Coronavirus

[pete]

Italian government gave Ferrari dispensation to leave the affected area.

Macron has just announced the closing of all schools , day centres and universities

[KAS-118]

Apparently there STILL hasn’t been a formal announcement from the FIA so the journalists and mechanics have had to head for the circuit 

[gregs24]

21 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

After listening yesterday to some bloke who had his in November in China - he described three distinct phases of the virus - which he thought were different illnesses - our household are convinced we’ve all had it at Christmas.

I think this is being blown out of all proportion. The two A&E doctors I know feel exactly the same. Flu kills 40000 folks a year in the uk and it’s largely ignored year after year.

More on the Flu comparison:

Flu is a cyclical disease and the virus mutates regularly. However that mutation is slow and a degree of cross immunity lasts for many years conferring either total or partial immunity on a proportion of the population. In the case of COVID19 the entire population is naive so the number of people who will catch the disease is near to 100% of the population, although in practice nearer 85% is likely. This is because as the percentage of the population that has had the virus and become immune rises the virus has less potential new hosts to move into. At around 90% immunity natural transmission through the general public ceases - this is how vaccination works.

In terms of numbers then - COVID19 with a mortality rate of around 1% in 85% of the UK population means around 600,000 deaths. That is a lot more than Flu !

If Italy is anything to go by they have just gone past 1000 deaths in a population of 60 million people. That either means that only 16% of the population have been exposed so far (don't forget that deaths take a few weeks so there is a lag between infected numbers and deaths) or that the death rate may be lower than 1%. The natural progression of a virus through a population follows a bell curve and it may be the case that the current death rate reflects the time when 16% of the population had been infected. With infection rates doubling daily in the early stages of the spread even though the infection rate may now be falling there is a lag in the death rate by as much as 2 or 3 weeks. I would expect 10's of thousands of deaths to be the end result in Italy, and the UK will roughly follow that rate but lagging Italy by 4 weeks or so.

In the UK blanket population testing has now stopped (as is the case in other countries earlier on in the disease progression) as it provides no useful information as the virus is established. We have 500 or so confirmed positives, but it is estimated we have around 10,000 infected people at present, and that figure is growing rapidly.

There is virtually no chance you had COVID19 at Christmas unless you had been to China, as if you had, then general spread within the population would have been happening then as well. According to viral spread modelling, as a country, we would have been well ahead of Italy rather than lagging 4 weeks behind. 

7 minutes ago, KAS-118 said:

Apparently there STILL hasn’t been a formal announcement from the FIA so the journalists and mechanics have had to head for the circuit 

Pretty pointless cancelling it to be honest. They are all there and have been in contact with each other so if it is going to spread it will already have done so. Maybe race behind closed doors with no crowd.

They either needed to cancel it before everybody got there or not - but now is just based on political / emotional reasons rather than medical facts and reasoning

[scotty435]

4 minutes ago, gregs24 said:

More on the Flu comparison:

Flu is a cyclical disease and the virus mutates regularly. However that mutation is slow and a degree of cross immunity lasts for many years conferring either total or partial immunity on a proportion of the population. In the case of COVID19 the entire population is naive so the number of people who will catch the disease is near to 100% of the population, although in practice nearer 85% is likely. This is because as the percentage of the population that has had the virus and become immune rises the virus has less potential new hosts to move into. At around 90% immunity natural transmission through the general public ceases - this is how vaccination works.

In terms of numbers then - COVID19 with a mortality rate of around 1% in 85% of the UK population means around 600,000 deaths. That is a lot more than Flu !

If Italy is anything to go by they have just gone past 1000 deaths in a population of 60 million people. That either means that only 16% of the population have been exposed so far (don't forget that deaths take a few weeks so there is a lag between infected numbers and deaths) or that the death rate may be lower than 1%. The natural progression of a virus through a population follows a bell curve and it may be the case that the current death rate reflects the time when 16% of the population had been infected. With infection rates doubling daily in the early stages of the spread even though the infection rate may now be falling there is a lag in the death rate by as much as 2 or 3 weeks. I would expect 10's of thousands of deaths to be the end result in Italy, and the UK will roughly follow that rate but lagging Italy by 4 weeks or so.

In the UK blanket population testing has now stopped (as is the case in other countries earlier on in the disease progression) as it provides no useful information as the virus is established. We have 500 or so confirmed positives, but it is estimated we have around 10,000 infected people at present, and that figure is growing rapidly.

There is virtually no chance you had COVID19 at Christmas unless you had been to China, as if you had, then general spread within the population would have been happening then as well. According to viral spread modelling, as a country, we would have been well ahead of Italy rather than lagging 4 weeks behind. 

Thanks for putting things into context, this is far more serious than the Flu and I wish people would stop using it as a comparison, please follow the advice NHS guidelines and keep safe as you possibly can.

[Barrykearley]

That’s it then - anyone doing cheap will writing ??

[gregs24]

57 minutes ago, scotty435 said:

Thanks for putting things into context, this is far more serious than the Flu and I wish people would stop using it as a comparison, please follow the advice NHS guidelines and keep safe as you possibly can.

It is and actually Flu is a really poor comparison to use for all the reasons above. What I find really fascinating though is the age distribution and what is (or isn't) happening in children, that are either asymptomatic carriers or immune for some reason. I think our government has got it spot on so far with advice, the right blend of control and at the same time allowing the country to function. I think the big thing is to isolate the old, good excuse to not go and see mother in law at the weekend !

2 minutes ago, Barrykearley said:

That’s it then - anyone doing cheap will writing ??

Cheer up Barry. Unless you are in the high risk group (over 60, live in Worcestershire and drive a mixture of old Lotus's) then you will be fine !

[Barrykearley]

Bloody fantastic - I’m in the clear then.

im pretty sure even if they lock down hard - then agriculture will be an exemption trade. I’ve got 16000 hens arriving soon in a new house that needs finishing.

 

still reckon it’s been rife in the uk for a lot longer than folks currently believe 

[scotty435]

Staggering how many people on here don’t how bad things are going to get or perhaps they don’t care? Either way, I suspect none of them will be so vocal when it’s impacts on there own families, which sadly looking at Italy there is no reason it’s not going to be the same here.

[Toeside]

My opinion has changed on the situation also. Having cancelled travel for this weekend to Geneva (Originally I was going the car show but that got cancelled a few weeks ago) I was very skeptical about the whole situation and thought it was a storm in a teacup.

• The situation in Italy is very bad (reports from a friend). They don't have sufficient ventilators to keep everyone (old and sick)who is affected alive so 'choices' are having to be made. 
• There isn't any immunity at present and there isn't a vaccine as yet.
• The self isolate for two weeks being enforced by employers on their staff. This will impact on all aspects of normal life, transport of food and fuel, communication, power distribution etc
• Two young members of staff (mid 20's) testing positive at my place of work today. Right in my own back yard as it were.
• The length of time this situation will prevail impacting on our day to day lives, holidays. I think we can forget about travelling for a while.
• Ultimately this will put not only lives at risk, a significant addition in parallel to normal Flu deaths but will but impact. jobs and economic stability. Its already started on that front.

 

So having been on the flippant side I am now really concerned on how this situation will all pan out. I think this could be a world changing event 😬  but I could be wrong 🤞

[ramjet]

My companies management, both site and National, are gathering together today to work out how we should not gather together. 

[Escape]

On 11/03/2020 at 07:00, Sparky said:

Incidentally, as airline staff (well, retired) we have access to various industry discounts. Cruises are always a good deal (not that we're interested), but right now they're ridiculously cheap!  How about a 15-night Hawaii for £606?  Or 16 nights transatlantic for £314?  Or a long weekend - 3 nights Miami-Bahamas for 18 quid.  And you might even get an extra 2 weeks (or more) free...

Not a fan of cruises, but at the moment that does sound tempting just to get away from all the panic. At least on the ocean your self reliant and less affected by all the rules. Until someone on board starts coughing...

Filip

[Sparky]

As a severe asthmatic, I tend to watch these things very carefully.  Tracy and I have been 'self-isolating' to an extent for a few days now, and ramping it up.  Naturally we want to avoid the virus; also we want to mitigate any possibility of passing it on to our parents and other vulnerable individuals.  Our social diaries have been cleared, trips cancelled, and we shall do our best to avoid all but the most necessary close contact with others.  I believe it's everybody's duty to try to do this.  It WILL save lives.

I anticipate 6 months before a return to vaguely normal.  Before then I suspect we'll be looking at some significant hardships and possibly a lot of unrest.

[C8RKH]

7 hours ago, scotty435 said:

Staggering how many people on here don’t how bad things are going to get or perhaps they don’t care? Either way, I suspect none of them will be so vocal when it’s impacts on there own families, which sadly looking at Italy there is no reason it’s not going to be the same here.

Not really and I'm probably one of those "on here" you are referencing.

. I, like many, fully understand how serious it is and usually in times like this the British mentality is to accept it, understand what you need to do, do it, then take the piss and laugh in the face of adversity. Funnily enough it is people like us who are just getting on with it, following the official advice not the hysteria, taking sensible precautions not panic buying, who are keeping a balanced perspective whilst being positive. Who are not rushing to doctors etc unnecessarily.

We could of course all rush out, selfishly panic buy, spread fear, worry and misinformation (just look at the shite being spread and spouted on Faceshite by supposed experts! - some of that advice will kill!), stoke civil unrest and general anarchy because we're all going to die yadda yadda....

Don't make the mistake of judging  people on a bloody car forum of all things, light heartedly taking the piss, lull you into thinking that we are stupid, not aware, not actively taking note of the official advice, not caring about our families etc. Maybe we're just keeping ourselves positive rather than wallowing in doom. Just a different perspective/outlook.

Keep safe everyone, but that doesn't mean you can't be upbeat and positive.

 

[Barrykearley]

this sums it up perfectly 

[Sparky]

18 minutes ago, C8RKH said:

usually in times like this the British mentality is to accept it, understand what you need to do, do it, then take the piss and laugh in the face of adversity

Spot on!

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

My wife was talking to a cashier at our local big Asda. The other day one customer came in and simply emptied the shelves of pasta, so no-one else could buy any. They spent £300 on pasta, nothing else.

I think we should be closing the schools from Monday onwards. We’re going to have to do it sooner or later anyway. A week saved now could help limit transmission in certain communities. I have school age kids and will just have to get on with it. We do it every school holidays anyway, so it’s a minor inconvenience in the overall scheme of things.

[C8RKH]

Not everyone is able/can afford childcare for school holidays. For many this will be a step too far if it means they cannot work to earn.

All I have read from experts is that the UK Government seems to be pedalling the right advice and has the balance right. I'm minded to let the experts provide the advice whilst I just take the piss 😆😆😆😆

Sod's law says I'll be one of the statistics but for the wife it'll be like winning the lottery!

[LotusLeftLotusRight]

I get the potential cost to parents, but it’s not a normal situation. Employers might be happy to extend un(paid) leave, as it reduces the chance of passing on the infection at the work place. Self-employed will be harder, but most of them must have options (relatives, friends etc.) in case of emergencies.

We are all going to have to make major sacrifices. None more so than me: I am currently looking at the V11 Vehicle tax reminder for my Evora. Should I spend £555 for 12 months motoring, when I might not get to use it much, or would that money be better spent on pasta? 

Since I can’t buy pasta, I may as well hand it to the Treasury to help keep the UK afloat.

[C8RKH]

I think the reality for many, and probably those that are less prepared financially, is that they will be laid off. If people are moving they are not spending. If not spending then goods and services are not being bought. So to cut costs suppliers will shed staff as fast as they can and that will hit hard those on zero hour or temporary contracts first as they are easy and cheap to let go.

It's not going to be great for a lot of people but at least in the UK no one needs to worry about paying for the healthcare they may need.  Covid19 testing is, I believe, around USD 2k per test!

 

[PaulCP]

9 hours ago, scotty435 said:

Staggering how many people on here don’t how bad things are going to get or perhaps they don’t care? Either way, I suspect none of them will be so vocal when it’s impacts on there own families, which sadly looking at Italy there is no reason it’s not going to be the same here.

It would help no end though if we didn’t have so much mis-information and mis-reporting of the facts by the media in their continuous attempt to have that sensational headline.

The BBC are in their element again now though, god how they’ve missed brexit. They've now found something else that they can continually repeat and invite self proclaimed experts in to the studios to be asked never ending inane questions.

[Escape]

In Bhellgium, we'll go into lockdown tonight at midnight. Though we shouldn't call it a lockdown... It's small miracle any decisions have been taken at all, seeing as we've been without a full goevernment for 450 days (again).

All bars, restaurants and events will be closed/cancelled, shops are advised to close unless necessary (medical, food, feed, fuel, ...), especially over the weekend to avoid crowds. Schools will close on Monday, most employees are told to work from home whenever possible. I'm one of the lucky ones, I can do pretty much all the work from home and the time saved commuting means more time to spend with the cars (and the misses and the dog). Sport events, if not cancelled, will be played behind closed doors. Which the past week often meant large crowds gathering outside the stadium, so not much of an improvement.

I do question closing the schools. I get trying to avoid spreading the virus, but where do the children need to go? Schools are obliged to offer something for those children that can't stay at home (staying with grandparents is also strongly advised against), so wouldn't it be better to just keep schools open and education going but implement hygienic measures?

Again, I get the measures imposed, you can't be seen not doing anything. And it is necessary to try and spread to load on the medical system. But it all seems rather haphazard and likely to induce more panic than needed. The impact on the economy could prove to be a greater threat than the virus itself. There's a few people close to me at risk, I do worry for them! As for myself, I've not been to a doctor or hospital in 25 years and plan to keep it that way.

Filip

[mayevora]

11 hours ago, Barrykearley said:

That’s it then - anyone doing cheap will writing ??

If you do require my full name and address for beneficiary purpose of any Post Death Cov19 Esprit/Evora gift I am more than happy to give you that peace of mind knowing they are going to a good/caring home just as long as a ‘deep clean’ had been carried out pre-transfer of V5 to me. 
Been a pleasure knowing you and will fondly think of you each time I eat chicken. 😷😜

[Chillidoggy]

If the pasta runs out, I’m going for a Chinese.

[MPx]

4 hours ago, Sparky said:

Naturally we want to avoid the virus...

Of course we would all like to avoid the virus, but if Greg's post above has any basis in fact, he suggests that ... ~85% of us will have to get it at some stage unless the onset can be delayed long enough for a vaccine to be developed which at a predicted 18 months (15 more?) seems unlikely.  So given that we will be getting it... I'm hoping to be in the 99.x who will survive it and ideally the 80% where the symptoms are officially deemed "mild".  Timing is all that the Gov policy seems to be trying to affect, I don't think that they are saying that it can be avoided.  Maybe those of us lucky enough to be otherwise healthy should fall on our swords early to try to get to the 85% immunity level quicker??

[Sparky]

Equally, as I'm likely to need 'specialist care', I have considered early infection myself before the system can't cope!