Brexit

[Mark Blanchard]

Yes, you might be right.  It seems May might sell us short, ie open borders and more.

[Barrykearley]

Press the button and get out - with no open borders - no compromise. We will have our cake and eat it. And if they don't think we can - I'm afraid they are wrong. The German car makers will be begging for them to buckle

[Andyww]

The Left have already started digging the dirt on Andrea Leadsom, apparently she has legally avoided some tax.

Funny thing is, they dont seem at all bothered by their beloved EU whos president, Juncker, arranged tax avoidance deals with multinationals in Luxembourg which has cost £billions over the years nor the fact that all MEPs and British staff in Brussels legally avoid UK tax.

About leaving, we are going about this entirely the wrong way as Barry mentions above. By dithering we are giving into them and will have no bargaining position. Unfortunately its probably already too late, we should have invoked article 50 already.

[CHANGES]

An awful lot of what is being reported....' which is most of what we have to go on' ... Including the clever editing to make the positive negative, is an underlying conspiracy aim to destabilise the democratic vote..  

Now the source of all this is not clear , it appears in all forms from press to demonstrations, with innuendo and supposition . This has all the hall marks of a cleverly orchestrated conspiracy because of its source anonymity ...  Well it is clear to the free thinking 48% but no real proof of origin except for the fact it is happening..  The stay in campaign and EU are behind it all .. The very fact that they will not except a democratic vote and move forward is proof of why we the people of a free UK voted out.. The despicable actions that are being witnessed would have become the norm if we had stayed in , truth be told they had already started which is why we got out....  

If the vote had been delayed another year or so , these traitors to the British way of life would have profiled and put measures in place which would have guaranteed them the result they sought.   So it appears they will stop short of nothing to overturn or infiltrate to destroy from within the fabric by which we live DEMOCRACY ....   

[C8RKH]

I just cannot understand why we are seeing these events unfold. I mean, it is as if either I, or everyone else, is living in a parallel universe.

I mean, it is patently clear and "out there" that a referendum is held to provide "advice" to the Government. That is why they are "advisory" is it not?

So we have all this noise and rhetoric about how we have left the EU, when, right now, we have left nothing. The British public has said, in a democratic process, that it wishes to be independent and out of the current EU organisation. NOTHING though has changed.

So, why are we seeing demands being made left, right and centre for a guarantee on this, a guarantee on that, and a guarantee on the other?

NOTHING has changed - we are still a part of the EU. We still hand over money to the EU. We still abide by the laws and treaties of the EU. And by return, the EU stands by it's commitments to us, be they laws, grants, subsidies, whatever.

So why are we seeing demonstrations about this. Demands from regions like Cornwall about grants for this and that. Demands from Universities and Farmers over the status quo over subsidies and grants etc.  FFS, shall we just sit back and have a cup of tea and let the dust settle and see what is actually out there?

What we need is a period of calm reflection rather than this knee jerking that is going on - I mean great, we have had 5 years here in Scotland where Sturgeon and the SNP have had one excuse after another to not actually govern Scotland through this issue and that. Our education system has collapsed in Scotland. Our NHS in Scotland is critically under-funded compared to the rUk. Our Police force is an international joke with the recent re-org. Etc etc. And now what we have is Sturgeon on yet another crusade demanding Scottish rights in the EU. Demanding guarantees for EU citizens in Scotland. Demanding more chocolate on a Tunnock's tea cake. Essentially, demanding everything, and being able to create a lot of noise and bluster to disguise the fact that her Government in Scotland is yet again stalled and no decisions are being taken on anything that WE feel is important or needed.

Look at the positives:

The FTSE has rebounded to HIGHER levels than before

The £ is lower, meaning our exports are cheaper, helping our manufacturers and producers and making us a more attractive holiday destination for the Chinese, Japanese, Americans, and yes, even the Europeans who continue to come here in their droves as holiday makers.

The US has already back tracked and a trade deal motion is going to the house to keep our trading borders open with the US! They WANT to keep trading with us.

The world did not end the Friday after the vote and WE ARE NOT at War in Europe.

The ONLY negatives i can see right now are:

1. The bloody bitching and whinging from those that wanted to remain and just do not seem to understand what democracy, freedom and a free vote is

2. The platform it has provided for that complete arrogant twit Geldoff who is totally BS'ing the left wing populists who are supporting him as he swigs his champagne shouting abuse at UK workers

3. I have to watch and listen to yet more posturing from Queen Nicola on every bloody news outlet and channel

I'm actually ashamed of my country right now, for the first time in my 50 year life, as it seems to be turning its back on it's very foundations and cores around decency, tolerance, and democracy. The very things that made my country, this wee little Island, this little pocket of feistyness and innovation, the greatest country in the world.

[Chillidoggy]

A couple of downsides I can see is that where our manufacturing relies on imported raw materials will cost more, the net effect will be to increase the prices of those goods. Also, it occurs to me that the FTSE is global, so we should look at UK and European company shares when looking at the state of the markets.

As for Nicola Sturgeon, you're welcome to her!

[march]

Question: The FTSE reports value in Stirling? so as Stirling has dropped significantly is this giving companies a false high values on both FTSE 100 and 250 companies when compared to the International markets? So companies recording high share values are not necessarily doing as well as the FTSE indicates at first glance. Is this correct or have I got it wrong somewhere in my rationale?

[C8RKH]

You compare the FTSE against itself, not against the currency, otherwise you would be recalculating the value of the FTSE, and every other indices, every time a currency fluctuation somewhere. I think the rationale is wrong. Happy to be proven wrong though.

3 hours ago, ian29gte said:

A couple of downsides I can see is that where our manufacturing relies on imported raw materials will cost more, the net effect will be to increase the prices of those goods. 

And that has been a real problem for Germany, and Europes other exporters, not.

[ChrisJ]

Here's a Remainer - looks like he's beginning to understand.

https://medium.com/@oliverhumpage/i-want-to-stop-something-exploitative-divisive-and-dishonest-conversation-with-a-leaver-af77afb1773f#.r1kxwm1d1

 

[Bibs]

Farage has stepped down (again!). 

[Stubox]

On 3 July 2016 at 13:20, C8RKH said:

I just cannot understand why we are seeing these events unfold. I mean, it is as if either I, or everyone else, is living in a parallel universe.

Because of the uncertainty of what will happen. Given no one knows, or those that led us out of Europe never had a plan to unveil if they were victorious, it's put a significant void in the commercial and financial system. That void is being filled with negativity at the moment or at best a giant 'pause' button has been pushed. And if you're dealing with anything involved with euro exchange rate then short/medium term it's going to cost you(us) a packet. 

 

So I agree we need to get moving and get on with it now.

 

Now go have another cup of tea. 

 

Bit out of date now but I found this funny, many of you probably not

"Right. F@@k this. We're ALL up shit creek and we need a paddle. Now, not in three months.

Fellow Remain voters: Enough already. Yes, we're all pissed off but navel gazing ain't gonna help. Not all 17 million Leave voters can possibly be racist northern pensioners without an O level to their name. Maybe they have a point about this quitting the EU thing? Maybe not. Whatever, we are where we are and no amount a whinging is gonna change that. Allegedly we're the intelligent ones, so get your thinking caps on. 

Leave voters. Well done. Good game. We hear you. Now you need to get stuck in to the aftermath and not just piss off back to Wetherspoons. (Just banter, twats!). And the first person to say they "want their country back" gets deported to f@@king Gibraltar. OK?

Politicians.

David. F@@k off. Shut the door behind you. Now.

George. You may be a twat but you're our twat. Plus you know the passwords for our Junior Savers account. Get your calculator. Drop the face-like-a-slapped-ass routine. You're on.

Boris. Sorry mate. That photo of you abseiling by your scrotum over the London Olympics while waving a Union Jack can't ever be un-taken. Plus, you'll never be able to appear on Question Time again without some sturdy Glaswegian nurse asking where the f@@k her 350 million quid is. Not only will she have a very good point, she'll be wearing a T shirt that shows you gurning in front of that f@@k bus! No captains hat for you I'm afraid. 

Theresa. You're in charge love. Get the biggest shoulder pads you've got. We need Ming The Merciless in drag and you'll scare the shit out of 'em.

Nicola. Yep. Fair cop. You probably could get us on a technicality, as could London. But we f@@king love shortbread. And oil. And to be honest you're probably the best politician we've got, so we need you on side. Sort your lot out and we promise never to mention that Jimmy Krankie thing again (although it is pretty uncanny) and we'll make you a Dame once we're sorted. Bring Ruth Davidson. She kicks ass.

Opposition party. We'll need one. Someone take Jeremy and John back to the British Legion Club where you found them. Take Nigel as well. Give back their sandals, buy them a pint, then go to Heathrow and collect David Milliband. F@@k it. Lets gets Ed Balls as well. He keeps George on his toes. I think he works on the lottery kiosk at Morrisons now?

Oh. And Mark Carney. Give him a knighthood and tell him to keep that shit coming. We definitely need more of that good shit!

Everyone set? Right. Hold the Easyjet. We're going to Brussels and this ain't no hen party."

[ChrisJ]

 

[C8RKH]

If you didn't laugh you would cry!

Can I just put the kettle on, make a cup of tea and dunk my milk chocolate hob nobs as normal?

[Kimbers]

One thing all those calling for a second vote (including the BBC who I noticed still has headlines of "Does Brexit infringe on your human rights" (which is set by the Eu BTW)) seem to be missing is UK Law. I understand that after a referendum, it doesn't have to pass through Parliament, but then that would be anti-democratic and the MP's don't want to start down that road. But for me the biggest thing is that after something happens in Law it sets precedence. Now whilst I know we have legal eagles here on TLF, as far as I can see (and this happens in my job as well, where someone challenges something) if they have a second referendum it will set a precedence along the lines of "Despite Democracy having worked and the majority won, if the Majority of the minority disagree then it must be re-run.

Now, for me, this would be unchartered waters for our MP's, overturning a democratic vote. What sort of can of worms would it open? Well the obvious one is "Labour get in (or any other party) with 40% of the vote." This gives them a majority in the Houses of parliament but wait............60% are not unhappy..........RERUN!!!! 

I don't care that it has never happened before, surely if you set a precedence in overturning a True Majority Vote then anything is on the cards? Surely if they run it again all the Leave campaigners just need to demand a rerun and stop the stay camp winning.........and it goes on and on.

 

[Andyww]

There would be a case for another referendum if there are substantial changes to the structure of the relationship with the EU.

If the EU would agree to a change which allows free issuance of work permits to EU residents who were born within the EU, but limits free movement to that extent, that would be sufficient change IMHO. Ie no benefits of any kind for ever and any applications to become UK citizens considered on the same basis to anyone worldwide.

In practical terms that would mean anyone applying would need to have accommodation and employment pre-arranged.

For this to happen the first thing is Juncker has to go because he would never agree to this. Then the UK needs to stand firm and put forward this case otherwise article  50 will be implemented. This kind of compromise happens in business all the time but politicians always make things difficult/impossible.

[C8RKH]

I agree fully @Kimbers but then I support Democracy.

However, if the rules within the EU change materially then I can understand why a Brexit2 would be valid.

This one reason why the current process around Article 50 is flawed as it was designed as an ultimatum with no wiggle room. Once you invoke it, you have 2 years to negotiate exit and regardless at end of 2 years you are out. It's a one way revolving door only and designed to deter it being invoked through its finality. 

I still think we should have the guts to leave and we should be negotiating trade deals right now all over the world and in particular with our Commonwealth peers.

The Americans will not leave us isolated as they will not want us to build a special relationship with Russia or China.

Heaven help us but Blackpool could be the next go to holiday destination for the Russians. Lol...

I agree fully with @Andyww

[andydclements]

On 03/07/2016 at 15:08, C8RKH said:

You compare the FTSE against itself, not against the currency, otherwise you would be recalculating the value of the FTSE, and every other indices, every time a currency fluctuation somewhere. I think the rationale is wrong. Happy to be proven wrong though.

And that has been a real problem for Germany, and Europes other exporters, not.

Yes, and No.

The FTSE is an index but one of the drivers is the price, in the base currency (Sterling). So, it's not a simple as the UK£ drops 5% against all other currencies and the FTSE (or FTSE100,FTSE250 etc) moves 5%, but that drop has an input to the calculation.

[C8RKH]

Quite so I guess when you look at the more international FTSE100, is it the same though with the much more UK focused FTSE250?

But then is it not also like property? Depending on where you are and your home currency a £ increase/decrease against your currency will make a property appear cheaper/more expensive to you, yet here in the UK it's the same £ price it was the day before.

Was it Wilson who said the £ in your pocket will be worth the same tomorrow as it was today when he tackled his crisis?

[MPx]

12 hours ago, Andyww said:

There would be a case for another referendum if there are substantial changes to the structure of the relationship with the EU.

If the EU would agree to a change which allows free issuance of work permits to EU residents who were born within the EU, but limits free movement to that extent, that would be sufficient change IMHO. Ie no benefits of any kind for ever and any applications to become UK citizens considered on the same basis to anyone worldwide.

 

Cant agree with that Andy - its not a substantive enough change.  No rerun unless the EU reform includes democracy.  That would mean sacking the commissioners and may be setting out a European manifesto (say 4 to 6 different versions) that the whole of Europe can vote on.  The winning manifesto is the one that gets legislated...if its not in the winning manifesto then its not legislated.   The European Parliament would then have a proper role to debate and enact the winning manifesto.  That way there is at least a mechanism to stop the worst of the excesses.  Without democracy the despots in charge will just get more despotic ...

[Andyww]

Good point and agree to above.

[C8RKH]

Democracy in the EU may be coming! From reports I read last night it looks like Merkel is circling the commission and Juncker.

She is telling them to pipe down and also, the Commission thought it was going to handle Brexit whereas she and the EU Parliament are taking control and have appointed their own head.

Finally they are queztioning the role and authority of the commission.

If we cut through the crap and posturing there is some interesting stuff going on.

[johnpwalsh]

It's going to be an interesting few months if the momentum is kept going.

 

[redshift]

On 06/07/2016 at 08:37, C8RKH said:

Democracy in the EU may be coming! From reports I read last night it looks like Merkel is circling the commission and Juncker.

If we cut through the crap and posturing there is some interesting stuff going on.

Merkel's problem is that of maintaining EU confidence. Forget the FTSE and exchange rates, the real elephant in the room is the Deutsche Bank which is currently holding 55 TRILLION in foreign derivatives. Its exposure is 5 times the GDP of all of europe combined!

If that EU confidence goes (and Brexit has seriously dented it) then expect the Deutsche Bank to implode shortly after and the House of Cards will fall and you can all say 'thank god we are out of this mess'.

[Jacques]

I'm sorry, but all these talks from ec persons and spokesmen (and -women) are just another way of expressing their frear of loosing their current power. It's not democratic (it's about a  power-hungry elite who work across borders and it always was), and all they are saying now, are just teasers to lure us into thinking, that just because brexit happened, they suddenly, by some touch of magic of devine interferrence, became aware of the "suddenly" highly undemocratic bank-ruled reality, and suddenly turned over on the populations side... Ha ha ha.... I laugh my behind off... Ha ha ha.... What a joke. The ec never was and never will be a democratic people-ruled organisation to the benefit of the human kind. Not untill hell freezes over. And than probably won't happen for a long time, as long as some of it is working in the..... ec.

Don't believe me? Well, just take a look at Cameron, who had to explain himself for makeing a big lie as to the middle East war. The skeletons are rattleing in the closet. No matter what undemocratic Laws they are making up, they always come out of the closet sooner or later. The point is, that they will do anything, and I mean anything, to stay hide their lies and agendas and stay in power. Another way of seeing this is, that whenever one of the elite-members, club-members or whatever one calls them, becomes too openly embarrasing, caught in a big enough lie, or the majority of the peoples vote and voice gets too strong, they all stand back and point fingers of the one WHO have to be "sacrified". Than mechanism somehow reminds me of a flock of predators, not humans, sadly.

Nothing new under the Sun, really.

With democratic kind regards,

Jacques.

[pete]

With the impending Italian banking crisis thought it might be appropriate to re post this 

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10150860012110261&id=163537745046&refsrc=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.co.uk%2F&_rdr