Coronavirus

[PaulCP]

The U.K. media always buy what anyone who declares themselves an “expert” has to sell, particularly if it is something negative.

Its all about getting that sensational headline. The truth has no place in the narrow minded world of today’s media which is why they never reveal who this “expert” is and how they are qualified to  be able to provide such information.

[Chillidoggy]

The “experts” are queueing up for their 15 minutes.

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

There was a report on BBC Breakfast this morning about a family who has booked two summer holidays for the same period. One in Fuerteventura and one in Norfolk. If they are able to go to the first, they’ll just cancel the second. Apparently this is happening more and more, particularly with postponed 2020 voucher holidays and low or no deposit holidays with balance payments 3 weeks prior to despatch. The industry is aware that cancellation rates are incredibly low at the moment as such customers hedge their bets. This also helps explain some of the boom in bookings.

Coincidentally, I was talking to a guy last night whose colleague has booked THREE summer holidays at the same time. Two abroad and one in Cornwall as a last resort, in case his two first and second choice foreign holidays aren’t possible.

He’s basically exploiting the generosity of the Cornwall holiday provider, who is trying to be fair and flexible at the moment to encourage customers back and is unaware that this booking will most likely be cancelled at the last possible moment. The holiday provider will then have to go through the whole procedure again to try and sell the holiday slot to someone else.

[ramjet]

Why don't the holiday providers start double booking slots in the anticipation that one of the bookings will cancel?

The holiday provider could look at the percentage of late cancellations that he/she get as a percentage of their rooms and then proceed to double book that percentage or just under to alleviate the 'have to find another tennant' issue.

Ahh, what do I know, I'm just an ageing fitter & machinist. Nice guy though.  

[SFO]

4 hours ago, 910Esprit said:

However, to be fair to the 'world scientific community', dont they need to consider that a more deadly, vaccine resistant, variant could evolve if there are enough cases in general circulation?   Then we'd all be in trouble...

Viruses generally do not become more deadly as that kills more or all its hosts, and end up destroying the virus.

thus far, we have had the Kent, Brazil, South African and Japan variants .. none of which have been more deadly. 

Edited May 19, 2021 by SFO

[ramjet]

I thought there was an Indian variant as well?

The transmissibility is what seems to be changing as well as some people have tested positive in Australian quarantine after returning and contact tracing has not been able to ascertain how some people have been exposed to the strain that they are testing +ve for.

I think it is quite fair to say that the world is dealing with a virus that they do not fully understand.

[SFO]

53 minutes ago, ramjet said:

I thought there was an Indian variant as well?

Yes, but we don't know anything about its transmissibility or whether it is more lethal 

[ramjet]

Well it's making a mess of India at the moment so I would say it is not very nice?

[LotusFella]

they haven't published any excess deaths figures for a long time

 

[mg4lotus]

4 hours ago, SFO said:

Viruses generally do not become more deadly as that kills more or all its hosts, and end up destroying the virus.

thus far, we have had the Kent, Brazil, South African and Japan variants .. none of which have been more deadly. 

I have also heard an expert say that about viruses. Viruses do not make a conscious decision on whether to become more deadly or not. Ebola is highly infectious and it a high mortality rate. It spreads easily then kills a lot of people then seems to disappear then it pops up again.

It's strange talking about how successful a virus is and how do you determine what criteria should be used.

It's probable the Kent variant has a higher infection rate and does have a higher mortality rate.

"this represents an increase in deaths from 2.5 to 4.1 per 1000 detected cases." 

Risk of mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1: matched cohort study | The BMJ

Also check out this graph

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-weekly_deaths_with_covid-19_on_the_death_certificate_by_date_registered

It was levelling out before Christmas but then shot up, probably due to Kent variant.

[gregs24]

2 hours ago, LotusFella said:

they haven't published any excess deaths figures for a long time

 

Do you mean this ? Excess deaths figure is negative at the moment compared to 5 year average, probably because Covid deaths are low and there are no flu related deaths either

 

[gregs24]

20 hours ago, Bibs said:

Why don't we know the number of deaths from just Covid? Under 10,000 perhaps, under 1,000 even? 

Which dream world do you live in ? 1000 deaths from Covid in the UK ? What caused those huge number of deaths in excess of normal then ? 

 

There are no secrets or conspiracies and the exact explanation of how figures are collated are publicly available. 

 

Behind the headlines: Counting COVID-19 deaths - Public health matters (blog.gov.uk)

[gregs24]

5 hours ago, SFO said:

Viruses generally do not become more deadly as that kills more or all its hosts, and end up destroying the virus.

thus far, we have had the Kent, Brazil, South African and Japan variants .. none of which have been more deadly. 

Viruses mutate in many ways and it is a relatively random process and can result in a more contagious (or less) virus and in an unconnected way a more virulent virus. What does tend to happen is that the most contagious variants rapidly overtake the less contagious and become dominant (as happened with the Kent variant). To a certain extent increased virulence does reduce transmission as the most sick spread less as they stay at home or go to hospital. The least virulent spread well because when people are not ill or even asymptomatic they are able to spread the virus more easily.

However transmissibility is far more important than virulence when it comes to epidemiology

[SFO]

From someone who knows and whose opinion is backed up by data:

 

Edited May 19, 2021 by SFO

[pete]

Sue and her sister received this message from their Pilates teacher

 

[Bibs]

[andydclements]

I went to a Pilates lesson once, to try and help with my recovery after op on the spine. The lesson started with such C*** that it caused me to get very stressed and my back went into spasm. So, you can guess how much I think Pilates teachers can be trusted for facts.

[C8RKH]

Fookwits are everywhere, even in Pilates....

[thebartman]

Pilates??  I though that was a spelling mistake

 

Go from Left to Right

[Barrykearley]

Oh my god - that is sooo funny. 

[windymiller]

so the pub earlier tonight still not accepting cash ? yet they pick up your knives and forkes etc youve just used ? same thing just wash hands after contact with anything !!! cash is king ? 🙄 (even the pharmacy at my doctors takes cash !!!)

[eeyoreish]

Odd, but these days everyone wants some kind of electronic payment. Won’t be long before anyone using or dealing in cash will automatically be judged as dodgy... 🤨

[windymiller]

and the governments of the world move a step closer to ever increasing control 🙄

[mg4lotus]

I used to use mainly cash and kept card for online purchase but since lockdown 1 I am mainly using plastic. It was a big change for me and took some getting used to. I have used cash about 5 times since lockdown 1. I have to keep a tight eye on my cashflow so I always get receipts. The way I look at it is that it is just one extra thing to do to stay alive. It's turned out to be not so onerous. The worrying thing in the long term is if charging practices change for using plastic. Another thing of concern is fraud and scams but then with cash you have to watch out for counterfeit and plain old robbery.

[gregs24]

I honestly haven't used cash for over 12 months - I have the same £10 note in my wallet as last May !

 

I am as mean as F**k mind

8 hours ago, windymiller said:

and the governments of the world move a step closer to ever increasing control 🙄

And some people's paranoia reaches new levels ...

Edited May 21, 2021 by gregs24