Brexit

[clivef38]

I'm now wishing my parents had been ten pound poms. I could have got my grand kids away from two faced lying bas""""rd politicians.

[PaulCP]

56 minutes ago, pete said:

On news night last night there were 7 MPs, representing various parties, and each one had a different solution if the vote is voted down. We have no chance of our parliament reaching an agreement on this.

 

Everyone has an opinion, which they believe is correct, quoting all sorts of distorted twisted facts and the media just report without questioning..

No one can tell the future, only the past. Whatever happens we will only really know who was right in another 10 years.

Until then it’s “Vested Interests Rule” without any questioning or interrogation of so called facts by our useless media.

[clivef38]

Reminds me of the millennium bug scare. we are still here. Tell the EU to get stuffed.

[C8RKH]

6 hours ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

What do we think will really happen between now and 29.03.19? If/when Teresa May's deal gets voted down in the Commons next month, do we think she will have to step down? In which case is another General Election most likely and quite possibly a Corbyn win, or do we let the Conservative Party choose another Prime Minister themselves to see out the rest of her term? Whoever takes over would then have to steer us through the first couple of years of a No Deal Brexit.

Not sure if you're trying to troll or genuinely trying to add to the debate, but I'll assume the latter.

Let me turn your questions around and ask you in a different way.

What do YOU think will really happen between now and 29.03.19? If/when Teresa May's deal gets voted down in the commons next month do YOU think she will have to step down? In which case is another General Election most likely and quite possibly a Corbyn win, or do we let the Conservative Party choose another Prime Minister themselves to see out the rest of her term? Whoever takes over would then have to steer us through the first couple of years of a No Deal Brexit.

Would be interested in your direct answers to the questions you posed yourself.

To be fair, I will give you my answers:

1. I think that between now and 29.03.2019 we will continue to argue the toss for and against with no pause for breath

2. I don't think she will have to step down. Remember, it was Cameron not May who called the referendum and it was May who stepped in to the hot seat when the cowardly Cameron ceded his seat.  She took a "no win" role and she has tried to do her best for the country. We can argue over her effectiveness, but, when the country needed a leader she was the first out of the trenches when the whistle was blown. She deserves some credit for that given that she was a confirmed Remainer who took the role on. Remember, she consistently out performs Corbyn, even now, in polls around who is best to lead the UK through this, that has to tell you something about Corbyn's electability as PM give the shambles we are in!  (or am I just being nuts?)

3. I do not think another general election is likely. The Government can choose to "govern" as a minority and in some cases that may be better than relying on the confidence and supply agreement with the nutters in the DUP.

Over to you @LotusLeftLotusRight as i eagerly await your thoughts and POV.

[Steve V8]

7 hours ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

Whoever takes over would then have to steer us through the first couple of years of a No Deal Brexit.

What a fantastic opportunity then for whomever's in power, to grab this thing by the scruff of the neck and drag this country from the mire that it was in far before the referendum. An opportunity to offer our goods and services to the Americas, the Middle East, India and Aisha, even Russia, to countries that still admire and want something made in the UK....

Or should we continue to tie ourselves to a group of countries with nothing to offer but self interest, a European dictatorship telling us what we can or can't do whist benefiting from our demise. 

Will we starve no, will it be difficult to import goods and services from Europe, hopefully yes. If it's difficult to import a certain relay from Germany supply and demand dictates it won't be long before the UK will produce it's own. We may lose a few companies, we stand to gain many.

So let's just get on with it.

 

 

[calvan]

A few days ago I was having coffee with some friends when, out of the blue, one of them asked me what I thought  of the whole UK/EU/Brexit situation. My  immediate reaction was to blurt out "It's a rolling clusterf@#k."

I hope that I wasn't too far out of the bounds of accuracy and propriety with that assessment.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

OK then, cards on the table. I have dipped in and out of this thread intermittently since it began in 2016. There was an active Remain / Leave debate on here back then. I voted Remain so was one of those who lost the referendum. I guess it is unsurprising that Remainer thread activity on here has fallen away since then.

Now that we are approaching the end-game I popped back in again to learn what people think will actually happen, since it is clearly going to have a major impact on all of our futures. Instead I find that the thread has turned into some kind of Bremoaner media gossip column, with posters telling us that "He said this" or "She said that". Clearly nothing anyone writes on here will make the slightest difference to what is going to happen. I just want to know how TLFers think this will pan out over the next 4 months.

Correct me if I am wrong, but it is almost universally assumed that Teresa May's deal will get voted down on 11 December 2018. She (and the EU) has repeatedly confirmed that there is no other Deal available, so we revert to a No Deal scenario by default. Yes, she may have been a Remainer but the Conservative Party themselves elected her to lead us through the negotiations ahead of other high profile candidates. If the Commons vote is indeed No to her Deal, then should she not stand down as having fundamentally failed in her efforts?

In my opinion this is when it gets really tricky. There's only one thing the Conservative Brexiteer MPs worry about more than staying in the EU and that is staying in their own jobs. If Teresa May goes, then the clamour for a General Election will be enormous from all of the other Parties, who currently have a combined majority of the Commons seats. Having already seen how poorly the last GE went for the Conservative Party under more benign circumstances, I believe they will do whatever they can to prevent a GE being called and attempt to see out the rest of the term until 2022. Whether that means keeping Teresa May in the top job, or yet another no-mandate internal appointment, what do you guys think? I tend to agree with C8RKH that she will stay on: I think it is very interesting that it appears that Jacob Rees-Mogg has failed in his attempt to get those 47 other letters of No Confidence in the PM from his colleagues. Had he achieved this, it would have played right into Corbyn's GE-seeking hands, so maybe the rest of the Party is worrying about their own jobs and doesn't want to risk a coup.

Finally one other question: what happens to the NI border after 29.03.19 in the event of No Deal and WTO rules being introduced?

[Andyww]

I would not like to predict any of the above in detail but I will predict that we will and up with the "Hotel California" solution where we check out but never leave.

Unfortunately thats the only "solution" (if it can be called that) which resolves the NI issue.

[Neal H]

My view....

I don't necessarily think it will get voted down. It may do first time around, but it will then be back for a second vote after a lot of internal deal making. If it does get voted down, parliament simply won't accept a no-deal option, so we'll be back to the EU, begging bowl in hand, pleading to extend the deadline, which they'll agree to in exchange for a further €xxbn payment.

As a supporter of a no-deal exit, I would like to think that the result of voting down this 'deal' will result in a no-deal Brexit by default (right outcome for the wrong reason!), but it will never happen.

[MPx]

Just on the "this is the only deal available" line....does anyone actually believe that?   I can believe it is with the caveat "by the deadline", but otherwise its utter BS.  We may be the first to leave so there is no precedent for a divorce settlement, but we aren't the first to want a cooperative relationship with the EU from outside the EU and there appears to be a number of different deals that other countries have got with the EU so they don't always apply a one size fits all take it or leave it philosophy.  The only reason they are able to sustain their line is because we have clearly been made scared to death of no deal as the experts claim we will all be some extreme of worse off the next day.  Some will be, but some will do better - that is the nature of change.  The great divide here (apart from the currently haves and currently have nots directly affected) is whether you believe in the long term the UK will do better as an independent economy or as part of the EU.   Size matters but the complexity and bureaucracy of the EU slows it down too much to remain competitive.  Hence the 10 year plus lead times for trade deals - it shouldn't need to take that long - it doesn't need to be as complex as that.

Either way my fundamental brexit driver is wanting someone in power who it is possible to remove.  The EU isn't set up like that.  A two party system like ours is deeply flawed.  You have to have one or the other despite half of either side's policies/personalities being completely unpalatable - they then claim a huge mandate for their nutter ideas when they win a GE.  But at least you can switch at the next GE so if the madness and greed become despotic there is a sanction.  If the EU had more than one "party" and more than one "manifesto" then I'd be happy enough to be in the United States of Europe run by the least bad elected government.  Better still if there were many parties and no majorities and the resultant coalitions had to cooperate to get anything done.  That slows things down but at least stops the more outrageous flights of fancy.  Until then crashing out is a "better" deal than what's on the table.

[Barrykearley]

I’m starting to worry now. 

We wont have any fresh water, Sterling is gonna fall through the floor, interest rates will rocket, our house prices will collapse, pensions ruined......... hang on 🤔 haven’t we heard all this bullshit before?

[Kimbers]

And the treasury have said even with a deal Brexit our economy will shrink by the biggest amount since WW2.

Of course they don't have any vested interest in Brexit and of course they were 100% correct when they said the same would happen after the referendum.....................not

[pete]

These are scenarios not forecasts so why put them out as if they are fact

[PaulCP]

8 minutes ago, Kimbers said:

And the treasury have said even with a deal Brexit our economy will shrink by the biggest amount since WW2.

Of course they don't have any vested interest in Brexit and of course they were 100% correct when they said the same would happen after the referendum.....................not

Anybody remember that not long into the mid 2000s Financial Crisis, both the Treasury and the BOE told us we were on the turn upwards and outwards just before the big 2 year dive.

It’s all opinions without justifiable quatified and qualified data, the truth only comes sometime after the events

[CHANGES]

1 hour ago, pete said:

These are scenarios not forecasts so why put them out as if they are fact

Media scare stories by those who want to create panic so the general public will cave in and ask to stay in the EU...

Its been happening since day 1.... there is no one in the media with a loud enough voice to challenge the statements..  anyone who does try, gets shouted down, sacked, retired, or ridiculed.   There is a very big power out there with a very big voice that has not got its way with the Brexit vote .  What we are seeing is their tantrum.  Unfortunately T.May is not shouting back , she is trying to mediate instead of saying '' out means out''   The way things are going it is starting to look like she is part of the conspiracy..     The best outcome is No Deal now.   Government needs to grow a pair and stand up for the UK instead of pandering to the EU..  After a no deal the EU will soon start to capitulate and good deals for both will be struck, be it one by one and slow .   In the initial interim period while they try to be awkward , we will be free to set up trade with the USA and the rest of the world...  If the EU does not move quick it will end up missing the boat...     OUT means OUT... 

sometimes you just have to stand up to the bully...         

[Andyww]

There is quite a big change in the media position because the Daily Mail, which has the largest circulation and the most viewed website has changed from leave to remain with its recent change of editor.

[pete]

Labour now say a second referendum is inevitable. Bet the question won't be deal or no deal

[Chillidoggy]

2 hours ago, pete said:

These are scenarios not forecasts so why put them out as if they are fact

And right now Sky News are busy doing just that with the BoE scenarios.

[Barrykearley]

1 hour ago, pete said:

Labour now say a second referendum is inevitable. Bet the question won't be deal or no deal

It’ll be do you wish to remain or remain 

[duncx]

If/when the deal gets voted down......

There will be no general election because turkeys don't vote for Christmas and despite everything the conservatives are still the best (by far) option for the DUP. There might be a leadership challenge and with our political system that's perfectly ok, the new conservative PM can continue until the end of the fixed term if he/she has the stomach for it.

The legislation is already in place for us to leave the EU in March, with or without a deal - in fact I believe it needs NEW legislation to be passed to stop it happening and this will take time. So,there's a real possibility that if the deal gets thrown out by parliament then we leave without one and everyone dies from thirst and starvation the next day.

Parliament could vote through a second referendum but it takes time to do this and again, time is very tight and can you imagine the arguments on how to word the question(s)? My fear for democracy is that they will give a 3-way choice...

1) Stay in the EU

2) Leave the EU with May's deal

3) Leave the EU with no deal

.......thus splitting the leave vote to give 'stay in the EU' a big majority and give the politicians what they want.

My HOPE is that a referendum would simply ask....

1) Stay

2) Leave with no deal

........ this is the only way to get an unambiguous answer and the only way to be sure that the will of the people can be done without any further argument about what it means.

 

Finally, they could go for the ultimate fudge, pass some legislation to extend the article 50 period for another year and kick the can down the road ....again 

 

[Bibs]

@Buddsy just posted this on facebook. She gets it, Merkel doesn't seem impressed though!.

It's also critically important to remember that the EU are out to royal shaft our whole country to stop others from leaving as she reminds us at the beginning. Who are the EU to try to ruin us as an example to others, this isn't a school yard. 

 

[C8RKH]

Wow, properly researched and presented POV in a calm and clear manner. Can we have this politician in the UK?  Also, i'd happily take her to dinner and pay for the privilege to hear more! I wouldn't make that offer to a single useless UK politician.

Meanwhile, back in the UK, Corbyn objects to the BBC offer of timing for the joint leaders debate, saying he would prefer ITV to host as they would ensure it did not clash with  the final of I'm a Celebrity. WTF have we become? Really?  Anyone on here still seriously think that this absolute joke of a leader has the credentials to lead this country?

Are we seeing the slow burning of Brussels as Nero and his cronies fail to see the flames leaping up at them? Is the old EU guard changing, for the new?

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

Interesting speech and worth watching just to see shots of Merkel's stoney face. But please remember that AfD is the new far right wing Party that is causing so much political turbulence in Germany, particularly in the former East German territories.  Her's is not the view of the vast majority of Germans.

[Bibs]

She's talking sense though, that's what I liked.

[PaulCP]

43 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

 

Meanwhile, back in the UK, Corbyn objects to the BBC offer of timing for the joint leaders debate, saying he would prefer ITV to host as they would ensure it did not clash with  the final of I'm a Celebrity. WTF have we become? Really?  Anyone on here still seriously think that this absolute joke of a leader has the credentials to lead this country?

 

Exactly, not just a pathetic politician but a thoroughly pathetic individual who, given his past record of providing U.K. secrets to Russia, Palestine etc should bar him from being any kind of a public figure

His only view as leader of the opposition is to oppose everything, as once again demonstrated, and push for his own vested gain and collapse the U.K. economy. He has never uttered one constructive word in his life