Coronavirus

[exeterjeep]

Hopefully not like this flu:

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919.  In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918.

It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

So based on the current covid 19 death toll - 5.3million ish, then covid 19 is a bit over 10% of the 1918 pandemic. And the world population was less then as well.

[SFO]

1 hour ago, gregs24 said:

To be fair there is no current evidence that 'omicron' is less virulent.

But there is some evidence from South Africa .. yes, it may be specific to South Africa's circumstances.

but the UK population also has a high baseline level of immunity thanks to vaccines and months of high infections. 

it is also true that ALL of the modelling by Professor Lockdown from Imperial, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and SAGE have been wildly over pessimistic. It was only in July that the Government's position was that 100,000 cases a day was "acceptable" and now it seems like Armageddon is here at circa 90k cases 

the problem is to do with folks having to self isolate, not so much actual CV19 sickness 

[Kimbers]

1 hour ago, Bibs said:

I think when every single person has immunity from either having it or being vaccinated against it. That's a lot of people though! 

But thats the worrying thing. As you know my family are in the Health Sector and they are being told that it's strangely not creating antibodies after infection or the antibosdies disappear within a couple of months. Those of us who have had PCR's recently, you will not that they have added a question to the booking form "If you test Positive please can you give permission for us to test for antibodies (This may involve taking a blood sample)". The very reason for this is that those Nurses tested recently, after having COVID less than 3 months ago, show zero Antibodies. It's that quick. And that means you could catch it multiple times a year. 

[gregs24]

19 minutes ago, SFO said:

But there is some evidence from South Africa .. yes, it may be specific to South Africa's circumstances.

but the UK population also has a high baseline level of immunity thanks to vaccines and months of high infections. 

it is also true that ALL of the modelling by Professor Lockdown from Imperial, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and SAGE have been wildly over pessimistic. It was only in July that the Government's position was that 100,000 cases a day was "acceptable" and now it seems like Armageddon is here at circa 90k cases 

the problem is to do with folks having to self isolate, not so much actual CV19 sickness 

It should be remembered that we are not at 90k cases today. We were at 90k cases about 8 days ago, that is when those positive tests became infected. My son had a positive test result on Saturday, he caught COVID 10 days earlier. We are probably close to a million infections a day as of today based on the doubling every 2 days. This is why any measures taken now are probably too late. Additionally cases were not doubling every 2 days last summer, far from it.

There is very clear evidence that shedding of viable virus stops around day 8 to 9 after symptoms start so the 10 day isolation is completely sensible. 

1 hour ago, exeterjeep said:

Hopefully not like this flu:

The 1918 influenza pandemic was the most severe pandemic in recent history. It was caused by an H1N1 virus with genes of avian origin. Although there is not universal consensus regarding where the virus originated, it spread worldwide during 1918-1919.  In the United States, it was first identified in military personnel in spring 1918.

It is estimated that about 500 million people or one-third of the world’s population became infected with this virus. The number of deaths was estimated to be at least 50 million worldwide with about 675,000 occurring in the United States. Mortality was high in people younger than 5 years old, 20-40 years old, and 65 years and older. The high mortality in healthy people, including those in the 20-40 year age group, was a unique feature of this pandemic.

So based on the current covid 19 death toll - 5.3million ish, then covid 19 is a bit over 10% of the 1918 pandemic. And the world population was less then as well.

But there was also no vaccine and no effective intensive care and anti viral drugs. Even O2 therapy was in it's infancy then. 

[gregs24]

3 minutes ago, Kimbers said:

But thats the worrying thing. As you know my family are in the Health Sector and they are being told that it's strangely not creating antibodies after infection or the antibosdies disappear within a couple of months. Those of us who have had PCR's recently, you will not that they have added a question to the booking form "If you test Positive please can you give permission for us to test for antibodies (This may involve taking a blood sample)". The very reason for this is that those Nurses tested recently, after having COVID less than 3 months ago, show zero Antibodies. It's that quick. And that means you could catch it multiple times a year. 

Neutralising antibodies are only a small part of the immune protection though. Yes they are brilliant at fighting an infection, but even when they have gone you are not back to square one.

[SFO]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/five-lockdown-questions-that-cabinet-needs-to-ask

4 minutes ago, gregs24 said:

Neutralising antibodies are only a small part of the immune protection though. Yes they are brilliant at fighting an infection, but even when they have gone you are not back to square one.

Exactly, you still have the T cells

[gregs24]

1 hour ago, Kimbers said:

Listening too much to Lobbiests for Business unfortunately. But many places are struggling for staff as people go off sick and self isolating so if Omecron is as virulent as they say then shops may all be shut anyway!

My biggest issue is when does this end? It seems to be engineered to mutate and its just going to keep coming back again and again! They need to really do some hardcore work on it over the next year or 2 or else this could be the norm and no businesses will survive!!

But if you ignore the economic impacts people will die for other reasons

It will not 'end' as such. There is a human coronavirus doing the rounds causing the common cold that originated about 120 years ago. COVID19 will become just one of those viruses in time. It will take a mighty mutation to out do 'omicron' in terms of transmissibility so this may end up being the dominant strain. So the future is ensuring booster vaccinations keep up with mutations, especially those with vaccine escape properties. The next vaccines will probably be multivalent providing protection against many different specific strains.

I have no doubt this wave will be the biggest, but also probably the shortest. COVID cases in SA seem to have peaked already after about 3 weeks, but that peak was double the delta peak in the summer that took weeks to climb up. For a doubling rate of 2 days that really is about all it can manage as it will rapidly run out of hosts

1 hour ago, Bibs said:

I think when every single person has immunity from either having it or being vaccinated against it. That's a lot of people though! 

Latest data suggests 98% of the population have some form of immunity to COVID, through vaccination or natural infection. Unfortunately it doesn't stop you catching it again or transmitting it, as in it is not a sterilising immunity.

[Sparky]

Tracy and I were jabbed first in March, then in May.  We are part of an antibody study and test every month, and at end November (just prior to boosters) we still had antibodies.  No volume detail though.

[Kimbers]

Let's keep this polite please everyone. We have many and Varied views here which we thrive on, but lets agree to disagree with many and varied subjects rather than getting angry or offended.

Mr @C8RKH has a reason for this (Not one I agree with as both my Wife and Daughter work in said Medic industry) and that's his right.

But Likewise @gregs24 has his own views that need to be respected. In terms of what Andy said earlier Gregs I have reread it and it wasn't aimed at your comments in fact he was agreeing with you that the economic impacts can't be ignored and can cause more issues.

So please, lets keep it nice. Thanks

[exeterjeep]

Even the Queen is changing Christmas plans..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59735413

The Queen has cancelled her traditional Christmas.

[Barrykearley]

11 hours ago, Kimbers said:

What Nay sayers like Barry don't understand is how much COVD effects you longer term than, say, a cold. When I had COVID in May I was ill but not hospitalised. It was like a really nasty cold. However, you get over a really nasty cold quickly, I had long term health effects with my breathing, joint and muscle pains and fatigue for well over 6 months after. I was still on Steroids and a powerful inhaler a year after.

 

Having had it myself - and a daughter who’s had it twice with really bad long covid issues - I’m not a naysayer - but I will be dead one day anyway. If they keep locking us all down - there’s quality of life gone.

[Colin P]

Agree with @Barrykearley here. We have as much protection as we are going to get, we need to keep the vaccines up to date and reflecting mutations and keep boosting, but life has to go on and lockdowns simply cannot continue. Do we want to be locking down next winter, or the year after - because if we do this winter it would most definitely be on the cards.

If there is such a concern that the hospitals cannot cope then why are the "nightingale" hospitals not being set up again.

Whilst it should be unnecessary it is evident that there are large elements of the UK populous that are incapable of behaving in a considerate manner, or taking personal responsibility, therefore what is however needed is some ongoing personal restrictions (Mask wearing etc). How far these go for the unvaccinated is where I suspect Mr K and I will probably diverge in opinion, especially when it comes to COVID passports for certain venues.

 

[Kimbers]

I don't disagree with either of you.

But what the Govt are seeing (and NHS Staff) is that any further demand on their underfunded service with no real alternative in this country, may crash the system. Infact it already is. Our Hospitals in my area have an 8 hour waiting in A&E if you are lucky, Ambulances sit outside with patients being treated in the ambulances for up to 12 hours! Our Doctors close once a week because they don't have enough Doctors and they need one day off at least and even when they are open you can't contact them, even via email, after 3pm. 

I 100% agree we need to be able to get on and live our lives, but the only way I see it possibly working is if we make vaccination Compulsory, boosters every year (at least once a year) and make it so difficult not to have it (Passports to get in even shops and restaurants or work in a job) that everyone is covered. Also masks and distancing measures.

However that won't happen in this country. I do see it working in Austria, Germany and many of the European countries because they have a more militaristic outlook on life (Their police forces are paramilitary not by consent etc etc), however I think in those countries like us and France, I just don't see any Government having the balls to do what is necessary!

Me? I'm selling up and moving to Cyprus. i'd rather be locked down in a nice Villa with a pool, than here! (Yes I seriously am thinking of it).

[Barrykearley]

@Colin P I’m afraid I’m not a believer in apartheid - it was abhorrent in SA and remains the same today.

what it appears to me is there’s considerable swing towards a more controlling way of life from those whom know better - “government” - all I see is a bunch of self interested pigs at a trough. 

If they start on with compulsory vaccines - then the rioting will start. 
 

maybe after all these years - the revolution is a coming

[Bling]

I think that for the good of society, everyone needs to be vaccinated. It should be no different to the flu vaccine. I don't worry about catching it myself but I do worry for my parents. More importantly, I worry that should you have a serious illness like a heart attack or cancer, the NHS will not have the capacity to treat you due to being overwhelmed by Covid cases or a shortage of staff due to being ill.

[Colin P]

31 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

@Colin P I’m afraid I’m not a believer in apartheid - it was abhorrent in SA and remains the same today.

 

Apartheid is not something you could opt out of by taking a vaccine and being black does not increase the risk of illness or death to those around you. COVID vaccines are optional and lack of a vaccine does increase the risk to those around you.

As elsewhere stated I do not advocate compulsory vaccination, but as with all things in life there are consequences to decisions that one makes and if that means that for the safety of others you are prevented from attending densely populated events, or have to prove a negative test status to do so then I can live with that.

As I said this is where our opinions will diverge and I understand why you feel that way, but I don't think using apartheid to try and make the point is proportional. 

[Barrykearley]

The government and other governments are going to try and introduce a division in society - between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated.

its bullshit I’m afraid. A vaccine is no different from natural immunity following infection. We are on a very dangerous path indeed.

[Bibs]

Or, in an alternative theory, they just don't want people to die unnecessarily? 

 

[Barrykearley]

I’d agree @Bibs - maybe they don’t. They do profit just nicely when folks do though.

another thought though is imagine 5years ago had the government suggested compulsory vaccinations against a 99.7% survival illness and those whom refused where banished from pubs, clubs, cinemas, sport events etc - do you think they would have been taken seriously? Had this been Ebola then I would understand - it’s not.

[TTim]

28 minutes ago, ramjet said:

Is it just me or is the 99.7% survival illness a pointless statistic as that is not the point. It is the burden that every medical system ends up with when people do get sick. Multiply that by the spreading factor and systems can quickly run into trouble.

There are an estimated 1 million undiagnosed cancers across Europe secondary to the stresses but on the health system and cancellation of normal screening programs. This will also start to add to the stress when people start turning up with late stage incurable tumors like they did in the 1920s!

[eeyoreish]

There’s no doubt that the NHS in the UK needs better funding if it’s to deal with COVID and the backlog of other work from the last 2 years. Something which will be made even more difficult if lockdowns cause many more businesses to go into loss making or close down completely, reducing the taxes they contribute…

Quite a balancing act, and no doubt why the Government are carefully considering whether repeated lockdowns are in fact sustainable and/or the long term answer.

[sailorbob]

On 20/12/2021 at 12:16, gregs24 said:

I think there is little doubt (looking at the latest data) that 'omicron' is doubling every 2 days and that case numbers (even just those confirmed via PCR) are sky rocketing.

I think there is doubt. There is an uptick in positive test results from the 13th onwards but nothing like a doubling every two days.

[Barrykearley]

Remember with statistics you can make the numbers say anything to back up an argument 

[eeyoreish]

Surely a significant effect on the daily ‘cases’ number is that everyone and his dog now seems to be encouraged to do lateral flows almost daily?

So now we will be seeing many more asymptomatic ‘cases’ that could have been there already but would have gone undetected.

[Bibs]

A few comments in this topic have recently been removed by myself and the moderator team. 

Please remember that anything posted in read far and wide and can affect different people in different ways so consider this before you click 'reply'. 

Thanks