority of people in the UK do live in the country or "private housing estates" with space - they live in congested streets and estates where parking is a battle, not a right

3. Despite the increases in range, the range of pure EV's is still insufficient for a longer commute or journey (say 100 miles each way, plus leaving the car not on a charger for a few days) to get over the range anxiety for many

4. As the TESLA Model S shows, the cars can be phenomenally quick, but only for a few short bursts and then the batteries heat and they need to recover. Not going to be a hoon or track day weapon any real day soon then

5. The biggie - habit!  People are not used to having to plan ahead for their journeys, they are used to the convenience of just jumping into a vehicle, starting, it, driving off and when they need more fuel just putting it in, quickly, usually at the same 5 minute stop having a pee, getting a coffee and a yorkie bar! Even with fast chargers of 20 minutes as the number of EV's grows the chances are your wait will grow.

So for me, the real alternative will be Hydrogen hybrids.  Hydrogen pumps will be added to current forecourts much like LPG was (indeed, probably replacing the LPG ones) and with Hydrogen cars already capable of a range in excess of 300 miles they will be combined with a hybrid electrical engine/recovery system to provide a total range of around 500-650 miles from a single fill-up and no need for thousands items of additional street furniture to be installed, of holes to be dug in roads, etc etc.

EV's will be like the betamax video - a short term technology winner that was first outdone by the volume ease of VHS and then by a different technology (CD's/DVD's).

Hydrogen is coming - the most abundant element on earth. no need to mine/extract it in one country to export to another. More self sufficiency and less political risk due to fuel crisis caused by war/politics etc.  The only thing holding it back right now is the fear of destabilization that it might cause in areas such as Africa, South America, the US and the Middle East through the shift away from black carbon based fuels.

[CharlieBrown]

Any of you guys in the UK knows when the base 2019 Evora 400 comes out?

[NedaSay]

Uh I don't think they are planning a 2019 400, as far as I know the GT 410 Sport is the new base model.

[CharlieBrown]

hmm

[PAR]

6 minutes ago, CharlieBrown said:

Any of you guys in the UK knows when the base 2019 Evora 400 comes out?

29th of Feb.

[CharlieBrown]

HAHAHA

On 19/02/2019 at 08:59, CharlieBrown said:

So Only 2 years in the US for the Evora 400...perhaps the price of used ones will start going up? I'd like that! hahaha

Well, all the Lotus websites still has the Evora 400 listed as one of their models.

[MPx]

7 hours ago, C8RKH said:

I've said it before and I will repeat it again. EV's on their own are merely a transitory technology and a reason to push battery exploration and innovation.

The real commercial future will, I believe be in Hydrogen powered hybrids.

You make a well argued case Andy.  As an EV owner I also frequent a forum of theirs.  The evangelists there are very evangelical and I've seen many put downs of the Hydrogen power verses battery power.  I've no knowledge myself, but have cross posted one of the better argued positions on hydrogen albeit put in a slightly different context in answer to the "why not wait for hydrogen?" reason to not buy electric.  Do you find it convincing?  I'm intrigued about the argument on how hard it is to get hold of the admittedly abundant hydrogen around the planet - that, if true, sounds like a killer to me.

Why not wait for hydrogen?
You'll probably have heard that hydrogen is "less efficient", but let's put that in real terms. Clean hydrogen is made with electricity (again you may have heard "hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe!" - but it's always attached to something and requires energy to separate). Because it's so inefficient, you need three times as much electricity to drive a mile in a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle than an electric vehicle. This means that on most electricity mixes, an HFCV produces more CO2 than a combustion-engined vehicle. You can produce it from renewables, sure, but you'd get three times as many miles from putting that electricity into a battery instead.

But most hydrogen isn't produced cleanly, and is made by steam reformation of natural gas. Being a fossil fuel, this means CO2 is produced as a byproduct. This is why hydrogen tends to be eulogised by petrochemical companies and countries with lots of natural gas deposits, because they stand to make a lot of money by exporting gas if it becomes the oil of the future.

There are also cost issues - the main reason we haven't seen hydrogen take off, despite some reasonable cars being on the market, is that filling stations are exorbitantly expensive. It would take £20bn just to make enough electrolysers to fuel all the country's car miles, before accounting for all the electricity generation required, storage and kiosk facilities, maintenance etc. So if it happens, which wouldn't make much sense for the aforementioned reasons, it will be a long, long wait. And the conscience-related reasons for ditching combustion engines, whether geopolitical, health or climate change, all worsen the longer you wait.

[NedaSay]

32 minutes ago, CharlieBrown said:

HAHAHA

Well, all the Lotus websites still has the Evora 400 listed as one of their models.

I believe they do it because of the number of 400 in dealers' inventory. However if Lotus was gearing up for a new model year it would probably be a MY2020. 

[mdavies]

Without commenting on hydrogen powered cars in general or on sourcing the stuff, am I right in believing on-board hydrogen tanks are 5,000 or 10,000 psi?  If so, hmmm.....

And Charlie Brown, re your "hmm." above, are you intimating that a 2019/2020 Evora will actually be a "400"? As opposed to some other number?

 

 

[Clive59]

re hydrogen issues, there is a new technology which uses a membrane to release hydrogen from ammonia,  so I presume eliminating those issues, and making refilling and transportation/storage much easier. Agree with @C8RKH, that having hydrogen power makes much more sense, and not having to manufacture batteries that themselves require a lot of energy to manufacture. By products of water and nitrogen sounds pretty good to me.

 

[au-yt]

8 hours ago, C8RKH said:

I've said it before and I will repeat it again. EV's on their own are merely a transitory technology and a reason to push battery exploration and innovation.

The real commercial future will, I believe be in Hydrogen powered hybrids. Why?

1. The cost and complexities with rolling out national infrastructure to support the charging of EV's at scale is too high - it will cost upwards of £30bn-£40bn in the UK alone to support and there is little real appetite to pay for it

2. The conditions on the UK streets are not conducive to large scale deployment of EV's charging posts and they remain open to "blockage" (so you can't access them), vandalism, etc. The vast majority of people in the UK do live in the country or "private housing estates" with space - they live in congested streets and estates where parking is a battle, not a right

3. Despite the increases in range, the range of pure EV's is still insufficient for a longer commute or journey (say 100 miles each way, plus leaving the car not on a charger for a few days) to get over the range anxiety for many

4. As the TESLA Model S shows, the cars can be phenomenally quick, but only for a few short bursts and then the batteries heat and they need to recover. Not going to be a hoon or track day weapon any real day soon then

5. The biggie - habit!  People are not used to having to plan ahead for their journeys, they are used to the convenience of just jumping into a vehicle, starting, it, driving off and when they need more fuel just putting it in, quickly, usually at the same 5 minute stop having a pee, getting a coffee and a yorkie bar! Even with fast chargers of 20 minutes as the number of EV's grows the chances are your wait will grow.

So for me, the real alternative will be Hydrogen hybrids.  Hydrogen pumps will be added to current forecourts much like LPG was (indeed, probably replacing the LPG ones) and with Hydrogen cars already capable of a range in excess of 300 miles they will be combined with a hybrid electrical engine/recovery system to provide a total range of around 500-650 miles from a single fill-up and no need for thousands items of additional street furniture to be installed, of holes to be dug in roads, etc etc.

EV's will be like the betamax video - a short term technology winner that was first outdone by the volume ease of VHS and then by a different technology (CD's/DVD's).

Hydrogen is coming - the most abundant element on earth. no need to mine/extract it in one country to export to another. More self sufficiency and less political risk due to fuel crisis caused by war/politics etc.  The only thing holding it back right now is the fear of destabilization that it might cause in areas such as Africa, South America, the US and the Middle East through the shift away from black carbon based fuels.

Supporting evidence

 

[CharlieBrown]

15 hours ago, NedaSay said:

I believe they do it because of the number of 400 in dealers' inventory. However if Lotus was gearing up for a new model year it would probably be a MY2020. 

You are correct.

An UK dealer told me this about the 2019 Evora 400 model....."no unfortunately not, the Evora 400 has been stopped by Lotus, the only Evora available is the Evora GT410 Sport."

14 hours ago, mdavies said:

Without commenting on hydrogen powered cars in general or on sourcing the stuff, am I right in believing on-board hydrogen tanks are 5,000 or 10,000 psi?  If so, hmmm.....

And Charlie Brown, re your "hmm." above, are you intimating that a 2019/2020 Evora will actually be a "400"? As opposed to some other number?

 

 

My hmm just expressed disappointment. 

Edited February 19, 2019 by CharlieBrown

[au-yt]

12 hours ago, CharlieBrown said:

You are correct.

An UK dealer told me this about the 2019 Evora 400 model....."no unfortunately not, the Evora 400 has been stopped by Lotus, the only Evora available is the Evora GT410 Sport."

My hmm just expressed disappointment. 

Interesting, The factory website still lists them

https://www.lotuscars.com/explore-lotus-evora-range

Old trick by dealers to sell you what they have in stock only.

[Bravo73]

Exactly. @Bibs explained it in a previous post. 

[PAR]

KI believe there is only one 400 u registered in the UK so not much of an issue anymore here’s but the GT410 is not approved for the US market yet so 400 is the only thing they can still sell there. I guess they don’t take orders but just redirect customers to what has been stockpiled there.

Edited February 20, 2019 by PAR

[NedaSay]

11 minutes ago, PAR said:

KI believe there is only one 400 u registered in the UK so not much of an issue anymore here’s but the GT410 is not approved for the US market yet so 400 is the only thing they can still sell there. I guess they don’t take orders but just redirect customers to what has been stockpiled there.

I believe the announcement for the 430 and 410 is imminent,  the few dealers left are meeting with Lotus USA today and tomorrow. They should be presented with the future plans going forward and logically some Volvo dealers and service centres could be added to make up for the lost dealerships and bolstering the support infrastructure for Lotus in North America.  It seems that while they were not supposed to get the GT410 initially they/we are going to get it.

[CharlieBrown]

On 20/02/2019 at 17:50, Neda Say said:

I believe the announcement for the 430 and 410 is imminent,  the few dealers left are meeting with Lotus USA today and tomorrow. They should be presented with the future plans going forward and logically some Volvo dealers and service centres could be added to make up for the lost dealerships and bolstering the support infrastructure for Lotus in North America.  It seems that while they were not supposed to get the GT410 initially they/we are going to get it.

The GT410 in the USA will hopefully bring used car prices up for the Evora 400.

[C8RKH]

15 hours ago, CharlieBrown said:

For me I would have to go up and that means an exotic entry level like the 570s McLaren but they are a little fragile..

FTFY

[Advantage]

Wait, what? The Evora is being continued? That's actually quite disappointing. How long for, is it just a short-term stopgap?  

[Spinney]

Well if it wasn't, Lotus would have even fewer cars to sell until the introduction of the Geely era models. It is, after all, the most recent of Lotus designs - notwithstanding the extended Elise chassis to produce the V6 Exige and the only one that can be sold in the USA at present.

[NedaSay]

5 hours ago, Advantage said:

Wait, what? The Evora is being continued? That's actually quite disappointing. How long for, is it just a short-term stopgap?  

It was always part of the plan for the Evora to stick around at least until the two new JMG planned sport cars were out, the Elise was also set to continue in its current guise for for a little while longer. I think the Evora will soldier on for probably another 3 years.

[MPx]

On a slightly different tack...I've been a bit disturbed to see the latest reliability surveys from JD Power (US) and Which? (UK).  Essentially they have Volvo pretty near the bottom of the list with twice as many faults reported compared to those at the top of the table.  

 

Which? car brand reliability Rank Car manufacturer Reliability 0-3 years Reliability 3-8 years

1 Lexus ***** *****

2 Suzuki ***** *****

3 Toyota ***** *****

4 Dacia ***** ****

5 Alfa Romeo ***** ***

6 Honda **** *****

7 Mitsubishi **** *****

8 BMW **** ****

9 Kia **** ****

10 Mazda **** ****

11 Mini **** ****

12 Audi **** ***

13 Ford **** ***

14 Hyundai **** ***

15 Renault **** ***

16 Seat **** ***

17 Skoda **** ***

18 Subaru **** ***

19 Citroen **** **

20 Peugeot **** **

21 Vauxhall **** **

22 Volkswagen **** **

23 DS **** n/a

24 Jeep *** ****

25 Porsche *** ****

26 Jaguar *** ***

27 Mercedes-Benz *** ***

28 Nissan *** ***

29 Smart *** ***

30 Fiat *** **

31 Volvo *** **

32 Ssangyong ***  n/a

33 Tesla ***  n/a

34 Land Rover ** **

35 Chevrolet  n/a **

36 Saab  n/a **

n/a - not available or sample size too small 

I'm aware that the 2019 JD Power study will be based on 2016 cars...so presumably pre-Geely?  But the Which? survey has 0-3yr and 3-8yr and new Volvo's are poor too.  Chinese quality control does not have a good reputation in the UK and their Motorcycle product are a laughing stock in that regard.  We're not going to resurrect the old acronym are we ?....after what must be at least 2 decades of it being totally inappropriate?    That would be a cruel irony given the great hopes we all now have for the marque.

[CharlieBrown]

6 hours ago, C8RKH said:

FTFY

What is FTFY?

Edited February 25, 2019 by CharlieBrown

[tim_marra]

Fixed That For You