Is electric really the answer?

[jonwat]

Today's Times

Demand for electric cars has fallen sharply, with drivers choosing to buy new petrol and ­hybrid models instead. Electric vehicles’ market share fell last month, the Society of ­Motor Manufacturers and Traders said. New registrations rose by only 3.8 per cent year-on-year in what is typically the best month for sales.

[DarrylV8]

Hopefully Mr Feng Qingfeng will also see the above information and change the direction Lotus cars are currently pursuing 

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

I was looking online for a cheap secondhand car in Ireland on behalf of a colleague yesterday. At his restricted budget only one type of car kept popping up. The Nissan Leaf. All of the equivalent age/mileage ICE cars were significantly more expensive, but nobody wants an old EV.

[JimmytheTurbo]

How about this one.

Guy takes his EV in for a service and a software update was installed. When he got in there was a tick box on his info screen to accept terms. 30 pages of info including the fact they had installed geofencing software to limit how far he could drive the car and on which days.

Not consenting to this new agreement he told the dealers who:-

1) Had never heard they were installing this 

2) Were unable to un-install the software

As this was the case the dealer had to buy the car back from the man.

Has anyone else face this sort of thing?

 

Edited April 9 by JimmytheTurbo

[C8RKH]

Cut and paste from LinkedIn - source: The PlugSeeker, an EV advocate and supporter on social media and in the press.

Really good and balanced post highlighting some of the reasons why EV sales are falling and the masses remain unconvinced.

Our Government really screwed up, and got it totally wrong, when they decided to subsidise EV's, the physical cars, instead of preparing the way for mass adoption by incentivising the physical infrastructure first.

What we have ended up with is a regime that rewarded the well off, to use tax efficient schemes, to purchase high performance, luxury EV's at high retail prices. in favour of tax advantages.  If you think about it, and look at it, this approach was never going to drive mass adoption, nor is it the right approach to incentivise manufacturers to focus on what the mass market needs, which is not ludicrous 0-60mph times but range efficient batteries that require fewer recharges and deliver more miles per kw consumed.

Yet again, our Government, Politician's, and the Green Lobby groups have created a situation where no one wins. When will they learn?

+++++POST+++++

"Been doing some sums tonight. Using Driver and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) data for 2020 average diesel / petrol car efficiency, published weekly average fuel prices, and assuming average EV efficiency 3m/kWh. Am going to be totally honest, as a keen EV advocate to the costs of using Rapid 50kW+ chargers currently, and why we MUST cut the VAT on Rapid charger electricity.

Diesel car - Cost 12.4p/mi
Petrol car - Cost 12.7p/mi

To be EQUAL in price to Fossil cars (purely in terms of fuel money) the cost of electricity to charge needs to be:

Petrol parity
◦38.0p / kWh
Diesel parity
◦37.3p / kWh

Using @zap_map data. Average costs
- Rapids 50kW+ = 81p/kWh
(or 81/3= 27p/mi 16.8p/km)

- Home grid average costs - 28p/kWh
(or 9.3p/mi , 5.8p/km)

- Off peak tariffs- 8.3p/kWh
(or 2.8p/mi. 1.6p/km)

So we have to be honest that fuel costs IF you 100% charge at rapids is almost twice cost. However few EV drivers will 100% rapid charge, this is a minority of EV owners. VITAL to note 60-70% can and will main charge at home which is cheaper and off peak almost 10x CHEAPER potentially. Many will also get home solar or charge cheaply at workplace chargers. Also can charge on lampposts and in places where car is parked at cheaper rates.

Food for thought and comment ? Please share."

+++++POST ENDS++++++

It seems that even the advocates, realise that the current trajectory is not the right one, nor is it sustainable.

[C8RKH]

And this is more bad news. Just when EV prices are descending into the abyss, over supply is adding to the issues. I wonder what the Geely Execs (and possibly their shareholders and investors) are thinking about before they grow to sleep every night?

https://www.ft.com/content/496f3bfa-9f0c-4145-9024-188572a280fd

 

I do believe a big reset is coming. Manufacturers are being forced to think about price and range, and this, coupled with better charging infrastructure, will eventually see an upturn in sales and volumes for EV's. Though it is clear that the wholesale switch from ICE to EV will now not properly happen anytime before 2040-2045. And by then technology and societal use of cars may have changed the landscape considerably with much lower levels of car ownership and use.

[JimmytheTurbo]

I was reading about this a week ago but looks like its being going on in China for 5 years?

 

[C8RKH]

This is what the US and EU Governments are really worried about @JimmytheTurbo - the potential "dumping" of these cars onto their home markets, killing off their indigenous manufacturers.

Also who would want a supposed "new car" that had been lying in a field/parking lot for 5 years (I know, many of us have a Lotus that was "new" after spending 1-3 years in a field somewhere) but I'd hate to think what might happen to the batteries and electronics of an EV during that 5 years in the elements.  They would all need to be recommissioned with new software at the very least, plus the battery tech would be almost completely out of date and therefore unrepairable, even when new. 

As I said, a big reset is coming and just like the dot.com bubble I see a huge number of "brands" disappearing from this space. We are already seeing it with Polestar and Fisker on the brink.

Some brands will thrive. For instance I applaud MG's approach. They have built cheaper to buy EV's that have been flying off the forecourts due to their price/performance point, and on the back of their almost identical looking MG ICE models that have raised the brand awareness. MG are now one of the biggest sellers in the UK. Remarkable. They'd be an excellent case study for Lotus to look at imvho.

[exeterjeep]

1 hour ago, C8RKH said:

MG are now one of the biggest sellers in the UK.

MG UK registrations by year..(2024 1st 3 months)

		2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024
MG		93	504	2326	3152	4192	4441	9049	13075	18415	30510	51050	81289	23138

[Techyd]

That's all very well, but have they started galvanising their chassis yet?  I recall (on this forum) someone was told to get rid of their nearly three year old MG as it was starting to ROT and would not be passing its MOT when it is due...

So, good to be super cheaper for the consumer but bad for any viable and sustainable product to alleviate climate change; this manufacturer, I don't think, wants to make a difference, just sell cheap cars to be disposed of and replaced every few years 😞 

[C8RKH]

9 minutes ago, Techyd said:

this manufacturer, I don't think, wants to make a difference, just sell cheap cars to be disposed of and replaced every few years 😞 

And just how do they differ from any other manufacturer? Why do you think the manufacturers shifted to 3 year PCH/PCP deals for customers? They just want to sell them a new car every 3 years and don't give a damn what happens after the new car is sold, as long as it lasts just long enough for the warranty to expire!

I've not heard a chorus in the market about MG cars being scrapped at 3/4 years old. That would be big news if they were that bad.

You can liken it to the Tesla stories (£18-25k for new batteries), the Panamera PHEV/EVs that are practically worthless at 4 years if a battery cell drops. The Porsche Taycan's that drop £80k in 3 years in value (you could have 3 MGs almost for that depreciation alone!). The market is riddled with "bad news" car stories that affect some, but not all.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

In Germany at the moment for a Sales Meeting with colleagues from other countries. The South Korean guy said EV car production in his country increased by 68% last year, but this year’s increase is likely to be no more than 3% at best. Looks like the market is now saturated with the things.

[pete]

https://www.ft.com/content/496f3bfa-9f0c-4145-9024-188572a280fd

European ports are full of EVs 

[Kimbers]

Another manufacturer saying, but not saying, EV's are useless for Commerical purposes and bringing out their Hydrogen Combustion engine.

MAN to introduce hTGX with hydrogen combustion engine (fleetnews.co.uk)

[Kimbers]

10 hours ago, KusaKusa said:

Lots of details in this article: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/lotus-looks-boost-growth-us-suv-sedan-ev-launches

Are EV's really useable in the US @KusaKusa? I know Arizona, and many EV's (the Lotus included) don't have the range to go from one Town to the next in States like yours and many others as well like Texas, Iowa etc etc etc

[exeterjeep]

We may all know this but I assume this is the current situation

EV values falling faster than ICE vehicles

https://www.am-online.com/news/used-cars/2024/04/10/ev-values-falling-faster-than-ice-vehicles

ICE continues to be the strongest fuel types. Petrol is down 0.5%, with both diesel and hybrid down at -0.8%. EVs continue to decline further than the more traditional drive trains, which currently sit at -1.6%.

 

[C8RKH]

Always interesting videos from this guy, always based on his REAL LIFE EV experience.

He's a bit marmite, but I urge you, if you cannot be bothered to watch the whole video, fast forward to the section starting at 5m 34s. Really, revealing insights on the pressure the "establishment" is putting on the Journalists and news outlets re EVs.

If you do make it to the end, you'll heart about Extinction Rebellion targeting the all new Ford EV station wagon at the New York Auto show. For those of you have read my posts, you will have heard me say many times that the strategy of replacing 33m ICE cars with 33m EV cars is utter bonkers. Well, it would seem that Extinction Rebellion have been reading my posts on here, and articles elsewhere, and they fully agree with me!  Who would have thought I and Extinction Rebellion would be on the same hymn sheet lol....

 

[yeller77]

8 hours ago, Kimbers said:

Are EV's really useable in the US @KusaKusa? I know Arizona, and many EV's (the Lotus included) don't have the range to go from one Town to the next in States like yours and many others as well like Texas, Iowa etc etc etc

I'd venture to say in @KusaKusa territory, heat/AC takes more out of an EV range than it would from an ICE. EVs are useable in urban areas like everywhere else in the world. I have plenty of friends with EVs of all strata from Bolts to Teslas to Rivians and Lucids. Range anxiety is real and they do not go out of their way to take long trips in them. If they do, they stick to Interstates with established charging infrastructures and spend significant time and effort to plan around recharging. Me? I can stop for 5 minutes to gas up and get a Bladder Buster soda and some jerky before having to stop again in 400 mi. (passenger pee breaks notwithstanding)

[KusaKusa]

9 hours ago, Kimbers said:

Are EV's really useable in the US @KusaKusa? I know Arizona, and many EV's (the Lotus included) don't have the range to go from one Town to the next in States like yours and many others as well like Texas, Iowa etc etc etc

EVs may be difficult in more rural and/or colder regions of the US, but close to the west coast and California, I'm not too concerned about the availability of chargers and temperature impact.  An EV with about 200 miles of usable range at 80-85 mph should fulfill all my range use cases, which I'll explain more below.  According to Car and Driver, plenty of EVs hit well over 200 miles at 75 mph.  For AC, it seemingly only impacts range by 13%, but C&D's 75 mph test seems to use AC at 72 degrees F so it's already calculated in the range.  For reference, I live in Phoenix, Arizona.

• For in town travel, EVs are great.  Phoenix is a huge city, so I can easily travel 70-100 miles in a single day on any weekend if I'm going to a specific restaurant, the stadium, and/or events.  With an EV, I could travel the entire day without range worry, return home to charge at night, and save a ton of money that could've been spent on gas.
• For in state travel to another city, EVs work if I can charge at the other city.  Cities I'd travel to like Sedona or Tucson are at most 150 miles away, and often it'd be at least a most-of-the-day affair.  So I can seamlessly rest and eat lunch while I charge.  And the cities are busy enough that chargers should be easy to find.
• For out of state travel, the most likely candidates are Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, or probably somewhere in California on the unlikely chance I road trip.  The trips are 5.5-6.5 hours long and at most 400 miles away, so for me, I would want to take a break during the drive over since I'm not the type to drive 6 hours all in one sitting.  The drives from Phoenix to these cities are common enough to have available chargers if I can use Tesla chargers, especially since it's with California.  Las Vegas should have them on the way too.  Road tripping in California also I have no concerns with charger availability.
• Regardless, if I have any issues with using an EV, I could always use an alternative gas car instead.  My wife needs her own car, so it'd be good to have one EV and one ICEV.  Whether to make the EV my sports car or my wife's practical car/SUV, I'm not sure yet, but I do hate working around ICEV transmissions and engine power peaks/troughs.

 

[JimmytheTurbo]

20 hours ago, C8RKH said:

based on his REAL LIFE EV experience.

The idea they are adding geofencing to cars is reason enough not to go any where near them.

The gov wanting to censor negative stories on EV tells you all you need to know.

[exeterjeep]

17 minutes ago, JimmytheTurbo said:

The idea they are adding geofencing to cars is reason enough not to go any where near them.

But this could be added to non EV's? 

[C8RKH]

5 hours ago, exeterjeep said:

But this could be added to non EV's? 

Absolutely (contrary to what some might think this is NOT all anti-EV rhetoric), the "tech" to enable started to be added around 2016 I believe - apparently any car with the "SOS" button (usually on the roof panel for the reading lights etc) as standard has the ability to be geofenced in the future (there is a sim card added) as the tech is largely all from one company, used by all the car manufacturers.

The issue that people (Politicians) have only now cottoned on to, because their "thickness" often knows no bounds, is the suspicion that ALL Chinese cars (EV's or ICE or Hybrid) could be easily "hacked" through this tech. Think of a Denial of Service web attack, but only this time the denial of service is to cars, vans, buses, lorries!  Frightening! But then this is not anti-Chinese either, all other cars are susceptible too, the thinking is that the Chinese out of all countries, would be the ones to do it. Obviously this is all theoretical and not accusing anyone of anything.

[Sparky]

<begins search for decent Mk1 Granada>

[Kimbers]

https://www.carandclassic.com/l/C1712012

[Sparky]

Ahem...