Classic car market post COVID

[LOTUSMAN33]

I have been watching the classic market for years and you see the latest trends and model spikes, as always the prices peak and everyone scrambles for the barn finds starting restorations then the market becomes flooded with good cars. The market sits high and the barn find price rises and the next trend hits so prices like a slow puncture decline to a stable level.

Without doubt Hot Hatches are the car of the moment with really strong values especially with Fast Fords from the 80’s and 90’s which falls in line with the age group of buyers.

Early classic car prices have dropped without doubt in many cases (not all) so anything from the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s seem quite cheap these days with 60’s cars at sensible money.

The market has been good for a long time but lately I have seen cars for sale in some cases for years and scanning classifieds I just skip by lots only focusing attention on newer adverts.

I think one which caught my eye was the silver S2 Esprit only fetching £7800 on eBay recently after a couple listings in good restorable original condition sporting a good chassis and complete throughout. A couple years ago this would have sold at around £12k to £14k very quickly. 

Yet I watch Cosworth’s now selling for crazy money even in quite tatty condition (£86k), these cars were £25-30k a few years back.

Turbo charged Jap cars are on the rise with the next generation of enthusiasts coming to the age where life has settled and they reminisce over cars from their early driving days.

Interesting debate I’m sure will ensue with mixed opinions 😂

What is the view as Covid becomes part of our everyday life and we as tax payers start to pick up the costs along with the unfortunate rise in unemployment? 

I think we are heading for interesting times and not easy to predict at this range?

Dave   

[pete]

what could be more of aproblem is the burgeoning leasing market of new cars underwritten by the car industry, think total debt is around 9o billion and in the states in the trillions. If this all goes tits up then it must have a knock on effect to the classic car market

[Bazza 907]

Classic car prices peaked in 1989 and fell. They did the same thing in the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and are doing the same now.

The economy is getting covid battered and it will get much worse before it gets any better. Classic cars are a discretionary spend and have been ramped up, in part, by dismal investment returns.

It's therefore hard to see how the current bubble is going to do anything but pop. As Dave says, the peak has already been reached and we're on the way down albeit that it won't be in unison. In my view that's really no bad thing as it will hopefully allow enthusiasts who actually want top own and drive the classic cars a change to buy them at realistic prices. 

[pete]

so dave could buy your essex soon😂

[Bazza 907]

Pete

He might be able to, if it was for sale of course, but it isn't. 😀

[Chillidoggy]

1 hour ago, pete said:

what could be more of aproblem is the burgeoning leasing market of new cars underwritten by the car industry, think total debt is around 9o billion and in the states in the trillions. If this all goes tits up then it must have a knock on effect to the classic car market

Good point. I’ve had my Focus on a PCP for just over a year. There’s no way I can see it being worth what Ford predicted it will in a couple of years time. Those people coming to the end of a PCP inhe not too distant future might well find the same.

[LOTUSMAN33]

1 hour ago, Bazza 907 said:

Pete

He might be able to, if it was for sale of course, but it isn't. 😀

😢 Come on Barry you would look great in an Evora 😁👍🏻

[Barrykearley]

2 hours ago, Bazza 907 said:

Classic car prices peaked in 1989 and fell. They did the same thing in the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and are doing the same now.

The economy is getting covid battered and it will get much worse before it gets any better. Classic cars are a discretionary spend and have been ramped up, in part, by dismal investment returns.

It's therefore hard to see how the current bubble is going to do anything but pop. As Dave says, the peak has already been reached and we're on the way down albeit that it won't be in unison. In my view that's really no bad thing as it will hopefully allow enthusiasts who actually want top own and drive the classic cars a change to buy them at realistic prices. 

The top end market always suffers badly at times like these. The bottom end upto £5k sector however will probably remain totally unaffected. 

only time will tell - I’m hoping for an absolute collapse - then I’m off shopping for a Noble

[PAR]

If I can help anyone get rid at really really low prices of a European M100 or a Any Esprit S4s or GT3, that would be my pleasure!

[Dave Eds]

3 hours ago, LOTUSMAN33 said:

😢 Come on Barry you would look great in an Evora 😁👍🏻

Think you mean he'll feel great in one......

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

I can say from decades of experience that the next Big Thing to shoot up in value will be whatever I sell next.

[Nelly]

6 hours ago, LOTUSMAN33 said:

Without doubt Hot Hatches are the car of the moment with really strong values especially with Fast Fords from the 80’s and 90’s which falls in line with the age group of buyers.

Early classic car prices have dropped without doubt in many cases (not all) so anything from the 30’s, 40’s and 50’s seem quite cheap these days with 60’s cars at sensible money.

I think one which caught my eye was the silver S2 Esprit only fetching £7800 on eBay recently after a couple listings in good restorable original condition sporting a good chassis and complete throughout. A couple years ago this would have sold at around £12k to £14k very quickly. 

 

I lust after a Mk2 Fiesta XR2 as I had one back in the day and loved it - my fave of all cars I have owned, so I think you are bang on with the first comment.

I also wonder about the older cars - I have no interest for anything pre 60's really, and as the older generation who cherish these older cars pass on I don't know if there is going to be much of an appetite to keep them going - I may be wrong, but surely the desire for a classic is a car you lusted after or once owned.  So if you have no connection to it, why take it on?

Finally, I have seen a lot of Esprits advertised for silly money because "classic prices are high" but they tend not to sell for anywhere near the asking price.

[Chillidoggy]

I remember Nick Mason being asked what he defined as a “classic car”. He replied that in his view it was “Something that was desirable when it was new.” 

[LOTUSMAN33]

1 hour ago, Nelly said:

I lust after a Mk2 Fiesta XR2 as I had one back in the day and loved it - my fave of all cars I have owned, so I think you are bang on with the first comment.

I also wonder about the older cars - I have no interest for anything pre 60's really, and as the older generation who cherish these older cars pass on I don't know if there is going to be much of an appetite to keep them going - I may be wrong, but surely the desire for a classic is a car you lusted after or once owned.  So if you have no connection to it, why take it on?

Finally, I have seen a lot of Esprits advertised for silly money because "classic prices are high" but they tend not to sell for anywhere near the asking price.

Neil

Agree the Mk2 XR2 was a superb car, mine was absolutely immaculate back in early 1993 when I owned this black beauty, I paid £2000 for it then with 40k on the clock selling it with 79k to buy.....

Paid £2500 for this one in 1994 again it was immaculate then in 1995 I upgraded to.....
My favourite hot hatch 😎👍🏻😁

Dave  

[cbclotus]

Hi all .Well I have just in the process of pulling my pension ......Still own my Marcos 1600 .And a tvr tasmin soft top ..Would like to find a s3 na .if poss .Allways sell cars and then regret it .lol. But my two hounds take a lot of our time .The one thing I would say is that the esprit  are special cars .like all lotus cars . .i don't think Esprits will drop much .Stay safe all .....Mike

[Mark030358]

Classic car buying is 90% age related, well with me anyway. Would I buy and Escort, Sierra nah, never in a million years. Now give me a Lotus Cortina, 1600E, Europa, Elan, TR5..... Plus I bought in this market because I wanted the cars, not to make money.

just my 2p.

[Nelly]

Totally with you @LOTUSMAN33, here was mine - puchased with 103,000 miles on the clock as it was the only one I could afford:

Went Orion 1.6i Ghia afterwards as mid nineties and insurance was going crazy (I was early 20's) but ideally wanted to go XR3i and then RS Turbo Escort,

[cor]

That is the attitude mark, just love the cars for what they are not for what they are worth.

just happy the lotus cars do not cost ferrari money so i have the luck to own some. 

[red vtec]

Having had some dealings with the market, dealing with very high end investment cars £1miilion++ I think the market will tank as it did in the 90's as Barry has said. A lot were being bought to avoid Capital gains tax, but I have heard that this may well be removed, therefore the incentive will not be there. People in the City getting a £100K bonus shoving it into an E-Type and selling it for £200K 12 months later, might not be so great if CGT hits them. 

After Covid there is going to be huge debits to pay back.

[Barrykearley]

Well looks like Coys are a casualty of this now

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/classic/classic-car-auction-house-coys-goes-administration/

[LOTUSMAN33]

6 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Well looks like Coys are a casualty of this now

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/classic/classic-car-auction-house-coys-goes-administration/

Guess this was inevitable although surprising it was such a big auction house who operate globally.

As already stated big time investors have not done the classic restoration by enthusiasts any favours over the past 10 years with so many dormant finds being snapped up, professionally given a make over for as smaller cost as possible then sold on for big bucks. I visit lots of classic car shows and must say generally the cars restored by the enthusiast with love are far better than the cars bought to turnaround.

We only have to look at our own restoration pages to see we don’t have the volume of posts like we did for full nut and bolt rebuilds as the cars just aren’t available.

I hope the slow puncture stays just that and over the next few years we see the decline as Barry stated allowing more enthusiasts to join the forum and market.

Dealers will do their best to inflate prices as long as possible to limit damage especially if they have money invested in high premium stock but will have to just cut their loses in the end.

Our favourite everyday online auction often shows the true market value if cars are listed to sell without reserve, I have seen and bought many of my classics this way knowing I paid the market value (you need to be aware of self bidding) if you can pick the honest sellers. 

In the future BMW’s (yuck) will be the thing I’m sure to restore as the car of the moment for our young like Jap stuff was 10 years ago. Invest in Evo’s, Scooby’s and Skylines now locking them away 😂

Then we have the age of electric........ enjoy our classics when we can as technology is going to change the way we travel without any doubt along with roads.

Dave  
 

[pete]

7 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Well looks like Coys are a casualty of this now

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/classic/classic-car-auction-house-coys-goes-administration/

Quite a few horror stories about them on the internet

[Bazza 907]

7 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Well looks like Coys are a casualty of this now

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cars/classic/classic-car-auction-house-coys-goes-administration/

Went bust in 2004 too.

Must be on a 16 year cycle, or is that 17 from the man at the back?

[Barrykearley]

Yes @Bazza 907 and some folks didn’t get paid for their cars either when they did last time !!

[jps-1985]

i totally agree with mr masons view on classic cars a ford xr3 was a terrible car in its day i used to sell them when they were 4-5 yrs old and they were dredful in comparison to .a honda prelude gsi from same period , the honda was quicker more economicla , better built , drove better etc but they fetch nowt in comparison ... if just being old means its a classic , does that meen "agadoo " is a classic record LOL