Is electric really the answer?

[Steve V8]

When new the battery life on my Samsung mobile phone was three days, after two years use it won't last out the day.

Someone remind me the cost of replacement EV batteries. 

I must go, my battery is abou

[KAS-118]

Here' s an estimate   https://interestingengineering.com/tesla-puts-price-on-model-3-battery-module-replacement-around-5000-7000 As can be seen from the article, in the Tesla 3  its the battery modules and not the whole pack that needs replacement.

Quite a lot of money - but then again this thread https://www.thelotusforums.com/forums/topic/107814-gulp-mclaren-anyone/ identifies that servicing and repair costs on internal combustion engines cars can be expensive.

For example, a bare engine for an Evora seems to be £4,500 - 5,000 (including VAT) http://elise-spares.com/lotus-engine/lotus-engines?product_id=762 that's excluding charger and ancillaries etc - and of course, the cost of fitting.

[Steve V8]

So Elon Musk reckons, his batteries will lose 25% of their capacity to hold charge in 3 years, and cost 5-7k USD to replace.

All of which means, my new Evija will get me from Bath to the Lotus festival on a single charge this year, but next year I'll need to stop and charge.

And if Mr Musk reckons, you might take those figures with a pinch of salt.😁

 

[KAS-118]

Perhaps I''m reading it wrong - but it said that the batteries would retain 75% of their capacity - full stop -  where did 3 years come from?

It also said that they were designed to last 300,000 to 500,000 miles; and that the cars come with a 8-year and 160,000 miles (whatever's first) Warranty.

Yes, batteries do degrade over time - but then again so does the performance from an Internal Combustion Engines.

It wouldn't surprise me if Elon's Musk's claims were exaggerated.

Yes, you might need to stop and recharge the Evija; but then again, you'd need to feel your Esprit up on the way back in any event. When you made it back home it would be unlikely to have a full tank - and it would still not be full the next morning. The Evija you'd get home - plug in, and next morning it would be fully charged. 

Indeed, you scenario would be based upon your Esprit being full, or near full, at the start of your journey. I'm sure it would be - but that would mean that you've probably gone out the day before to fill it up.

[KAS-118]

I see there's talk now of brining the sale of Diesel and Petrol Vehicles even further forwards to 2032 in the UK.

Also wasn't aware that Norway are planning to introduce the same in 2025.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51474769

[pete]

Norway is half way there already. I think 50% of car registration s last year there were electric

[KAS-118]

Yeah, I'm told that in Sweden for January 2020 about 32% of sales were the electrics, plug-in hybrids or bio/methhane gas which emit 70g of CO2/km or less; and 33% were plug-in hybrids/gas which were over this level and 22% were diesel (which is down 17% from Jan 2019).

So you can see where its heading 

[mg4lotus]

Playing devil's advocate as I currently don't have any affiliation but I do understand that things will need to change. What will be will be.

The Jaguar ipace has ceased production temporarily due to shortage of batteries.

[oilmagnet477]

On 11/02/2020 at 11:02, KAS-118 said:

Perhaps I''m reading it wrong - but it said that the batteries would retain 75% of their capacity - full stop -  where did 3 years come from?

It also said that they were designed to last 300,000 to 500,000 miles; and that the cars come with a 8-year and 160,000 miles (whatever's first) Warranty.

Yes, batteries do degrade over time - but then again so does the performance from an Internal Combustion Engines.

It wouldn't surprise me if Elon's Musk's claims were exaggerated.

Yes, you might need to stop and recharge the Evija; but then again, you'd need to feel your Esprit up on the way back in any event. When you made it back home it would be unlikely to have a full tank - and it would still not be full the next morning. The Evija you'd get home - plug in, and next morning it would be fully charged. 

Indeed, you scenario would be based upon your Esprit being full, or near full, at the start of your journey. I'm sure it would be - but that would mean that you've probably gone out the day before to fill it up.

Don't 'feel up your Esprit' in public.

1. It's probably illegal and

2. @Barrykearley might get aroused......

[KAS-118]

On 10/02/2020 at 12:32, MPx said:

Interesting stuff well argued, but some flaws in my view.  On the science/density argument I'm sure he's done the maths, but the reality isn't as he implies so there is something else going on that he fails to address - maybe the efficiency of electric versus ICE motors? - I dont know.  Clearly electric cars actually go much further, much faster than ICE cars on 33kWHrs of energy.  No mainstream ICE will do much on 1 gallon of petrol, ALL electric cars will do more on 33kWHrs.  In terms of Volume, the Evija shows what can be achieved by not having all the stuff associated with ICE - the Evija is not 20 times the size of other hypercars.

 

Also on the charging infrastructure/convenience points - absolutely agree with him and Harry...but again not necessarily an issue for a significant market share.  As I said above I've never yet needed to use the half baked public charging infrastructure.   Its simply not relevant.  And plugging in overnight at home every few days is way simpler and more convenient than stopping at a petrol station.   Its a bit like saying no-one will buy an Exige until its got 4 seats.  Obviously its no good for someone that needs four seats but there's plenty out there that don't.   And those that need 4 seats or load space only sometimes (rarely?) have the option to hire a 4 seater or van and we don't deride their choice because it doesn't do everything they might ever need.  

Seems he forgot to factor in the 'Efficiency' of Petrol v Electric engines - so not quite as bad - but interesting what he says about electric lorries. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oJL9MasBFvM&t=355s

Edited February 13, 2020 by KAS-118

[KAS-118]

Despite the weight disadvantages - it seems electric cars can be quite entertaining on the 'twisties' too 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aojg8xWWT0c

[USAndretti42]

This has been a dispiriting topic to plough through.  Not becuase of the subject but because of the back and forth between some of the contributors.  And, Kevin, there is no need to quote the previous post so frequently.  Often, it's bad enough to read it once without it being repeated. 😀

Where I live and most new developments offer limited off-road parking so a new paradigm for charging battery-electric cars will be needed and quickly, I would think, if they are to become the dominant mode of transport.

I note that the plan to ban the sale of fossil-fuelled vehicles by 2032 does not include buses which, in my view, is scandalous but disappointingly typical of governments legislating against the private motorist rather than companies as the private motorists have little lobbying strength.

 

[KAS-118]

An interesting video which explains why, for the moment at least, hydrogen fuel cells aren't as popular as BEV's 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1&v=f7MzFfuNOtY&feature=emb_logo

[Escape]

9 hours ago, USAndretti42 said:

I note that the plan to ban the sale of fossil-fuelled vehicles by 2032 does not include buses which, in my view, is scandalous but disappointingly typical of governments legislating against the private motorist rather than companies as the private motorists have little lobbying strength.

That's much like the situation in some cities over here: the city council has installed a Low Emission Zone, but the bus company (funded by the region) still uses older buses, so just pays the fines. Money flowing from the region (= our taxes) to certain cities, all in the name of saving the climate.

[C8RKH]

Which? Had a week with a Hyundai Nexo hydrogen car. They praised its smooth acceleration and its hushed, effortless demeanour of calmnes even on the most stressful journey.

Its range prediction was more accurate than BEVs and they also said that the range was less impacted by driving style and weather than BEV.

Refuelling - simply attach a nozzle. Lock it in place and hit the button. No need to hold the trigger. No mess and under 5 minutes for full fill up.

Their final quote "my time with the Nexo makes me wonder why anyone woukd choose the inconvenience of a BEV over hydrogen... The future of personal transport really has arrived".

Given that Which? Has been plugging BEVs for years this is really quite astounding.

Like BEVs, hydrogen needs investment in top-up/fill-up points but to answer the OP question I would say no it isn't. It's hydrogen! 

I stick to my belief that BEV will be the Betamax, Hydrogen the VHS.

 

[pete]

Not sure the government subscribe to Which

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, C8RKH said:

Their final quote "my time with the Nexo makes me wonder why anyone woukd choose the inconvenience of a BEV over hydrogen... The future of personal transport really has arrived".

Just remind me again how convenient it is to fill up and where my nearest hydrogen station is

[C8RKH]

Very convenient but like with BEV @Barrykearley it needs investment in infrastructure. But unlike BEV it will be cheaper to roll out the national infrastructure needed.

[KAS-118]

The convenience of a Hydrogen Fuel Cell is the speed of replenishing it and the range. The big disadvantages are the cost (the Nexo is over £60k) - but that will come down - and the lack of fill stations - although that will improve - and the creation, transportation and storage of the fuel. 

The convenience of a BEV is being able to replenish at home, and packaging. The big disadvantages are time it take to recharge (that will improve) range (which will improve) and weight (which will improve).

Until BEV’s either have significantly improved range, or can be charged significantly quicker (thus being suitable for long range drivers or people with aren’t charging facilities at home) then there’s going to be a need fo Hydrogen Fuel cells.

But it seems to me that the disadvantages of BEVs can be overcome by technology; but the disadvantage of Hydrogen, ultimately relate to the physical properties of the fuel itself.

However, I see both developing and replacing the Diesel/Petrol choice we have at the moment. 

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, C8RKH said:

Very convenient but like with BEV @Barrykearley it needs investment in infrastructure. But unlike BEV it will be cheaper to roll out the national infrastructure needed.

I do agree. However there s currently nothing in place whatsoever.

I can plug in my EV at home and she charges just lovely. Don’t think I’ll be able to do that with hydrogen - that is unless they release the water to hydrogen conversion kit which fits under the kitchen sink.

[C8RKH]

Yup. For people who do low mileages and go home most nights a BEV will be fine. My car can be left in an airport car park, or a station car park for 2-3 weeks when I am away with work and I don't worry that when I get back it won;t start. I would be worried like shit if it was a BEV I had left there as I obviously could not just leave it plugged in for that period in the car park.

Glad you're liking your BEV Barry, but not for me. 

[Barrykearley]

I left the leaf for over 6 weeks when we got the new one - not plugged in or anything. Press the on button and away she went.

in many ways they are far better than ice cars -  in others they are crap (no throbbing engine noise)

[C8RKH]

Don't do that with the Evora. It will not start I guarantee it!

[Barrykearley]

There’s no chance of that happening - I used the Evora almost every day

[pete]

so what is needed is a way of extracting hydrogen from a storage of water coupled with self charging