Coronavirus

[gregs24]

55 minutes ago, windymiller said:

see we have a new variant detected in south africa and five other nations nicknamed the "nu" variant so here we go again 😒

If anybody thinks COVID is over strain B.1.1.529 has other ideas. Look how quickly it is dominating cases in SA in just a few weeks. Clearly very contagious, big question is how effective vaccines are against it. One thing for sure it will spread around the world if more contagious than 'delta'. You only have to look at how 'delta' rapidly overwhelmed 'beta' to see what happens when a more contagious strain appears.

For various reasons it either came from a wildlife host (Rhesus Monkey) or a very protracted human case (months) for whatever reason.

I have little doubt it will take over from 'delta' on the basis of this information, and that it is driving a new powerful wave of infections in SA. Will need to establish how it behaves clinically. The single case in Hong Kong was asymptomatic and had recently travelled from SA

Edited November 25, 2021 by gregs24

[windymiller]

joy !!! 😒

[andydclements]

Socially distanced (mandated) Christmas then.

[Bibs]

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/new-covid19-variant-may-be-worse-than-nearly-anything-else-about-warn-scientists

Only 82 cases so far and no hospitalisations but it doesn't look ideal.

[Barrykearley]

So far the mass extinction of the human race predicted by many scientists hasn’t come to fruition. Only time will tell - but if it’s like the other dozens of times that they have predicted the end of the world - I’d say it’s time to actually start living life.

[eeyoreish]

Any of this seem familiar? A few weeks out from Christmas, a new 'variant of concern' and warnings of possible vaccine avoidance...

Anyone betting on another Christmas or post Christmas lockdown? ☹️

[exeterjeep]

Handful of cases elsewhere now - Belgium, Israel and Hong Kong. Starting to look more concerning? Loo rolls in stock anyone?

[SFO]

3 hours ago, Bibs said:

https://www.iflscience.com/health-and-medicine/new-covid19-variant-may-be-worse-than-nearly-anything-else-about-warn-scientists

Only 82 cases so far and no hospitalisations but it doesn't look ideal.

That's encouraging 

 

media are reporting, and stock markets are reacting, as IF nu is much more transmissible and evades vaccines. All these sorts of words are ignored: "may", "could", "might", "potentially" ..

we just love to panic first and look at the evidence later .. pure click bait 

 

[gregs24]

It is suspected that there is significant community spread in SA, so a lot more than the reported number of cases. The Belgian case was from somebody who was in Eqypt 11 days before.

It is likely vaccines will still provide a benefit but maybe reduced. Pfizer expect to be able to tell how much loss of efficacy there will be to their vaccine within 2 weeks. There are updated vaccines at an advanced state which could rapidly be released for use if required although availability and actually getting it into people is another thing. 

The real risk, even if the new strain is no more deadly, is increased ability to spread will increase cases at a time when we really don't need it. The pressure of cases on the NHS (mostly from unvaccinated people) has a knock on effect on all of us as there are only finite resources. So if you are having elective surgery or have an accident you want to hope the hospitals are not full up with COVID patients! Death rates have never been the main problem (unless it happens to be you that died), it is the huge number of sick people needing treatment bunging up our healthcare system, and the knock on effects that has. 

It isn't going to be a case of back to square one, but it may be a significant backward step.

Some have suggested if there wasn't already an ongoing pandemic then this strain would have been named COVID21, it is that different.

[gregs24]

15 minutes ago, SFO said:

That's encouraging 

 

media are reporting, and stock markets are reacting, as IF nu is much more transmissible and evades vaccines. All these sorts of words are ignored: "may", "could", "might", "potentially" ..

we just love to panic first and look at the evidence later .. pure click bait 

 

The media are not the source of information on this, but as you say they do like a good story. However there are very real concerns about this strain that seems to be rapidly overwhelming 'delta' in SA which itself overwhelmed other strains globally. That is not something you want to see. It is likely causing the huge surge in cases in SA. That it is more contagious seems almost certain, let's hope it is not more clinically significant. You never know, if we are really lucky it may be less clinically severe, in which case being more contagious would be brilliant! We will know a lot more in 2 or 3 weeks, but in the meantime slowing the inevitable spread is a good thing (assuming more contagious than 'delta').

[TdM]

20 minutes ago, SFO said:

That's encouraging 

 

media are reporting, and stock markets are reacting, as IF nu is much more transmissible and evades vaccines. All these sorts of words are ignored: "may", "could", "might", "potentially" ..

we just love to panic first and look at the evidence later .. pure click bait 

 

To be fair, leaving the media out, who are total drama queens, the markets are supposed to react. They will price in a bad case scenario as they are naturally risk averse.

Gives us an opportunity to bag cheap shares a few times a year.

[exeterjeep]

The new coronavirus variant has "many red flags - more than we would've expected or ever planned for", says Sir Peter Horby, professor of emerging infectious diseases at the University of Oxford.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

I’m starting to feel like a pin cushion! Just had my 5th vaccination within 12 months (3x Covid and 2x flu). Apart from the odd tetanus booster and tropical country jabs, I hadn’t been near a needle for the best part of 40 years! If the above is correct, we’ll probably need another couple in the New Year.

[windymiller]

i still cant work out why everyone had the jab in the arm but i had to pull ma trusers down and bend over a table ??😒

[exeterjeep]

1 minute ago, LotusLeftLotusRight said:

we’ll probably need another couple in the New Year.

Suspect now that we are more likely to have most adults will need ongoing boosters

[ramjet]

5 hours ago, windymiller said:

i still cant work out why everyone had the jab in the arm but i had to pull ma trusers down and bend over a table ??😒

Different type of ‘jab’?

Did it feel rhythmic at all?🤔

[windymiller]

10 hours ago, ramjet said:

Different type of ‘jab’?

Did it feel rhythmic at all?🤔

they said youll feel a little prick and i wondered who was holding the needle when i felt two hands on ma shoulders ??🤨

[910Esprit]

This isn't particularly reassuring that SA have effective travel controls in place...   

[Barrykearley]

SA have no interest in travel controls - and we’re hugely critical of the uk for placing them on the red list.

The article looks like they have only isolated those whom tested positive - if that’s true - then what about the other “hundreds” of passengers whom are likely to be harbouring the virus after such close contact.

[windymiller]

headlines of some of the papers today is that the new variant is already here and im sure it probably is or will be 😑

[ramjet]

It is already in Hong Kong according to our news tonight.

[SFO]

4 hours ago, 910Esprit said:

This isn't particularly reassuring that SA have effective travel controls in place...   

It's one in 10 testing positive. Not known how many, if any, of the 61 cases are Omnicrom 

[gregs24]

5 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

SA have no interest in travel controls - and we’re hugely critical of the uk for placing them on the red list.

The article looks like they have only isolated those whom tested positive - if that’s true - then what about the other “hundreds” of passengers whom are likely to be harbouring the virus after such close contact.

 

 

Travel controls are determined by the destination country and it is the legal responsibility of the carrier to apply them. Failure to comply results in no boarding or rejection at the destination and the airline is obliged to take the person back. SA airport authorities have no part to play in this.

Arrivals into Holland have to show proof of vaccination or a negative test if not vaccinated. So if vaccinated then none of the travellers would require a test before departure.

What is amazing is the numbers and also the apparent lack of symptoms. This is around 5% of the two planes that are asymptomatic carriers. The Hong Kong case was asymptomatic and the Belgian case was also thus. Tentatively this would suggest the vaccination is providing significant protection against whatever variant they have, but more rigorous data analysis is required over the next 2 or 3 weeks. Pfizer will also have their results soon.

I'm sure the other passengers will be traced, but there is nothing to suggest this is actually unusual. Normally the passengers would not have been tested. The virus is endemic, both in Holland and the UK, the fuss is over the new strain.

3 hours ago, windymiller said:

headlines of some of the papers today is that the new variant is already here and im sure it probably is or will be 😑

Indeed. Slowing direct flights will reduce the seeding short term, but in reality only by a week or two. If 'omicron' is more transmissible than 'delta' it will rapidly take over, if it isn't it will not. Simple as that.

Edited November 27, 2021 by gregs24

[gregs24]

Already here 

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59445388

[windymiller]

so face masks back in shops and public transport ?? boris on the box at mo