Is electric really the answer?

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

7 hours ago, C8RKH said:

Cars will be phased out of the towns and cities and replaced by ….. walking

Never!

[C8RKH]

You can put your head in the sand all you like. It's coming.

London will be the first UK city to ban cars.

I predict a race between Oxford and Glasgow as to who will be second!

[Barrykearley]

Just check out some of the Ev bargains - Merca, Tesla, jag, pork.

all dropping like stones in value

[C8RKH]

I had a very interesting conversation with an EV industry guy.

He has no interest in buying ANY of the new crop of current EV's. He believes within 5 years they'll all be unsellable / a fraction of their current value.

Why?

Because he says the current EV's are like the first generation of iphones.  Their batteries and tech have wowed everyone, because it's a;; shiny shiny new.

As a result, we'll view them like all the other tech. Great and loved whilst they are new, but then thrown away and unloved when the next shiny shiny upgrade comes along.

I don't totally agree with him, but, I think he has a point. The high end, premium EV's, are being sold based on "features". And, features are always improved, better, faster, sleeker and more sexy, on the latest model.

Buyer beware.

[Kimbers]

14 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

Just check out some of the Ev bargains - Merca, Tesla, jag, pork.

all dropping like stones in value

They are still dropping and their desirability rating is supremely low. So much so that dealers are £2000 behind the current trade values if you want to sell them one......and thats if they want it at all which they invariably don't.

Now is not the time to buy an EV believe me.

[Bibs]

On 23/01/2024 at 10:50, JimmytheTurbo said:

Has Polestar gone bust?

https://ijr.com/major-auto-company-shuts-funding-ev-subsidiary-immediately-sees-stock-price-boom

[Kevin Wheeler]

@C8RKH I refer you to my question in November on this thread:

 

[C8RKH]

Ha, no. Point made.

[pete]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/02/02/volvo-pulled-plug-electric-car-brand-polestar/

[Frickin_idiot]

Government mandates are always questionable. Banning Petrol / Diesel in such a short time and before the alternatives have matured to sufficient level is typical government - utterly ridiculous 

[C8RKH]

13 hours ago, Frickin_idiot said:

Government mandates are always questionable. Banning Petrol / Diesel in such a short time and before the alternatives have matured to sufficient level is typical government - utterly ridiculous 

Governments all over the west were responding to the fanatical climate change activists and poor science. What could possibly go wrong?

Here in Scotland, we have the Green Party in Government with the SNP. Everything the Green party have touched and forced through has been an absolute, unmitigating, disaster as far as i can see.

The same thing is happening with heat pumps that has happened with EV's. A blankey Government and Green Activist assertion that a heat pump is the "only" solution for every circumstance. Utter bollocks.

As for just stop oil - their complete lack of understanding of what would happen to the planet and the human population if we "just stopped oil" overnight is staggeringly in its naivety.

Yes, we do need to change our ways to help the planet to recover. But if we really want to "be the change" that is needed then we need to look at the whole, not just the convenient and obvious bits, to change.

For instance, we are nearing peak population on the planet. In the west, based on consumption per human, we have passed "peak population" which is the point at which we consume more than the planet can provide. In the West, up until around 75 -85 years ago, we produced more children because a significant percentage of those children would die before adulthood. It was not uncommon for families to have 5, 6, or 7 children and only 3 survive to adulthood for instance.

Today, the infant and child mortality rate is extremely low, so why are people having 3, 4, 5 or more kids? After the second world war, the population started to explode as (1) we had killed off a lot of our your lads in the war, and (2) advances in health, clean water, and nutrition meant that more of our young survived. From around 1960, the population exploded in the UK, but from a global perspective, it more than DOUBLED to over 8bn in just over 60 years!

The growth of population, globally, is the biggest, single, contributor to the impact on climate. I don't hear anyone advocating a ban on the number of kids people can produce. But, if they really wanted to "fix the climate" that's what they should be doing.

In India, significant parts of Asia, and South America the exploding populations are being supported by massive increases in family wealth (just as it was in the West). This is creating a vastly larger "middle class" and the middle classes consumer 2, 3 and even sometimes 4 times as much, per capita, as the poorer classes (as the top 1% consumer 5, 10, even 20 times more capita than the middle classes).

So, because no one, from Politicians, Activists, Governments, the UN or the WHO, wants to address the elephant in the room re population growth, we get these stupid initiatives, knee jerk reactions, that are ill thought through, like EVs, and that in the short term do more harm than good. We've poured so much effort, and so much natural, raw materials, into EV's then it will take us 100 years to get any real positive benefit back.

[exeterjeep]

Electric cars don't seem to be impacted by Paris vote.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68196828

The move triples parking rates for cars weighing 1.6 tonnes or more to €18 (£16; $20) an hour in inner Paris.

There are exemptions for fully electric cars, taxi drivers, tradespeople, health workers and people with disabilities.

 

[pete]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/feb/05/van-risk

[C8RKH]

This is the problem when investors and others get over excited and plough their money in speculatively.

How can a van manufacturer, who has never delivered a van, be valued at £15bn. Absolutely, totally bonkers and I laugh in the face of the people who drive that ridiculous valuation and expectation.

Polestar will be next. Tesla is struggling. Ford and GM looking at losses in their EV arms of billions. Renault pulling back on Ampere's listing.

There is nothing inherently wrong with BEV's, but they've pushed too hard, too fast, and just have not thought it through, nor prepared the infrastructure or public for this. In part, I suspect, the Governments have reacted to the early success of Musk and Tesla. A knee jerk reaction.

Edited February 6 by Bravo73

[drdoom]

8 hours ago, exeterjeep said:

Electric cars don't seem to be impacted by Paris vote.....

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68196828

The move triples parking rates for cars weighing 1.6 tonnes or more to €18 (£16; $20) an hour in inner Paris.

There are exemptions for fully electric cars, taxi drivers, tradespeople, health workers and people with disabilities.

 

Quite enjoy driving on holiday in Europe but damned if I care to venture near Paris, or any other major city for that matter.

[pete]

the goverment thinks there is too much negative press about EV`s and issued it`s own guidance 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electric-vehicles-costs-charging-and-infrastructure/electric-vehicles-costs-charging-and-infrastructure

[C8RKH]

Clueless.

[Barrykearley]

They can issue all the guidance they like. 
 

market forces is sending a very clear message that they are ignoring

[JimmytheTurbo]

Polestar owners finding it hard to sell 1 year old cars bought for £60K even at knocked down values.

 

 

[Mark Blanchard]

4 hours ago, pete said:

the goverment thinks there is too much negative press about EV`s and issued it`s own guidance 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/electric-vehicles-costs-charging-and-infrastructure/electric-vehicles-costs-charging-and-infrastructure

I can't wait for 2050 when were are 100% Net Zero.  I'm doing my bit, we've all got one common goal.  

[JimmytheTurbo]

Im doing my bit adding as much CO2 into the environment as I can. Brewing gives off loads of lovely CO2 

If CO2 drops much lower we could be in really bad situation where plants will struggle to grow. CO2 is the gas of life.

[Mark Blanchard]

41 minutes ago, JimmytheTurbo said:

Im doing my bit adding as much CO2 into the environment as I can.

Yes agree, 3 V8s here.  Net Zero can go and fcuk itself.

[C8RKH]

I'm really struggling with the CO2 maths to be honest.

As far as I can ascertain, our atmosphere is 0.04% CO2. Nitrogen and oxygen makes up around 99%.

10,000 years ago, pre the industrial revolution, the CO2 in the atmosphere was around 288 parts per million.

Today, it is around 414 ppm. So it is around 50% higher.

By the end of the century, we expect to see it double from 288 to just over 520ppm.

Water vapour can make up around 4% of the atmosphere.

The water vapour and the CO2 essentially trap the heat emitted from the earth, retaining around 50% of it (to keep the planet warm) and releases about 50% of it to space.

Common theory is that we have doubled the CO2 density in the atmosphere in 200 years, but in reality that is really 10,000 years, with a significant acceleration in the last 200 years, post the industrial revolution.

The target to limit CO2 by 2050 is an arbitrary target that has been set, to stop the increase. There is consensus that we are on a path to do that, but it might take an extra ten years, to 2060.

 

If you look at carbon emissions across ICE and EV, it is interesting to note that 46% of EV carbon emissions come from the production process, whereas only 26% are for ICE. 

The average expected life for a BEV is currently around 10 years, whereas for an ICE it is 20.

So, if the estimated whole life carbon emissions from and ICE are 24 tonnes CO2e (source: earth.org) and those of a BEV are 19 tonnes CO2e (source earth.org) then actually over a 20 year period, an ICE would be responsible for 24 tonnes CO2e, but the BEV would be responsible for 29 - 39 tonnes CO2e, assuming that a battery can be replaced to extend the BEV to a 20 year lifespan (so 29 tonnes), 39 tonnes if not and a new EV was required.  

Now that's interesting, isn't it?

By driving a Lotus ICE, and keeping it maintained and on the road for 40 years (not unreasonable or unfeasible) you are actually doing more for the environment than you are by driving a BEV, Eletre or otherwise.

Very interesting. I would think!

 

 

 

[Mark Blanchard]

100% agree.

We are getting fed a whole lot of EV propaganda by the Government and media at the moment.  Are they naive enough to think China / India and other developing nations are going to follow our lead.  China are increasing their number of coal burning power stations (belching out huge amounts of C02 into the atmosphere) so they can make more "environmentally friend" EV's to sell to us.  Total lunacy, you couldn't make it up.

https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/chinas-new-coal-power-spree-continues-as-more-provinces-jump-on-the-bandwagon/#:~:text=Coal power continues to expand,previously shelved projects were revived.

[JimmytheTurbo]

Im not against cutting pollution.

Seeing smokey old busses kicking out plumes of fumes carrying 1 or 2 passengers doesn't seem great for our environment.

So a man growing food in his back garden is now bad but imports from around the globe are good? WTAF?

Just the very start of this vid...